Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

🔊 4/20/19 | “On Deck” Weekend Podcast w/ Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

Good morning everyone! I’m going to keep today’s article relatively short and sweet, as I’m about to rush off to visit family on this Easter Sunday. Today brings us an 11 game main slate on DraftKings and a nine game main slate on FanDuel (they left both the games in Texas and Coors off the main slate for some reason). This is a loaded pitching slate at the top with a bunch of solid options in the high and mid-tiers. The value pitching tier is a bit ugly so we'll try to take a closer look at that. There are plenty of places for stacks and offense today. Here are the match-ups and Vegas lines:

As far as weather goes, there is really nothing to report. After several days of PPD threats, I’m seeing almost no rain to worry about for today’s slate. Pretty cool temperatures across the board and at Wrigley Field the wind appears it will be a non-issue. It looks like we can play this one straight up today. 

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they're released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Chris Archer (DK: $8.9K, FD: $10.1K) | RHP | PIT vs SFG

Is it me or are suspensions completely useless for pitchers? Archer is “coming back” from his 5-game suspension today to make his regularly scheduled start against the Giants. Technically, he didn't miss any time since he was in between starts anyway. He seems to have found new life since he was traded to Pittsburgh last season. He’s off to a strong start this year going 1-0 in three starts with a 2.00 ERA and a higher but still respectable 3.29 xFIP. His WHIP is at 1.00 with a 92.6% LOB% and he’s striking out 34.3% of batters in the early going. It shouldn’t come as a total shock, as his 2018 numbers were pretty good including a 3.73 SIERA and 25.2% strikeouts. What’s most appealing about him this afternoon is the matchup against a Giants team that, well, sucks. I don’t mean to offend any of you San Francisco fans out there but when I look at this lineup on paper, there is just nothing that makes me hesitate about rostering a pitcher against them. Against right-handed pitching this season they have a .254 wOBA, .136 ISO, and .585 OPS. They are striking out 24.6% of the time while walking just 7.4% of the time. Archer carries plenty of upside, enough to compete with some of the more elite arms on this slate, with added safety in this match up and he’ll save you some money (particularly on DraftKings) to spend elsewhere.   

David Price (DK: $8.3K, FD: $9.1K) | LHP | BOS @ TAM

The Rays are in first place and the Red Sox are in last. To be honest, I’m not totally shocked the Rays are in first. This was a 90 win team last season. It’s more the fact that Boston is in last right now that’s unexpected. It’s a long season and I have little doubt that Boston will be in the hunt at the end but it’s very likely they are chasing Tampa instead of being chased when all is said and done. In the meantime, these teams will face off again tonight with David Price taking the hill against his former team. Despite the first place record, the Rays have been pretty poor against left-handed pitching this season. They have an average .322 wOBA and a well below average .126 ISO. They are also striking out 28.2% of the time, which is fourth highest in baseball. This should provide a boost to Price who has been the lone member of the Boston rotation to show any sign of life so far this season. In 2018 he had a 3.82 SIERA and 1.07 WHIP with 24% strikeouts and only 5.9% walks. His GB/FB and hard to soft contact ratio were both average and he only allowed a .296 wOBA to lefties and a .301 wOBA to righties. He faced Tampa Bay five times going 2-1 with a 4.16 xFIP. He had one bad start that inflated his numbers a bit on April 28th where he went 5.2 innings allowed six runs (five earned) on eight hits including two home runs. Aside from that start, he never gave up more than two earned runs in any of the others including two starts where he went seven innings and gave up no runs at all. Similar to Archer, Price finds himself in a match up today that at least gives him a chance to compete with the more elite arms on the slate but with a fairly significant savings (again particularly on DraftKings).  

Dereck Rodriguez (DK: $6.6K, FD: $7.1K) | RHP | SFG @ PIT

There is nothing that stands out to me in the value-tier today, which is why I’ve talked up Price and Archer over options like Strasburg and Syndergaard. Those guys can potentially be paired together and give you the upside you need while avoiding the rather ugly cheap pitching options today. If I HAD to choose someone in this range, I think there are a couple players you could consider. First, Trevor Richards is at home today in the most pitcher friendly park in baseball. He’s volatile but has strikeout upside and is facing a Nationals team striking out 25.5% of the time against right-handed pitching. In addition, Anthony Rendon left yesterday’s game after being hit by a pitch on the elbow and is considered day to day. Reports indicate he will be evaluated this morning. If he’s out today, then you’re looking at Richards against a much more watered down lineup as Rendon has literally been the heart and soul of this team in the early going. If you’re not feeling Richards, you can also consider Dereck Rodriguez. He lacks the upside I’m typically looking for with his average 20% strikeout rate and taking on a Pirates team that only strikes out 20.3% of the time to right-handed pitching. But Rodriguez does carry a nice floor with his respectable 3.90 xFIP and 1.07 WHIP. Although the Pirates have solid plate discipline and don’t strikeout much, they also don’t pose much of a threat for runs either, with just a .305 wOBA and .152 ISO. This is a pitcher’s park and the game has a low total of just seven runs. Rodriguez should be able to stay competitive in this game, eat up some innings, limit the runs and then you just need to hope he racks up enough strikeouts to return value. It’s not my favorite play but you could definitely do worse.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

The Astros are the top stack of the day against Shelby Miller in Texas and it's not even close. They have an implied team total of six runs. The Rockies are next, against Jared Eickhoff in Coors Field. The Colorado bats have been underwhelming so far but they are always a high ceiling option when at home. This is a big slate with a lot of options so let's talk about a few others that are a little less obvious:

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tyler Chatwood (LHP – Chicago Cubs)

Okay, so let’s get this one out of the way first. I do not understand how Chatwood has a job. You’re telling me there isn’t anyone better in the Chicago farm system that could eat up some innings for this team that’s supposedly a contender? You could tell me that Arizona was rolling out their entire AAA lineup tonight and I would still have interest in stacking them. In 2018, Chatwood threw 103.2 innings. He had a 6.28 SIERA, 1.80 WHIP, 17.7% strikeouts, and 19.8% walks. Please re-read the last sentence. He has a WHIP approaching two with more walks than strikeouts. His only saving grace is an elite ground ball rate at 54.7%. That doesn’t really matter if you walk everyone you face but still worth pointing out. He struggles even more against lefties which is really scary against a Diamondbacks team that can roll out several of them. Chatwood had a 5.83 xFIP, 2.16 WHIP, 15.5% strikeout rate and allowed a .402 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season. Everyone in the Arizona lineup is in play.

Minnesota Twins vs Dylan Bundy (RHP – Baltimore Orioles)

Happy Dylan Bundy day! The only thing that stinks about the Twins stack is it will probably be popular after their complete destruction of Baltimore that is happening as I type this. Right now, it’s 10pm EST on Saturday night and Nelson Cruz just put another one in the seats to make it 15-4 Twins in the eighth inning. Minnesota has SEVEN home runs in this game and they hit four in game one of this double header. Now they will face Dylan Bundy who gave up the most home runs in baseball last season and is currently tied for second for most home runs allowed this season, with seven already in just four starts. He allowed four home runs in one game to Oakland a couple of weeks ago. With the long ball continuing to be a major issue, Bundy will be a priority to stack against every time he takes the mound. As a team, the Twins are swinging the bat very well against right-handed pitching. They have a .336 wOBA, .198 ISO, and 111 wRC+ with only 19.9% strikeouts. Polanco (.506 wOBA, .337 ISO in 57 plate appearances), Garver (.483 wOBA, .500 ISO in just 24 plate appearances), Cruz (.381 wOBA, .182 ISO in 41 plate appearances), Kepler (.363 wOBA, .245 ISO in 55 plate appearances), and Rosario (.327 wOBA, .264 ISO in 47 plate appearances) are all high on my list today. I’m showing the number of plate appearances to remind you we are still working with smaller samples this season. I’m typically not totally comfortable with the numbers until around 100 plate appearances although some say that’s too many and others say it’s not enough. Outside of those options, you can also consider players like Cave (.357 wOBA), Astudillo (.334 wOBA), and Buxton (.325 wOBA) as less expensive, more bottom of the order options. There are very few bats I wouldn’t have interest in against Bundy, so wait to see what the confirmed Minnesota lineup is today and start stacking.

Detroit Tigers vs Reynaldo Lopez (RHP – Chicago White Sox)

An inexpensive off the board stack I have my eye on today is the Detroit Tigers at home in their very hitter friendly ballpark. This game is currently showing a 9.5 O/U with the Tigers as favorites. On paper, there isn’t much to like within the Tigers lineup. As a team, they have a poor .276 wOBA and .126 ISO while striking out 25.4% of the time. This is all about the matchup against Lopez who is an extreme fly ball pitcher and gives up a lot of home runs. In four starts (again, small sample) he’s allowed 55.4% fly balls and a 19.4% HR/FB. He’s tied with, you guessed it, our friend Dylan Bundy (among others) for the second most home runs allowed this season at seven. He’s got nearly as many walks (14.4%) as strikeouts (17.5%), a 2.12 WHIP, and a 7.20 xFIP (8.84 ERA). At this rate, I’m not sure he lasts in the majors much longer. Nobody will pay attention to this ugly Detroit lineup on a larger slate like this but guys like Niko Goodrum (.384 wOBA, .225 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (.333 wOBA) could serve as center pieces for a very affordable stack with much higher upside than it will usually have this season.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Robinson Cano (DK: $3.6K, FD: $3.4K) | 2B | NYM @ STL

The stat cast models are really liking the Mets today so they are another team to keep an eye on for your stack list against Dakota Hudson. Cano is jumping off the page given his extremely cheap price on DraftKings. He has an unexciting .485 wOBA+ISO against right-handed pitching over this last 150 games but in the last couple of weeks, he’s really kicked it up a notch with a 48.1% hard contact rate, a 93.8 mph average exit velocity, and three barreled balls. Hudson is allowing a .488 wOBA and .260 ISO to left-handed hitters in his short career so far. Mets lefties all day today.

Eddie Rosario (DK: $4.9K, FD: $4.1K) | OF | MIN @ BAL

Rosario is heating up in a big way and a match up against Dylan Bundy isn’t likely to slow that down. In yesterday’s double-header, he went 5-9 with four runs scored, three home runs, and four runs batted in. He has 18 or more fantasy points in seven of his last 12 games. In his last 150 games he has a .619 wOBA+ISO against right-handed pitching and the recent stat cast data shows a 38.5% hard contact rate, 93.1 mph average exit velocity, and five barreled balls in the past two weeks. If you need a reminder of how juicy this match up is, go back and read the section about stacking the Twins. Fire him up against Bundy today.

David Peralta (DK: $4.4K, FD: $3.8K) | OF | ARI @ CHC

One of my favorite hitters in baseball, Peralta is currently in the midst of a ten game fantasy point streak and has had at least five fantasy points in every single game this season except for one, an 0-4 performance against the Rangers back on April 9th. We talked about Chatwood already so there’s no need to repeat myself there. Peralta has an awesome .663 wOBA+ISO in his last 150 games against right-handed pitching. He’s a top 10% hitter with 2.17 FP/PA and he gets a nice park boost today hitting in Wrigley Field. He’s reasonably priced on DraftKings and under priced on FanDuel in my opinion. He’s likely to be one of my highest owned hitters today.

Best of luck today! Be sure to give the “On Deck” podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney a listen if you haven’t already! You can find it linked at the top of the newsletter.

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