Top MLB DFS Plays 4/21 | Breaking Down a Dicey Midweek Main Slate

April 21, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Don’t let your boss catch you researching/watching baseball on this split-slate Wednesday! Good luck to those of you attempting to take down that early GPP. Remember that today’s main slate is going to get going about an hour earlier than usual with the first game starting up at 6:10 ET. We only have six games on the evening docket and weather could slim that game selection down a bit more, unfortunately. It’s setting up as a tricky little slate so let’s not waste much time and get right to it!

Note: Once again, DraftKings has included the second leg of a doubleheader (PIT @ DET) in its main slate. Not sure how much I’ll talk about that match-up since it will only play seven innings, but with a limited amount of match-ups on tap and weather threatening to postpone multiple games, we may have to keep it on our radar.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

Oh boy, here we go…

CWS @ CLE: Cold, windy, and wet conditions will make for some pretty miserable baseball weather. If they decide that they don’t want the players and fans to be out there for 3+ hours, we could see a postponement. UPDATE: The game has been PPD.

ATL @ NYY: Rain is gone by first pitch and will leave behind 15-20 mph winds blowing OUT to right center. Bump to bats.

ARI @ CIN: About a 20-25% chance of scattered showers before the game that may bleed over to the scheduled first pitch (6:40 ET). Could see a late start or early delay, but all other signs point towards them getting this game in.

TOR @ BOS: Here is the other major PPD threat of the evening. I’m just going to post what meteorologist Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) has to say about this one:

“Oy. Two broken storm lines headed to Boston tonight, one just before first pitch, one smack dab in the middle of the game. I say "broken" because it's not a solid storm line, there's likely to be some gaps in the coverage, and maybe Boston gets lucky and shoots the gap on both as those storms roll through... it's possible, but I doubt it. More likely they get smacked by one or both of these lines, keeping the area wet in some capacity and/or awaiting imminent rain from 6pm - 10pm. That's not great. This game is dicey. I'm going O/R... and maybe that's on the high side, but it feels riskier than some of these other games I have tagged ORNG, so it's O/R for now, and I'll re-evaluate later.”

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tyler Mahle (RHP) | DK: $9.5k, FD: $8.8k | vs. ARI

If spending up on a pitcher, I’m leaning towards taking the $600 (DK) and $1,400 (FD) in savings by dropping down from Aaron Civale (DK: $10.1k, FD: $10.2k) to Mahle. In my mind, both have similar ceilings today and Mahle will have a clearer pathway to earning a win with the softer match-up. Cincinnati is also the heaviest favorite on the slate (-175). Mahle would appear to have the highest strikeout upside on the slate. Since the start of 2020, Mahle has a slate-high 31.9% kRate and he’s already K’d up 22 batters in 14.0 innings this season -- good for a monster 39.3% kRate. Back on April 9th, he held this same D-Backs team scoreless and hitless across 4.0 innings of work (92 pitches) while striking out six, though he did issue four walks. In his fourth start, we may see Mahle push closer to 100 pitches and if he can get quicker outs more often, he’ll have a better shot at playing further into the game (hasn’t played more than 5.0 innings in any of his three starts). The D-Backs offense is a bit more dangerous than their stats really give them credit for, but I’ll happily side with Mahle here due to his strikeout potential.

UPDATE: Following the CWS/CLE postponement, Mahle becomes the clear-cut top pitching play on the board. Incoming mega chalk (but I’m likely biting).

David Peterson (LHP) | DK: $7.1k, FDL $8.5k | @ CHC

Peterson certainly worked out for us in his last start, so I’ll be doubling down on him in back-to-back starts in hopes that he finds some continued success. I’m not expecting another 10 Ks tonight, but hey, ya never know. The Cubs have been much better versus lefties (.341 wOBA, 114 wRC+) than righties (.275 wOBA, 72 wRC+) but their 31.5% kRate versus southpaws is the second highest mark in the league. Peterson is playing in just his second MLB season but across his 59.2 IP, he has posted plenty of average to above average numbers: 3.92 ERA, 4.65 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP, 22.3% kRate, 11.1% SwStr%, with an average fastball velocity of 92.3 mph. His DFS floor is a tad questionable but we’ve seen him show off his strong ceiling already this year. He does have quite the pricing discrepancy between the two main sites. On FanDuel I’d be inclined to pay the extra $300 for Mahle and view Peterson as more of a GPP pivot. I do believe on DraftKings that Mahle + Peterson will be a popular cash SP1/SP2 combo and it’s likely the direction I’d lean.

Jakob Junis (RHP) | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.3k | vs. TB

Junis is slinging a lot more fastballs this year (while also having added a cutter to his pitch arsenal) and lowering the number of sinkers and sliders he’s throwing. In short, it seems to be working. Through 12.0 IP (two starts, two relief appearances), Junis has accumulated a low 1.50 ERA with a 2.76 xFIP, 2.79 SIERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 32.6% kRate. That sub-3.00 xFIP and SIERA tells us that his success isn’t exactly a fluke. Of course, it’s only twelve innings of work so we can’t put too much weight on the numbers just yet. But he’s an interesting value pitcher to target in GPPs as he looks to bring a Rays offense back to earth after they racked up 14 runs on 17 hits last night.

Note: In case he finds some more vintage form, Corey Kluber at $6,500 on FanDuel is worth a GPP punt, especially if the Braves are missing Ronald Acuna Jr. once again. Not interested in him at $9,300 on DK though.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: If the game plays, the Red Sox are in the most appealing spot of the day for offenses and the Blue Jays wouldn’t be a bad option either going against Garrett Richards. Otherwise, no single specific offense is leaping off the page at me as an obvious play.

Atlanta Braves vs. Corey Kluber (RHP), NYY

With those 15-20 mph winds gusting out to right center field, both offenses in this game could really go off. With the TOR @ BOS game at risk of getting PPD, this is maybe the preferred match-up to go to for bats. Kluber has only pitched 47.0 major league innings since 2018 and through three appearances this season (10.1 IP) he is showing a considerable amount of rust. He has already given up three home runs and has put a ton of runners on the bases with a 2.23 WHIP while allowing a .364 AVG. Atlanta is smoking righty pitching over the last two weeks and their .367 wOBA, .201 ISO, and 129 wRC+ ranks second in that span. Their 15 home runs against righties (last two weeks) are tied for first. Obviously, it would be a MAJOR boost to the Braves lineup if Ronald Acuna Jr. (DTD, abdomen) is back in the mix since he is responsible for a huge chunk of their damage on offense. But, even if he is out again, the rest of this offense is due to step up sooner or later. Looking for a big night out of ‘em today.

Update: Acuna Jr. will not be in the starting lineup today.

Kansas City Royals vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), TB

What are the odds Wacha comes out and throws another gem like the one he put together last Friday against the Yankees? I don’t want to completely rule it out because crazy things do happen in baseball. But for now, I’ll side with history and go with the narrative of “Michael Wacha is still a below average starting pitcher.” This current Royals roster does have a combined .283 AVG and .357 wOBA against Wacha (75 PA). While the KC offense as a whole has been pretty mediocre, the top half of this batting order has some respectable power against righties. I wouldn’t call this a slam dunk stack suggestion, but with limited options, the Royals look like a team capable of putting up 6+ runs tonight.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP), CIN

Simple game theory leverage spot here. Mahle is [almost certainly] going to be the chalkiest pitcher on the slate so very few people will be rolling out Diamondback stacks. Also, it isn’t as if Mahle is some longstanding top of the rotation ace who is immune to getting tagged up. Over their last 10 games, the D-Backs’.318 wOBA versus RHPs ranks 8th in the league and their 99 wRC+ puts them at 11th. They’ve also scored a respectable 4.8 runs/gm in that span. Basically, they’ve been average/above average and average offenses pop off all the time in baseball.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

Some one-off candidates to consider outside of players on teams mentioned above in the stack section:

OF JD Martinez | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Trent Thornton (RHP), TOR

Again, it’s pretty likely this game gets PPD, but if not then Martinez will be one of the preferred studs to target on the slate. Hitting .393 with a .932 wOBA+ISO against RHPs over his last 20 games.

OF Jesse Winker | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

Great lead-off lefty bat to get into lineups going against Kelly, who has allowed 44.9% Hard Contact to LHBs over his career. Winker is batting .370 on the season and has a .239 ISO against RHPs over his last 20 games. Assuming Naquin is batting second again, I wouldn’t mind running a little lefty mini-stack here with OF Tyler Naquin (DK: $5.1k, FD: $4k).

2B/3B/SS Joey Wendle | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Jakob Junis (RHB), KC

Swinging a very hot bat lately. Last five games: 10-for-21 (.476) with a .566 wOBA, .333 ISO, and 283 wRC+. If Junis’ numbers come back down to earth a bit in this game, Wendle should be a reason why. Wouldn’t mind rolling with another lefty mini-stack with either Austin Meadows or Brandon Lowe (could just run all three).

OF Brandon Nimmo | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), CHC

Seems like I jinxed Nimmo yesterday as he went 0-for-5 with three Ks. But he’s still an affordable piece to a Mets lineup that is in a sneaky solid spot versus Davies today. Only thing is the weather is just going to be crumby for hitters up in Chicago. Nimmo is still boasting a .400 batting average this season (ranks 4th in MLB) with a 173 wRC+ (23rd in MLB).

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

2B Ozzie Albies | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Corey Kluber (RHP), NYY

With those 15-20 mph winds gusting out to right center field in New York tonight, I believe we should expect to see a few home runs fly over the fence in this game. I wanted to take the easy route and go with Ronald Acuna Jr. as my HR call but sadly it looks like he won't be available tonight. So, I’m opting for Ozzie Albies. He may be having a slow start to his season, batting just .150, but he’s still generating power with a respectable .185 ISO. He’ll also be switch hitting from the left side of the plate against Kluber, who has traditional splits and historically struggles more against lefties.

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports), and The Welsh's (@IsItTheWelsh) HR Calls for each slate. If you throw it a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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