By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Preview & Strategy Guide ⚾

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Tuesday rolls in loaded with some terrific MLB action. Unfortunately, this is one of those days where the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates do not sync up in terms of their game selections. The DK main slate starts up at 6:30 ET and features 13 games. Meanwhile, the FanDuel main slate begins at the more typical time of 7:05 ET and contains eight games. For the purposes of this newsletter, I’ll be focusing on the full scale 13-game slate but I will make note of any players that don’t fall on the FD main slate. With the exception of the MIN @ OAK game, FanDuel does have a four-game “early only” slate beginning at 6:35 ET which contains the remaining games that DK included onto their main. I know it’s pretty annoying when this happens, especially for people who play on both sites, but what can ya do?

Note: On DK, the MIN @ OAK game beginning at 6:30 ET is the first game of a doubleheader and will only play 7 innings. That’s a pretty significant downgrade to bats and I’m only somewhat interested in one of the pitchers (Manaea). So, for the most part, I’m just leaning towards ignoring that game. Not sure why DK included it onto their main slate.

Okay, plenty to get into so let’s go!

Match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

PIT @ DET: Near freezing temps with rain all day. Expect this one to get PPD, perhaps even by the time you’re reading this. I won’t be writing up any player in this game.

ARI @ CIN: Game should play mostly dry but precipitation could come in late and cause issues. As of now, it is more likely than not that they’re able to get this game in. Winds also blowing out to right at 10 mph.

ATL @ NYY / STL @ WAS / SF @ PHI: We’re still a long way away from the hot/humid summer weather, but with temps pushing towards 70 degrees at first pitch of these three games, these are some of the better hitting conditions on the slate. Winds also blowing OUT in all three games. Not a monumental boost to the bats, but could see quite a few HRs here.

NYM @ CHC / HOU @ COL: These games will play in cold, near-freezing conditions. Bump to pitchers (though not a major downgrade to the Coors Field bats).

BAL @ MIA: Roof could be open. If so, air temps will be about 80 degrees throughout the game. Potential bump to hitters.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Corbin Burnes (RHP) | DK: $10.8k, FD: $10.5k | @ SD

I was hoping the Padres match-up would keep Burnes’ salaries down a bit, but it makes total sense why he is priced at the top of the pitching totem pole today. It is a rarity that you'll see the most expensive arm on the slate take the mound as a slight underdog. But through three starts (18.1 IP), Burnes has an absurd 48.4% kRate (19.7% SwStr%), 0.49 ERA, 1.18 xFIP, 0.22 WHIP, 56.7% Ground Ball Rate, and he has yet to issue a walk. His fastball velocity has averaged a spicy 97.4 mph and he has stranded 100% of hitters who reached base. He’s averaging 33.3 DKFP/53.33 FDFP in that stretch as well. Surely, these numbers are unsustainable, but for now, I’d be comfortable paying up for Burnes until he gives us reason not to. Also, what an absolutely brutal stretch of starting pitchers these Padres have had to face!

Zack Wheeler (RHP) | DK:$9.8k, FD: $9.4k | vs. SF

Wheeler could be an interesting pivot off of a likely chalky Burnes if you’re still looking to get a higher-end pitcher. The main appeal is the potential strikeout upside. The Giants have a 30.3% kRate versus RHPs this season, which is the highest mark in the league. Wheeler has shown an immense ceiling already this season when he held the Braves to one hit and zero runs while striking out 10 batters across 7.0 innings back on April 3rd. While his two starts following that performance were nowhere near as inspiring, he is still rocking a solid 26.7% kRate, 3.00 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, and 1.28 WHIP across 18.0 IP while averaging 97.0 mph with the fastball. Not only do the Giants striking out plenty against righties, but they’re also struggling to create offense with a team 75 wRC+ (ranks 27th). The Phillies are the second heaviest favorite on the slate (-157) and the Giants have a low 3.9 implied run total.

Jon Gray (RHP) | DK: $7.3k, FD: $6.6k | vs. HOU

The obvious risk is obvious and Gray should only be utilized as a contrarian GPP option. It’s of course never a safe strategy to trust a pitcher taking the mound in Coors Field. However, Gray’s career numbers are actually slightly better at home and he has already averaged 21.8 DKFP/37.5 FDFP in his two starts in Coors already this year. Hitting conditions also aren’t great either which could handicap the Coors Field batter’s advantage a bit. The other appeal for Gray is the fact that he’ll be pitching against the depleted Astros who are still without three of their most impactful hitters (Bregman, Altuve, Alvarez). Since those guys have been out of the picture (April 14th onward) due to health/safety protocols, the Astros have hit RHPs for just a .200 AVG, .238 wOBA, .063 ISO, and have posted a 56 wRC+ -- all bottom five figures in that span.

4 ET Update: It looks like Houston will be getting some of those hitters back in action tonight. Downgrades the Gray appeal a bit. Still, he's a major GPP leverage play.

Luis Castillo (RHP) | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8k (Early Only) | vs. ARI

Here is some incoming SP2 chalk on DraftKings (weather permitting). Castillo got rocked in his season debut but locked down Pittsburgh in his second start, good for 26.8 DKFP/46 FDFP. In his most recent start against the Giants, even though he got tagged up for a couple of homers and a few runs early, he still managed to grind out five innings and K up seven batters and salvaged a decent outing. Arizona has been a bottom 10 offense versus RHPs this season (80 wRC+) and they’ve averaged just 3.91 runs/gm on the road. Today, Vegas has them pinned for 3.4 implied runs and Cincy will be solid -145 moneyline favorites. The $6,600 DK price tag is blatantly too cheap.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: People are always going to target Coors Field despite the Astros being without their best offensive players (4 ET Update: Looks like Houston will actually have some of those hitters back in the lineup tonight) and the Rockies competing for the title of “worst lineup in the league” honors. As of now, no other team stands out as a super obvious stack so ownership should be spread out across the board.

Miami Marlins* vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

*Early Only Slate on FD

Just about every Marlins bat is going to reside within an affordable salary range and they’ll draw one of the best pitching match-ups on the slate. Since the start of the 2019 season (85.2 IP), Harvey has given up a .200+ ISO and .370+ wOBA to both sides of the plate while giving up 2.2 HR/9. In that span, Harvey holds a 7.35 ERA, 5.27 xFIP, 15.4% kRate, 1.67 WHIP, and is allowing 43.3% Hard Contact. If Harvey only goes about 4 or 5 innings tonight, he’ll be backed up by a fairly average Orioles bullpen. There’s also potential for the roof in Miami to be open tonight, where air temps will be about 80 degrees. The Marlins are cheap for a reason but tonight could be one of the spots where they can pop off for 7+ runs and a couple of homers.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

I guess it’s time to find out whether or not Patrick Corbin is broken or not. He has looked abysmal in his two starts so far this season and has only been able to last a combined 6.1 innings. He has already given up 15 ER (21.32 ERA) on 12 hits (4 HRs) and 7 walks, equating to a 3.00 WHIP. The velocity on his fastball is down nearly two mph compared to his career average and his whole throwing motion just looks out of sync. If he is forced out of the game early once again, the Washington bullpen (which has been pretty bad) will have to shoulder some additional innings once again. The Cardinals came through for us yesterday and exploded for 12 runs along with a few homers, so let’s see if they can parlay that into a similar performance today.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Baltimore Orioles* vs. Nick Neidert (RHP), MIA

*Early Only Slate on FD

I expect the Marlins bats to be the primary target of this game as it is fairly easy to just pick on Matt Harvey. So, expect the O’s bats to pretty much go overlooked. Baltimore has been pretty terrible against righty pitching and their 74 wRC+ versus RHPs ranks second to last in the league. But over the last two weeks, they are creating 37.9% Hard Contact, which is the second-highest rate in the league in that span. Their team .174 ISO (last two weeks) is also very respectable and checks in at 10th. So they’re getting some power out of their bats and could be hitting in favorable 80-degree conditions if Miami opens up the roof tonight. Neidert is still a young, unproven MLB pitcher with just 17.1 IP under his belt and shouldn’t be someone to avoid just yet. The Marlins bullpen is also prone to giving up the big fly, with a 1.68 HR/9 rate this season (3rd highest).

One-Off Hitters ☝️

Some one-off candidates to consider outside of players on teams mentioned above in the stack section:

OF Mike Trout | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

Trout was big time chalk yesterday and promptly went 0-for-4 with 3 Ks. If people are off of him tonight, can’t hate on the idea of going back to him against the ghost of Jordan Lyles.

OF Bryce Harper | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

Another premium hitter whose bat is heating up. Five barreled balls and 47.8% Hard Contact vs. RHPs last two weeks.

2B/3B Josh Harrison | DK: $4.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), PHI

Hitting .440 on the year and has some strong BvP history against Wainwright. Owns a .382 wOBA with a HR against Wain-o over his last 22 PA against him.

C Omar Narvaez | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), SD

Narvaez has been inching up the batting order and has some legitimate power paired with an affordable catcher price tag. Not really scared at all with the match-up with Chris Paddack.

OF Brandon Nimmo | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | Jake Arrieta (RHP), CHC

Tough HR hitting conditions in this game but Nimmo doesn’t necessarily need to hit it over the fence to return value. His .480 wOBA over the last two weeks ranks 6th in the MLB and he has racked up a 206 wRC+ in that span as well. Very solid BvP history against Arrieta also.

3B/2B/SS Ehire Adrianza | DK: $2k, FD: $2.4k (Early Only) | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

Ya won’t need much for this value bat to pay off and Adrianza has hit .312 with a .413 wOBA versus RHPs in his last 20 games.

Lineup Note: He is hitting the leadoff tonight

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

2B/SS Jazz Chisholm Jr. | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

What an entertaining young player Chisholm has been this season. On the year, his .468 wOBA, .350 ISO, and 199 wRC+ all rank inside the top 10 in baseball. His seven barreled balls and 96.4 mph exit velocity over the last 14 days both put him inside the top 95th percentile as well. The Marlins stack against Matt Harvey was talked about above, and Chisholm would have to be a core part of that stack. Would love to see him start to move up further in the batting order. Maybe a big home run out of the six hole tonight can make that happen.

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports), and The Welsh's (@IsItTheWelsh) HR Calls for each slate. If you throw it a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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