By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Main Slate Breakdown

Woo buddy, it did not take long for this evening’s main slate to turn into a bit of a pain in the neck to write about. This is another day where there will be quite the discrepancy between the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates. And a couple of games that had their scheduled start times moved up widened the gap even further. So here’s what we’re looking at for DK and FD today:

DraftKings Main Slate: First game starts at 7:05 ET, five games total

FanDuel Main Slate: First game starts at 6:07 ET, ten games total

Since I try to cater to both DK and FD players with the info included in these MLB newsletters, I’ll usually only cover the mutually shared games when there are differences in main slate game selection like today. But I feel like ignoring five full games for the FanDuel players is a bit too much so I’ve decided to just do a brief mini newsletter within a newsletter focusing on those five games that land in the 6 o’clock ET window.

Quick Rundown Across the Five 'FanDuel Only' Main Slate Games

Weather:

TB @ CHC (6:30 ET, 9 O/U): This game was moved up a little over an hour to avoid some wet weather. Even with the new start time, they’re still likely going to have to play this game in some rain but it seems as if they’re committed to playing. A PPD or in-game delay cannot be completely ruled out but I’d keep it on the board for now. Some strong 20 mph winds are blowing out to left as well.

Pitchers:

Luis Severino (RHP), NYY | FD: $9,000 | @ DET

Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL | FD: $6,000 | @ OAK

Stacks:

Los Angeles Angels vs. Jake Odorizzi (RHP), HOU

Chicago Cubs vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

One-Offs & Value Bats:

OF Seiya Suzuki | FD: $3,700 | vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

SS Wander Franco | FD: $3,600 | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC

OF Cedric Mullins | FD: $3,000 | vs. Daulton Jefferies (RHP), OAK

3B Patrick Wisdon | FD: $2,900 | vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

2B/OF Tony Kemp | FD: $2,700 | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL

3B Taylor Ward | FD: $2,400 | vs. Jake Odorizzi (RHP), HOU

3B/2B Matt Duffy | FD: $2,300 | vs. Jake Odorizzi (RHP), HOU

Now, let’s get into the five remaining games. These five games also land on the back end of the FanDuel main slate and make up the entirety of the DraftKings main slate.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

MIN @ KC (8:10 ET, 9 O/U): Low-end chance for a late start if some rain leftover from earlier in the day lingers around. No danger of a PPD.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Carlos Rodon (LHP), SF | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.8k | @ NYM

We’re pretty much getting peak mid-season DFS prices on Rodon today but the dude seems to be in mid-season form already so I can’t say the lofty salaries aren’t warranted. Across his two starts (12.0 IP), he is forcing an elite 15.6% Swinging Strike Rate and an even better 35.2% CSW% (called + swinging strike %). The 1.50 ERA, 2.04 xFIP, and 0.75 WHIP are all looking very Rodon-esque as well. The Mets have some good bats throughout their order which could cause people to view this as a bad match-up for Rodon. But up to this point, the Mets have been considerably better against RHPs (.262 AVG, .351 wOBA, 132 wRC+) as opposed to LHPs (.215 AVG, .307 wOBA, 104 wRC+). Rodon was able to mow down the Cleveland Guardians in his last start, which is an offense that leads the MLB with a 136 wRC+ right now, so I wouldn’t hesitate to use him against the Mets this evening. Rodon has a tough counterpart in this game in Mets RHP Chris Bassitt and the books are certainly expecting a pitcher’s duel here given the low 6.5 O/U. So Rodon may not have the easiest pathway to earning a win, but the Giants are still slight -125 favorites and the Mets hold the lowest team total on the slate with just 2.9 implied runs.

Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.3k | vs. ARI

This is a heavily match-up-driven pitcher recommendation but Fedde has also looked quite decent through his first two starts of the year (10.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 3.27 xFIP, 26.2% kRate) and he threw 9.1 scoreless innings during spring training games as well. Fedde is forcing a lot of soft contact and his average exit velocity of batted balls is the lowest among today’s starting pitchers at 85.3 mph. He also got up to 96 pitches in his last start so we can expect him to be fully stretched out at this point. But the real draw here is the match-up with the Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-backs have averaged only 2.00 runs/gm this season (1.40 runs/gm on the road), which puts them dead last in the MLB. Against RHPs, they’re hitting .162 with a .273 wOBA, .135 ISO, 72 wRC+, and an MLB-high 29.0% kRate. In two starts and 12.0 IP against Arizona last season, Fedde acquired a 0.75 ERA, 3.08 xFIP, 0.83 WHIP, and posted a 28.3% kRate. If he continues to have similar success against Arizona today, then he’ll come away as a solid mid-range SP option on this slate.

Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.5k | @ KC

Given the amount of value there is among hitters on this slate, you should be able to comfortably afford the more reliable/pricier pitchers. But if you’re feeling risky and want to take a shot on one of the low-priced arms on this slate, Paddack may be worth a look. He was given a tough assignment in his 2022 debut when he had to face the Dodgers and their stacked lineup. Still, giving up six hits, no walks, and three earned runs across four innings of work is far from what I’d call a disastrous performance. Paddack was not the most consistent pitcher when he was with the Padres during the last three seasons, but he flashed some nice upside on a fairly routine basis. He also registered 11 Ks across 8.0 IP during the spring. The Royals represent a pretty favorable match-up for Paddack today. While KC doesn’t strike out very much (17.6% kRate vs. RHPs), they also haven’t been hitting all that well as a team. Against RHPs, their .223 AVG, .287 wOBA, .127 ISO, and 86 wRC+ are all figures which place them firmly within the bottom half of the league offensively. Paddack threw only 73 pitches in his start last Wednesday but if he can get his leash extended to somewhere in the mid-80s, there’s a reasonable chance we can get at least five solid innings out of him today.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

Pivetta has had a rough go to start 2022 and has already given up three home runs across his 7.2 IP. Those three HRs allowed are also paired with a 9.39 ERA, 5.03 xFIP, 1.83 WHIP, and an average exit velo of 98.7 mph (by far the highest among SPs on the slate). He also has some poor BvP history against this talented Toronto lineup. In 65 PA against Pivetta, the Blue Jays are hitting .305 with a .391 wOBA and.237 ISO while striking out just 16.9% of the time. Toronto’s 123 wRC+ vs. RHPs ranks 5th in the MLB this season and they lead the league with a 19.2% HR/FB Rate. The Red Sox bullpen has been pretty stout (3.62 xFIP, ranks 10th) but the Blue Jays could certainly jump on Pivetta early and they’re good enough throughout their lineup to do some damage against some of those Boston relievers as well.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guererro Jr., George Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Zack Collins (not starting) | Sneaky Bat: Matt Chapman

Minnesota Twins (RHBs) vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

In his 2022 debut, Lynch was able to rack up an uncharacteristically high seven Ks against St. Louis, which would have tied his season-high for strikeouts in a single game last season (15 starts). Those seven Ks were about the only bright spot for Lynch in that game because he also gave up a walk, nine hits (included three home runs), and six earned runs across 5.0 IP (81 pitches). Including his numbers from last season, which was his first year in the big leagues, across 73.0 IP Lynch has posted a 6.04 ERA, 5.13 xFIP, 1.66 WHIP, 18.5% kRate, and 1.48 HR/9. If you’re stacking up Twins bats, I believe the right-handed hitters will need to take priority (Update: Twins have eight RHBs in the lineup today). Lynch is strong in those lefty-on-lefty match-ups but he has been dreadful versus RHBs: .318 AVG, .392 wOBA, 1.80 WHIP, 1.71 HR/9, 39.3% HardContact%. Behind Lynch will be a Royals bullpen that has been performing better across the last few games after starting the season looking horrible. However, it’s still a middle-of-the-pack bullpen that can be taken advantage of.

Favorite MIN Bats: Carlos Correa, Jorge Polanco, Gio Urshela | Sneaky Bat: Kyle Garlick

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

So I don’t believe the Mariners are going to fly too far under the radar (on the DK main slate) but any significant ownership may fall on only one or two Seattle bats. Dane Dunning has shown some noticeable struggles when pitching on the road in his career. In 70.1 IP on the road, he has a 5.89 ERA, 4.70 xFIP, .283 AVG, .366 wOBA, 1.41 HR/9, and a 1.59 WHIP. His strikeouts also take a nosedive from a 27.2% kRate at home to an 18.3% kRate on the road. The Mariners have a 119 wRC+ against RHPs this season, putting them inside the top 10 offenses versus righties. They’re posting quality offensive numbers despite their unlucky .260 BABIP against RHPs (ranks 20th). So, with that in mind, the Mariners are due for some positive regression to go on top of their already strong offensive output. Behind Dunning will be a Rangers bullpen that has been dreadful this season. Rangers relievers have accounted for an MLB-worst 5.68 ERA and have given up 2.13 HR/9 (also the highest in the MLB).

Favorite SEA Bats: Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, Ty France | Sneaky Bat: JP Crawford

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B Vlad Guererro Jr. | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

C Salvador Perez | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

SS Carlos Correa | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

1B Josh Bell | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

3B/SS Eugenio Suarez | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

OF Alex Verdugo | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

1B Seth Beer | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

1B/3B/OF Hunter Dozier | DK: $3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), MIN

C Gary Sanchez | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

C Zack Collins | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

3B/SS Gio Urshela | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

OF Kyle Garlick | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Jesse Winker | DK: $4.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

The hits have been few and far between for Winker this season as he has gone just 5-for-35 (.143 AVG), all five hits being singles. It’s not as if he’s been completely shut down. While the hits haven’t been there, his 25.5% Walk Rate is the third-highest in the MLB (min. 30 PA) and he has just a 10.6% kRate. His hitting numbers are also suffering from a painfully unlucky .167 BABIP which is a far cry from his career .309 BABIP. His contact numbers are all fairly similar to what they were last season so, all this to say, expect Winker to start putting up some strong fantasy numbers soon. I’m hoping that happens today against RHP Dane Dunning who has had his share of struggles when pitching on the road. Dunning has a 1.41 HR/9 Rate in his career when pitching on the road and he’s already given up a pair of HRs in 8.2 IP this season. Winker absolutely smashed RHPs last season with a .346 AVG, .449 wOBA, .296 ISO, 178 wRC+, and a 22.3% HR/FB Rate. Winker’s home run chances may only improve once the Rangers relievers come into play considering they’ve allowed an MLB-high 12 HRs this season resulting in a 2.13 HR/9 Rate. I always hate saying a guy “is due” but it absolutely feels like that for Winker. Let’s see him get on track by going yard tonight!

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Erick Fedde OVER 5.5 Strikeouts | +130 | 2.0 Units

Fedde recorded five Ks in his 2022 debut against a Mets team that has only an 18.9% kRate versus RHPs this season (fifth-lowest). He then recorded 6 Ks in his start against Pittsburgh last Friday while hitting a pitch count of 96 throws. The 6 Ks against the Pirates was not much of a surprise as they’ve posted a 26.4% kRate vs. RHPs this season (third- highest). Fedde’s 30.6% CSW% (called + swinging strike %) through his two starts is teetering on elite territory and now he’ll face a Diamondbacks team whose 29.0% kRate represents the highest kRate vs. RHPs in the MLB. Assuming Fedde’s pitch count continues to go into the mid-90s, he’ll have ample opportunity to record at least six strikeouts against the whiff-happy D-backs. I’m liking the plus-money odds on this K prop.

Alex Verdugo OVER 1.5 Total Bases | +110 | 2.0 Units

Bonus Bet: Alex Verdugo to Hit a Home Run | +980 | 0.5 Units

Verdugo is swinging a hot bat and is currently riding a six-game hit streak. He has produced an extra-base hit in four of those games (two 2B, two HR). His 94.3 mph average exit velocity vs. RHPs puts him in the 95th percentile this season as well. Verdugo should get a couple of cracks at Blue Jays RHP Jose Berrios today. Berrios will have better days ahead of him but thus far he has taken some serious abuse in 2022. He struggled heavily in spring training where he pitched 8.0 innings and allowed 15 hits, three walks, and posted a 2.25 WHIP and 11.25 ERA. In 5.1 IP during this regular season, Berrios has allowed nine hits (three HRs) and issued five walks which have led to an 11.81 ERA (7.34 xFIP). In five ABs against Berrios, Verdugo has gone 4-of-5 with a HR. Those numbers are all clearly from small sample sizes but Berrios is a guy who has always issues on the road, especially against lefty hitters like Verdugo. One final Berrios tidbit: he has three career starts (16.0 IP) at Fenway Park which has resulted in a 7.31 ERA, .342 AVG, and 2.06 WHIP. Let’s look for Verdugo to get at least a couple of bases this evening and I’ll also be throwing a little scratch on him to go yard as well. With everything I’ve just mentioned, there’s no way his home run prop odds should be nearly +1000 (Verdugo to hit a HR is +980 on FanDuel)!

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!