By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Preview & Strategy Guide ⚾

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The second day of the 2021 MLB season will feature a modest, but appealing six game main slate. Despite there only being a dozen teams in action this evening, there will be plenty of ways to attack this one. These games feature a fairly wide array of pitchers who are all currently No. 2 guys in their respective rotations, Coors Field is in play once again with the dangerous Dodgers lineup still in town, and seven total offenses have an implied total of 4.5 runs or above. It appears that weather will be cooperative as well, so no headache to deal with there! Let’s kick off the weekend and dive into this one!

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

LAD @ COL: As mentioned in the intro, no real weather concerns today but it’s another nice day for hitters in Coors Field. This match-up saw 13 total runs scored yesterday on 26 combined hits… and that was without any home runs knocked out of the park (well… Bellinger technically did hit a homer, but Justin Turner’s baserunning gaffe wiped that out). It’s Coors Field… the home runs will come.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Blake Snell (LHP) | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.5k | vs. ARI

I mentioned yesterday how paying up for pitchers early in the season isn’t an idea I’m overly attached to, due to pitch count restrictions on most guys for their first 2-4 starts. But if I’m paying up for an arm today, I’m most definitely leaning towards Snell considering Trevor Bauer is in an obvious tough spot at Coors. I’d be a bit more hesitant to roll with Snell in his first start of the season if he was still in Tampa Bay, but he could be in for a career year with the Padres. The Rays are an organization that is well-known to put a short leash on their starting pitchers and many will probably recall when Snell was infamously pulled after just 73 pitches in Game 6 of the 2020 World Series in the midst of tossing a gem (2 H, 0 BB, 1 ER, 9 K). Across his 11 starts in 2020, Snell averaged just 79.3 pitches which was a tick down from the full 2019 season where he averaged 83.2 pitches/gm -- still a low figure for a high-end pitcher like Snell (though, injuries did play a factor in some of his pitch restrictions). San Diego allowed Yu Darvish to toss 93 pitches yesterday in the season opener and it’s possible he would’ve gone a bit deeper into the game had he not began to struggle in the 5th inning.

Snell has all the numbers you could ask for out of an ace-level pitcher. He’s had a kRate above 31% in each of the last three seasons, as well as a 15+% SwStr%, sub-1.30 WHIP, and an xFIP of 3.31 or below in each of those years. The D-Backs ranked 26th with just a 78 wRC+ versus LHPs in 2020 alongside a .291 wOBA (also ranked 26th). If Snell can touch 90-95 pitches, he is a great bet to end the day as the slate’s top pitcher.

Pablo Lopez (RHP) | DK: $7k, FD: $7.8k | vs. TB

Lopez had a rock solid year three of his MLB career across the shortened 2020 season. In 11 starts (57.1 IP) he produced a 52.2% Ground Ball Rate, which ranked 14th among SPs (min. 50.0 IP), and he allowed just four HRs on the season (0.63 HR/9, ranked 9th in MLB). He also saw an uptick in strikeouts, posting an above average 24.6% kRate. While we can’t put too much trust in spring training, Lopez did put up a 2.63 ERA and 1.02 WHIP across 13.2 IP leading up to this season. The Opening Day match-up between these two teams saw just one run scored on eight total hits, and while we can’t expect that low offensive output to happen again, Vegas does give this game the lowest total of the slate with just a 7.5 run over/under. Lopez is looking like an appealing SP2 target on DK and a contrarian spend down option on FD. He’d certainly help ya fit in some Coors bats if you so desired.

Cristian Javier (RHP) | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7k | @ OAK

Towards the bottom of the barrel, Javier will be another one of my preferred value options on the board, particularly in GPPs. The A’s have some dangerous bats in their lineup but there is one major reason I’m liking Javier in this spot -- he’s a fly ball pitcher pitching in a pitcher’s park (say that five times fast) and Oakland Coliseum has a MASSIVE amount of foul territory which is more than 50% larger than any other ballpark. Javier led all pitchers (min. 50.0 IP) in 2020 with a 52.2% FB% while holding opponents to a .186 AVG, 0.99 WHIP, and posting a respectable 25.2% kRate. In several different levels in the minor leagues, Javier posted a kRate WELL above 30%, so there is reason to believe his strikeouts increase even more as he enters his second year in the MLB. Do be advised, this is by no means a safe play. Javier’s 4.86 xFIP from 2020 is the worst mark on the slate. Javier also didn’t get much work in during spring ball so he may not be a safe bet to pitch deep into this game (but hey, really who is this early in the season?).

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: The Dodgers and Rockies have the two highest implied totals of the day so, obviously, expect these teams to carry lofty ownership (particularly LAD). Nothing wrong with stacking either team in GPPs, just differentiate elsewhere if you’re looking to be different.

San Diego Padres vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

Expect some Padres bats to be fairly popular as well on this smaller slate, but I believe they’ll carry a bit less ownership than many Coors bats. Kelly has actually stifled the Padres the last four times he has pitched against them (26.2 IP), holding them to just one earned run and a .152 AVG/.186 wOBA in that four game stretch. But this is simply a Padres lineup that won’t be held in check by very many pitchers in 2021. Kelly did give up a slate worst 43.3% Hard Contact Rate in 2020 and the Padres have a platoon of batters who posted a 40+% Hard% last season (Tatis Jr., Myers, Pham, Cronenworth, Hosmer, Machado). Kelly is no slouch by any means, but if you want some legitimate HR potential, you can probably go back to this Slam Diego roster.

Chicago White Sox vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), LAA

If you played MLB DFS last season, you know that the White Sox absolutely obliterated lefty pitching. Their team 142 wRC+ and .238 ISO vs. LHPs ranked 1st in the MLB. The 27 HRs hit and 88 RBIs knocked in against southpaws ranked 4th in each category as well, despite the fact that they saw just 442 at-bats against LHPs -- only five other teams in the MLB had fewer ABs against lefties in 2020. Opposing managers had plenty of reasons to NOT roll out left-handed pitchers against this team. The White Sox starting order has seen a couple of changes, but for the most part, their 2020 core of guys like reigning AL MVP Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Yasmani Grandal, and Yoan Moncada is still intact. Andrew Heaney can look really solid at times, but he can be quite volatile as well. If he doesn't bring his best stuff to the park tonight, he’s going to get tagged up by this White Sox lineup.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Seattle Mariners vs. Johnny Cueto (RHP), SF

The Mariners get the nod for my contrarian stack to consider this evening. The match-up is obviously a good one, as Cueto is well past his prime and is coming off of a season where he had a slate worst 1.37 WHIP along with a poor 5.40 ERA, 4.78 xFIP, and 4.90 SIERA while striking out just 20.2% of batters. The Mariners are a contrarian stack simply because they’re projected as a bottom 5 to 10 offense this season and they’re probably going to need a good pitching match-up if they’re going to be a viable stack in many games in 2021. They draw one of those positive pitching match-ups tonight against Cueto and they’ll also face a below-average Giants bullpen which blew a 6-1 lead over the final three innings of their Opening Day game against the Mariners last night.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

OF Cody Bellinger | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Your Coors Field exposure doesn’t always need to come by way of rolling out full stacks, which can ultimately force you to roster cheaper/riskier pitchers. Sometimes you can just target one or two bats and hope they’re the guys who end up popping off. After Bellinger got inadvertently robbed of his Opening Day homer by his own teammate yesterday, you can bet he’ll be taking some big chops at the ball tonight. Bellinger has flourished at Coors Field throughout his career: 30 Games, .346 AVG, .451 wOBA, 183 wRC+, 6 HR, 11 2B, 2 3B behind a 48.6% Hard Contact Rate. If you look at his splits from 2020, Senzatela actually pitched extremely well at home in Coors Field… something few Rockies pitchers can accomplish. But that won’t keep me away from rostering a guy like Bellinger, especially if he’s batting clean-up in this absurdly dangerous Dodgers order once again.

OF Austin Slater | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), SEA

Slater should likely find himself hitting lead-off again tonight in a righty-on-lefty match-up against Kikuchi. In a limited sample size from last season (38 at-bats), Slater was excellent against LHPs, hitting .316 with a massive .470 wOBA, .342 ISO, and 200 wRC+. He also stole three bags against lefties last season and his HR last night came at the expense of another southpaw pitcher. Since RBI opportunities for lead-off hitters come from banking on less talented hitters at the back of the order getting on base, if you’re rostering them in DFS, you want them to possess power/extra base + steal upside. Slater has both. Kikuchi looked good in spring ball and has some legitimate potential, but his career splits versus RHBs are still pretty ugly so I don’t mind getting some one-off exposure through a guy like Slater.

2B/OF Ketel Marte | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Blake Snell (RHP), SD

Mentioned Ketel Marte in this section yesterday because, despite the tough match-up against Yu Darvish, he was simply too cheap on both sites. He draws another tough match-up with Blake Snell who is backed up by what should be a very strong Padres bullpen in 2021. But Marte raked in the spring and he opened up 2021 going 4-for-5 with a home run, a double, and two runs. I don’t want to chase points against a dominant pitching staff, but Ketel Marte can easily pay off these salaries once again.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Jose Abreu | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), LAA

I've already talked about how dangerous the White Sox bats were against LHPs last year and Abreu was a significant reason why. He had 13 HRs in just 52 at-bats against LHPs in 2020 and in only six career ABs against Andrew Heaney, Abreu has already knocked a couple of home runs off of him. I’ll look for him to get another one out of the park tonight.

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. Leading up to first pitch, we post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Calls for each slate. If you retweet/like that tweet and one of those guys goes yard, you win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy. Bogman had the call with Wil Myers yesterday so some free merch has already flown off the shelf!

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