Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 Today's DFS On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

Well, yesterday’s main slate certainly reminded us of the volatility of MLB. David Hess and Aaron Brooks led the way in fantasy scoring for pitchers, the Cubs and Red Sox both got shut out, the Astros/Rangers game tallied a three run total, and overall it was a bad day for the chalk! It was a slate to be different on for sure and I noticed some GPP winning scores on DraftKings topped out in the 150 range. Let’s see what today has in store of us, shall we?

We have a 10-gamer to dissect this evening that is led by aces Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, and other elite arms. The headline that will draw plenty of attention is Bryce Harper returning to Washington. I can’t wait to see how the crowd reacts with him at the plate facing off against Mad Max. With seven out of 10 games carrying totals under eight runs, it’s likely we’ll see some pretty condensed ownership on perhaps three or four offenses that are in more ideal spots, so this could be another slate to get a little ‘weird’ with. But of course with so many elite options on the mound today, your pitching strategy will dictate what sort of bats/stacks you can piece together. We’ll just have to predict how ownership will shake out as the day goes along to determine the best strategies!

Here are the match-ups and Vegas lines for today’s slate:

PHI @ WAS appears to be our only weather concern. The most extreme forecast I’ve seen shows about a 50% chance of light to moderate rain falling between 7:00-10:00 pm ET, exactly when the game is to be played. But other forecasts show lower chances of precipitation with rain out of the area around 8:00 ET. Regardless, it seems like a delay is possible or the rain may be light enough that they can just play through it. A washout would be a surprise since a complete downpour or any risk of lightning is not expected. You would think they’d really want to get this game in considering the Bryce Harper narrative as well. For now, I’m moving forward as if this game will play.

Keep an eye on the LineStar Daily Dashboard page for up-to-date weather forecasts for each game!

Pitchers to Consider

Chris Sale (DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.8k) | LHP | BOS @ OAK

When it comes to the pitchers up at the top, there’s essentially no right or wrong approach to things today. Scherzer, Verlander, and Sale are three guys you can reasonably play no matter the match-up. I’m highlighting Chris Sale, however, because I get the sense that he’ll carry the lowest ownership for a couple of reasons. One reason being that the majority will lean towards paying all the way up for either Scherzer or Verlander OR they’ll choose to drop down to one of the cheaper aces in order to get bigger bats in. There’s also the thought that plenty of newer MLB DFS players are still around and they may not be all that familiar with Chris Sale. That opening day stinker sitting in his game log is enough to scare at least some people away. In case you may not remember how good Sale is, last season he bolstered a 38.4% kRate, 2.27 SIERA, allowed just a 26.5% Hard Contact Rate, and a 5.5% Walk Rate. The Athletics hit LHPs pretty well last season: .322 wOBA & .178 ISO but Sale should be able to limit their power bats today. Boston is a -175 favorite and Oakland has just a 3.3 implied run total. You probably want to go the MME route today and gain exposure to all these aces, but if I had to pick one guy at the top to go overweight on in GPPs in hopes of leveraging the field, it’d be Sale.

Marcus Stroman (DK: $8.3k, FD: $7.4k) | RHP | TOR vs. BAL

The sole fact that the Blue Jays are -200 favorites today, which is on par with Scherzer (-210) and Verlander (-200), is enough to make the assumption that a mid-priced Stroman will be one of the more popular DFS plays taking the mound for this slate. Paired with the facts that he was the primary component in an opening day shutout (7 IP, 7 K, 2 H, 4 BB on 94 pitches) versus Detroit and he faces a bottom five Orioles lineup today, and you have a strong case to consider Stroman in any format. He left a lot to be desired in 102.1 innings of action last year when he posted a 17.2% kRate, .326 BABIP, 3.84 xFIP on his way to just a 4-9 record. He was a tough guy to predict but he does tend to fare better at home (26.1% more FP at home) and I believe we can use him in the right match-ups this season -- e.g. the one he has against Baltimore today.

Jason Vargas (DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.5k) | LHP | NYM @ MIA

If you’re looking to go big on bats today then Vargas stands out as a viable salary saving option against a Marlins team with their own set of struggles against left-handed pitching. In 2018, the Marlins were dead last in wOBA (.283) and ISO (.115) and had the 4th worst BABIP (.281) against lefty hurlers. Vargas is a veteran guy who is capable of racking up some outs and grinding thru six innings of work with a handful of strikeouts. He also finished his 2018 season out strong, scoring between 21.8 and 31.7 (DraftKings) points in five of his final six games while earning a 4-1 record. Anything close to that production would obviously be tremendous value today. Marlins Park is the 3rd most pitcher-friendly park and the Mets are a -128 favorite. The Marlins have an implied run total of 3.7 -- which is about on par with their lackluster season average through five games of 3.4 runs P/G.

Team Stacks to Target

Houston Astros vs. Shelby Miller (RHP - Texas Rangers)

If there’s any match-up where the typically potent Houston offense can break out of their cold streak that they have going to open the season, it should be against Shelby Miller. Miller has pitched only 38 innings in the MLB since 2017, so I’ll be using his last season where he had a more significant amount of work -- his 2016 season with the Diamondbacks (101.0 IP). That season, Miller had a kRate of just 15.2%, .340 BABIP, 9.1% Walk Rate, 5.13 SIERA, and a 5.06 xFIP. Now he’s pitching in the most hitter-friendly park in baseball against an Astros lineup aching to show off their firepower. You’ll be sacrificing a lot at pitcher to get any sort of full Astro stack going, so keep that in mind. In that 2016 season, Miller struggled most with LHBs (.400 wOBA, .356 BABIP, 5.54 xFIP, 39.1% Hard Contact) but Houston’s primary hitters, aside from Brantley, are RHBs so just stack away regardless: George Springer, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve would be the main targets. Tyler White and Josh Reddick are some LHBs that may find a nice spot in the order as well and are worth a look. Houston’s 5.0 implied runs are the highest mark on the slate.

Seattle Mariners vs. Trevor Cahill (RHP - Los Angeles Angels)

No one is really stopping this Mariners offense that is averaging 7.7 runs per game to start the season and I don’t believe Trevor Cahill will either. Cahill didn’t have the worst numbers in 2018 (.277 BABIP, 3.80 xFIP, 22.2% kRate, 4.06 SIERA) but he did give up a lot of hard contact (39.3%) and gave up two long balls on Opening Day against Oakland. The Mariners have some guys throughout their order with some power versus righties and they can make for a pretty affordable stack. Mitch Haniger, Jay Bruce, and Domingo Santana would probably be my top three to stack while Mallex Smith, Omar Narvaez, and Ryon Healy make for strong secondary options.

New York Mets vs. Jose Urena (RHP - Miami Marlins)

The Mets may have a sneaky good offense this season. Up to this point, they have averaged 6.25 runs per game, which ranks 6th in the early going of 2019. The park factor doesn't do the hitters any favors but this will likely be a low owned stack and they have an exploitable match-up versus Urena. In 2018, Urena posted a 4.32 xFIP, 18.3% kRate, and 4.39 SIERA. I’d look to target LHBs against him a bit more when putting a stack together, as he allows more hard contact to lefties (41.3% Hard Contact Rate, 1.37 HR/9, .179 ISO) as opposed to righties (34.1% Hard Contact Rate, 0.55 HR/9, .150 ISO). Robinson Cano, Michael Conforto, and Brandon Nimmo are my favorite Mets LHBs to stack, while Pete Alonso and Wilson Ramos would be my go-to RHBs.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight a player at different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Trea Turner (DK: $4.9k, FD: $4.8k) | SS | WAS vs. PHI

Again, we’re assuming this game plays, and while I’m not expecting another double dinger day for Trea, you just have to love the fantasy scoring upside he can bring on any given day. He’s always a threat to steal a bag or two. While it’s better to target him when he’s facing LHPs, his splits versus RHPs were still strong last year: .326 wOBA, .335 OBP, and 29 of his 43 stolen bases were against righties. He also had much better splits when playing at home (.346 wOBA, .366 OBP) as opposed to on the road (.316 wOBA, .323 OBP).

Rowdy Tellez (DK: $4k, FD: $2.7k) | 1B | TOR vs. BAL

I know it’s a small sample size (50 ABs) but Tellez was dominant against RHPs last season. He had a .503 wOBA, .457 BABIP, .400 ISO, with a 41.0% Hard Contact Rate in those at-bats. Andrew Cashner struggles against both sides of the plate but against righties last year he allowed a .370 wOBA, .321 BABIP, .193 ISO, and 5.38 xFIP. I’m assuming Tellez will nab the 5th spot in the order today, which would be good enough for me to give him plenty of consideration in this match-up. He's a legit home run threat.

Marcus Semien (DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.3k) | SS | OAK vs. BOS

Say Chris Sale’s opener wasn’t a fluke… maybe he’s just due for some regression at this stage of his career. Well, if such a theory has any legs to it, why not take a shot on Semien, who has solid history against Sale already? Semien has two home runs and a .429 OBP against Sale in 12 career ABs. Not a lot to go off of but Sale is pitching on the road in a hitter’s park and this Boston team as a whole isn’t really enjoying the West Coast road trip to start their season, as they’re off to a 1-4 start. Worth a shot in a GPP lineup or two!

LineStar MLB Freeroll

We will be doing an MLB freeroll on DraftKings every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday!

Congratulations to Monday's freeroll winner: G4M3_OV3R - 139.2 Points

DM us on Twitter with your winning lineup to claim your prize.

Use the image below as your DraftKings avatar to win 2x the prize!

Good luck out there today!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!