By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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🎙️ 4-19 LineStar MLB DFS On Deck Podcast 🎙️

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

Get ready to shimmy into your big-boy and big-girl pants because we’ve got a hefty MLB slate heading our way this evening! I must quickly note that there is a slight game selection discrepancy between the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates. FanDuel has elected to nix the second game of the D-backs/Nationals doubleheader off of their main slate so, for the sake of consistency, this newsletter will focus only on the 10 mutually shared games. There is quite a bit to get into on this huge baseball Tuesday so let’s not waste any time and jump right in!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Overall, it looks like there will be no postponement concerns today! On a slate this size, that is a welcomed surprise, especially following yesterday’s gloomy weather which knocked a couple of games off the docket.

TOR @ BOS (7:10 ET, 9 O/U): Brisk temps in the mid-40s with winds blowing OUT to center at 10-15 mph. The chilly temperatures and winds blowing out sort of cancel each other out when it comes to a potential hitter/pitcher advantage but I would say the hitters receive a small bump here.

TB @ CHC (7:40 ET, 8 O/U): Cold with temps in the low-40s and light winds blowing IN from right field. Slight bump to hitters.

PHI @ COL (8:40 ET, 11.5 O/U): It was a low-scoring Coors Field match-up yesterday but, hey, it happens. Every game isn’t going to be an offensive slugfest just because the game is being played in Coors. But this game carries what is easily the highest total on the slate once again and there are some decent hitting conditions. Temps in the mid-70s at first pitch with 10 mph winds blowing OUT.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.8k | vs. PIT

After hurling 97 pitches in his second start of the season, which came last Wednesday, I believe it’s safe to assume Burnes is fully stretched out. With many of the slate’s stud pitchers facing difficult match-ups, Burnes draws one of the more favorable opponents of the day in the Pittsburgh Pirates. Offensively, the Pirates have been decent -- their 4.10 runs/gm ranks them 17th in the MLB. In 249 plate appearances against RHPs this season, they are hitting .261 with a .318 wOBA, .117 ISO, 102 wRC+, and they have a 24.9% kRate. So, again, those are some fairly middle-of-the-pack batting stats with a higher-than-average strikeout rate. Through two starts, Burnes’ 26.1% kRate is down considerably from his 35.6% kRate in 2021. But that’s only a 12.0 IP sample size and he is almost certainly going to surpass that 30+% kRate threshold soon. He’s still posting an excellent 16.1% Swinging Strike Rate (he had a 16.6% SwStr% in 2021) -- generally, you can double a pitcher’s SwStr% and that’s about where their overall kRate should be. This will be Burnes’ 2022 home debut and the Brewers come in as the heaviest favorites on the slate (-250) while the Pirates possess a slate-low 3.1 implied runs. With all of that said, even with the five-figure DFS salaries, it’s a sensible and cash-game-safe approach to pay up for a fully stretched-out Corbin Burnes going up against a strikeout-prone Pirates team today.

Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD | DK: $8.6k, FD: $11k | vs. CIN

When it comes to Musgrove today, it’s another scenario where DraftKings seems to have significantly underpriced a particular pitcher while FanDuel has overpriced them. Given how good Musgrove has looked across his first two starts this year combined with the fact that he’s drawing a home start against the bumbling Reds offense, in my opinion, he should be about $1,000 more expensive on DK. However, on FanDuel, I don’t think he should be the most expensive pitcher on the slate but… at the same time, I get why he’s up there. So expect Musgrove to carry heavy ownership in DraftKings today while he should be viewed as more of a GPP option on FanDuel since saving the extra $200 by dropping down to the aforementioned Corbin Burnes just makes a bit too much sense (especially in cash games).

As mentioned, Musgrove has performed very well through his two starts and 12.2 IP in 2022. He’s earned a stellar 1.86 xFIP alongside a 31.1% kRate, .234 opp wOBA, and he has yet to issue a walk. The Reds continue to post some rather inept results at the plate and in 221 plate appearances against RHPs, they’re batting a mere .176 with a .246 wOBA, .106 ISO, 48 wRC+, and a lofty 28.1% kRate (3rd highest). Cincinnati’s wOBA and wRC+ figures against righty pitchers both rank dead last in the MLB. Certainly, they’re not *this* bad and I do believe they’ll positively regress into more of a middle-of-the-pack offense. They’ve been without Jonathan India, the 2021 Rookie of the Year, for a few games due to a hamstring injury, and other guys like Joey Votto, Kyle Farmer, Tommy Pham, and Tyler Stephenson have simply been under-performing. But until they begin to right the ship and show concrete offensive improvement, we must consider them to be one of the better match-ups that a starting pitcher could draw.

Cole Irvin (LHP), OAK | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.1k | vs. BAL

When it comes to the hapless Orioles offense, they pretty much rank near or at the very bottom across the board in all key hitting metrics. And unlike some other struggling offenses who should be expected to improve moving forward, as I mentioned with the Reds, the Orioles seem destined to be basement dwellers all season pending some monumental leaps forward. So, once again, we must at least consider the opposing starting pitcher who gets to take the hill against Baltimore.

Today, Cole Irvin will draw those honors and he happens to bring with him some dirt cheap DFS salaries. Last year was Irvin’s first season as a full-time MLB starter and he held his own in the A’s rotation wire-to-wire, starting 32 games and pitching 178.1 innings. You can scroll through his fantasy point totals from last season on the LineStar app or website and see that his game-to-game results were a bit of a rollercoaster and he ultimately had about as many solid-to-great performances as he did lackluster-to-awful performances. Though he may not be a stud nor someone who is going to routinely strike out a ton of hitters, he can likely still return decent value today across five or six innings of work. Irvin’s first two starts of 2022 came on the road against the Phillies and Rays; those are two offenses that currently rank inside the top 10 against LHPs this year. Baltimore, however, does not come anywhere close to posting any sort of offensive numbers in the top 10. They’re averaging 2.20 runs/gm (ranks last) and in 148 plate appearances against LHPs, they’re hitting .215 with a .277 wOBA, .077 ISO, 78 wRC+, and they’ve accounted for a league-high 33.1% kRate. Irvin has a career 16.3% kRate and 6.35 K/9 so he’s usually not going to punch out more than three or four batters per game. But, assuming he goes for about 85 pitches or so, I believe we might be able to get five or six Ks out of him today given Baltimore’s tendency to strikeout so much this season. Even with some guys on the COVID list, the A’s are solid -145 favorites today and the Orioles have just a 3.6 implied run total. This will also be Irvin’s first 2022 home start at the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum where he averages 22.2% more fantasy points per game.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Obligatory Coors Stacks:

After failing to produce yesterday at extremely high ownership and with so many games on this slate today, perhaps Coors Field bats will go under-owned today?

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), PHI

Non-Coors Stacks

Houston Astros vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

Ya know, I am kicking myself a bit today after somewhat overlooking the Astros on yesterday’s slate. They were up against a mediocre starting pitcher and it was also their 2022 home opener at Minute Maid Park -- in 2021, Houston led the MLB with a 119 wRC+ at home while scoring 5.24 runs/gm. Hopefully highlighting them in the stack section today doesn’t end up looking like I was only chasing results from yesterday because that is not the intention (and let’s be honest, it was mainly the Yordan Alvarez double-dinger, four-RBI performance that shined for the Astros on Monday night).

Patrick Sandoval will draw his second start of the season in an undesirable match-up today. Sandoval has some very strong strikeout upside and he’ll certainly be a pitcher I look to roster instead of stack against in many spots this season… but not today. As mentioned, the Astros were one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball at home last year and Minute Maid Park is a place where Sandoval has not had a good time in his career. Sandoval has three starts at MMP and they have all been short-lived outings that totaled 7.2 innings pitched. In those games, Sandoval accounted for a 14.09 ERA, 7.45 xFIP, 2.22 WHIP and he allowed a .353 AVG, .506 wOBA, and four home runs. Since Sandoval does tend to rely on strikeouts to get through games. However, Houston is only striking out 16.2% of the time against LHPs this season which could result in some long at-bats and a rapidly climbing pitch count for Sandoval. Once he is off the mound, the Angels bullpen will take over. Their 4.88 ERA is the fifth-highest among MLB bullpens (4.05 xFIP, 11th highest) and they’ve given up 10 HRs, resulting in a 1.88 HR/9 Rate. It’s looking like Jose Altuve (hamstring) may not play today but there is still plenty of DFS appeal for several other Astros bats.

Update: Altuve is out of today's lineup.

Favorite HOU Bats: Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker | Sneaky Bat: Jeremy Pena (wellp... probably not as 'sneaky' now that he's batting lead-off)

Boston Red Sox vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

Even though it seems the Red Sox have yet to fully hit their stride offensively, they’re still posting 4.50 runs/gm (ranks 11th) and something tells me they are poised to break a slate soon. Will today be the day? Well, I suppose that depends on which version of Yusei Kikuchi steps on the mound at Fenway Park. Throughout his career, Kikuchi just tends to pitch very well in games or he gets shelled, not much in-between. Kikuchi is also a pitcher who has shown extreme traditional splits so right-handed hitters will possess the best odds for success against him today. Kikuchi faced 520 RHBs last season and allowed a .271 AVG, .357 wOBA, .208 ISO, 1.51 WHIP, 1.69 HR/9, and a 22.2% HR/FB Rate. Kikuchi’s only career start at Fenway Park came last season where he pitched 4.2 innings and allowed six hits (two HRs), three walks, and five earned runs with only a single strikeout. He will be supported by a Toronto bullpen that has pitched pretty well this season so the Red Sox may need to get their damage done early if this stack is going to really pay off, but they do have a strong chance of doing just that. While it will be cold in Boston this evening, there will also be some 10-15 mph winds blowing out to center field which will help carry some fly balls just a bit further.

Favorite BOS Bats: Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez, Trevor Story | Sneaky Bat: Bobby Dalbec

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland Athletics vs. Chris Ellis (RHP), BAL

Ellis is not currently confirmed as the starter for Baltimore today but he is expected to be called up from Triple-A to make a spot start in place of the injured John Means. Assuming Ellis does take the hill, he’s likely someone we’ll want to stack against. He has 30.1 IP in the MLB, mostly all of which came last season. In that time, he’s managed to post an impressive 2.08 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. However, that low ERA and WHIP are a bit deceiving. His underlying stats, like his poor 5.50 xFIP and very fortunate .229 BABIP against him indicate that he has gotten quite lucky across his limited MLB appearances. In 13 starts and 57.0 IP in Triple-A last season, Ellis posted an ugly 6.32 ERA, 4.82 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, and allowed 2.21 HR/9. He also had a rough spring where he appeared in three games, pitched 6.2 innings, allowed eight hits (two HRs), two walks, seven earned runs, and came away with a 1.50 WHIP and 9.45 ERA. The A’s are dealing with many absences, mostly COVID-related, and the Baltimore bullpen has also been surprisingly stout (2.49 ERA, 3.08 xFIP, .209 AVG, 1.11 WHIP). West Coast offenses (not named the “Dodgers”) often go overlooked due to various biases and this is a large slate with a ton of options (including a Coors Field game). When you combine all of those factors, that should lead to Oakland being a low-owned stack this evening… but there is nice potential to be had, and nearly every hitter checks in with a low DFS price tag.

Favorite OAK Bats: Tony Kemp, Seth Brown, Elvis Andrus | Sneaky Bad: Sheldon Neuse

DK Only Bonus Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

I have to quickly mention the Braves here but specifically if you play on DraftKings. Yes, it’s a tough match-up against Walker Buehler, one of the best pitchers on the slate. But DraftKings priced all the Braves bats ABSURDLY cheap today for whatever reason. Just run down the line… Ozzie Albies for $3,600?! Matt Olson for $3,400?! Austin Riley for $2,900?! Dansby Swanson at… okay, he’s probably overpriced at $2,300 so ignore him. But the core Braves bats deserve some recognition based on potential value alone. Buehler also hasn’t been extremely sharp across his two 2022 starts (3.38 ERA, 4.23 xFIP, 1.31 WHIP) and he struggled a bit in the spring as well.

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Nick Castellanos | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

SS Xander Bogaerts | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

OF Christian Yelich | DK: $4.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT

3B Manny Machado | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Reiver Sanmartin (LHP), CIN

2B/SS Jorge Polanco | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Carlos Hernandez (RHP), KC

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

*1B Matt Olson | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

SS Jeremy Pena | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

2B/3B Sheldon Neuse | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Chris Ellis (RHP), BAL

OF Randal Grichuk | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), PHI

OF Manuel Margot | DK: $3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

*3B Austin Riley | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

1B Rowdy Tellez | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. JT Brukbaker (RHP), PIT

3B/SS Gio Urshela | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Carlos Hernandez (RHP), KC

*DraftKings-Specific Value

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

SS Xander Bogaerts | DK: $5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

I mentioned above in the stack section how Red Sox right-handed bats may find themselves in a nice spot against Yusei Kikuchi today. To reiterate his poor splits against RHBs from last year, I will simply copy and paste what I have written above: Kikuchi faced 520 RHBs last season and allowed a .271 AVG, .357 wOBA, .208 ISO, 1.51 WHIP, 1.69 HR/9, and a 22.2% HR/FB Rate. In Bogaerts’ case, he has six plate appearances against Kikuchi where he has knocked out two home runs. Bogaerts has a team-high 16.0% Barrel% this season to go along with a 44.0% HardHit%. He may not be the strongest power bat in this lineup but he is a career .305 hitter against LHPs and he has clearly seen Kikuchi’s pitches very well in the limited plate appearances he’s had against him. Those 10-15 mph winds blowing out to center field at Fenway this evening won’t hurt Bogaerts’ home run chances either.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Robbie Ray under 6.5 Strikeouts | +120 | 2.0 units

Through two starts and 13.1 IP, Robbie Ray has forced only a 10.9% Swinging Strike Rate along with a 23.4% CSW% (Called + Swinging Strike %) and an overall 16.1% kRate. Those figures are down drastically from his 2021 Cy Young-caliber numbers -- 15.5% SwStr%, 29.6% CSW%, 32.1% kRate. Of course, it is a super small sample size and Ray did record 17 Ks across 13.2 IP in Spring Training. But up to this point in the actual regular season, his average fastball velocity is sitting at 92.6 mph which is down a couple of ticks from last season (94.6 mph). His fastball is a pitch he throws nearly 60% of the time so if that lower velocity continues to be a trend, then his K numbers will certainly continue to struggle… at least based on his standards set from previous seasons. The Rangers enter with only a 16.7% kRate vs. LHPs this season (102 PA), so give me the under 6.5 on Ray’s K total tonight.

Brewers (-250), Astros (-158), Athletics (-138), Padres (-215) Moneyline Parlay | +480 | 1.0 Unit

A four-leg MLB moneyline parlay? Why not?! Let's get a little crazy.

Brewers have Corbin Burnes on the mound and Milwaukee bats have been starting to heat up. I expect they’ll be able to give Burnes some decent run support against an average pitcher like Brubaker.

Astros have excellent BvP history against Patrick Sandoval and generally play well at home. Even with Altuve out, they have plenty of dangerous hitters along with a talented pitcher in Framber Valdez on the mound.

The A’s are probably the riskiest pick thrown into this parlay (and the odds reflect that), but Baltimore just hasn’t been able to get runs across the plate (2.20 runs/gm) and they’re rolling out an inexperienced starter on the mound in Chris Ellis who is due to get knocked around. Even with the COVID absences, I like Oakland to win this one at home.

Expect Musgrove to keep rolling at home against the wayward Reds offense that has been arguably the worst offense against righty pitching and is still without one of their best players (Jonathan India).

Xander Bogaerts (+500) & JD Martinez (+400) to Both Hit a Home Run | +2900 | 0.5 Units

This is the long-shot bet of the day -- and no one should be throwing much money at this one. But Kikuchi gave up a pair of home runs to the Red Sox when he last visited Fenway and RHBs tend to be responsible for the homers that Kikuchi allows, no matter the ballpark. It’s chilly in Boston tonight but the 10-15 mph winds blowing out may help carry this double HR prop to victory.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!