Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 4/19/19 | “On Deck” Podcast w/ Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

This is a loaded, jam-packed and double stacked 14-game Friday slate to kick off your weekend so I won’t be sputtering along too much with this intro. There are no discrepancies in the DraftKings and FanDuel main slate game selection for the first time in a few days but it seems there are quite a few spots across the country where we’ll need to keep an eagle eye on the weather conditions. Here we go!

Here are today’s match-ups & Vegas lines:

MIN @ BAL: This game has been postponed. Doubleheader tomorrow.

ATL @ CLE: This game has been postponed. Doubleheader tomorrow.

KC @ NYY: More of a chance for an in-game delay rather than an outright postponement. Pitchers seem far riskier than hitters here.

SF @ PIT: A good chance at a long pre-game delay -- around 2-3 hours if they want to get this game played. No in-game delay would make both pitchers and batters worth considering.

CHW @ DET: Possible light rain during this game. Winds are blowing out near 20 mph but combined with the cold conditions, this one may be pretty miserable for players and fans.

For now, these are the five games to monitor closely. As I mentioned, I’m going to avoid the game in Baltimore (and pitchers in New York) for the purposes of this newsletter since I’m writing this in the morning hours and going off of the currently projected conditions. But of course that doesn’t mean you should ignore these games if forecasts change for the better later in the day.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they're released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Madison Bumgarner (DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.5k) | LHP | SF @ PIT

Until a trend changes with the Pirates' ability to hit lefties, I’ll keep attacking them when given the opportunity. Against LHP this season, the Pirates are squeaking out a .209 AVG, .267 OBP, .245 wOBA, and .075 ISO with a 30.2% kRate - all numbers that rank inside the bottom three in the league. Through 26 innings this season, MadBum is holding opponents to a .211 AVG and .224 BABIP with a 0.92 WHIP and 3.12 ERA (3.96 xFIP). Remember that this is one of those games with weather concerns, but if they announce that they will look to open with a delay in effort to let the entire game play out after a late start, then I’ll give the southpaw a long look if I’m targeting a higher tier pitcher.

Anibal Sanchez (DK: $8.1k, FD: $6.8k) | RHP | WAS @ MIA

Anibal Sanchez won’t likely be a pitcher I target too much but one of the more consistent trends as of late is to take whoever is on the mound when facing Miami in the pitcher-friendly Marlins Park. Against RHP this season, Miami has only managed a .205 AVG, .275 OBP, .265 wOBA, and .121 ISO to go along with a 30.9% kRate. Miami’s 2.53 runs/game also ranks dead last in the MLB. Sanchez’s strikeouts have been down quite a bit through his 16.2 innings of work this year (14.9% kRate) but today I would expect him to meet or exceed his kRate that he had going last season (24.4%). Sanchez has also faced the Phillies in two of his three starts, so a go at Miami should be an easier foe to tackle. On the opposite side, Miami’s Caleb Smith (DK: $8.2k, FD: $7.6k) makes for an interesting GPP play as well since this game is a near pick ‘em with just a 7.5 implied total.

Aaron Brooks (DK: $6.9k, FD: $6.6k) | RHP | OAK vs. TOR

When looking for a cheap pitcher to punt, this is more about the match-up than the talent. The Blue Jays have the fifth worst batting average against RHP this season after only hitting for a .211 AVG. They also have a .291 wOBA, .161 ISO, and 28% kRate and as a team they are averaging just 3.75 runs/game. With a 16.4% kRate this season in 17 innings (and 14.8% kRate for his career), Brooks isn’t a huge strikeout guy by any stretch. However, Toronto has guys who strikeout a ton that could help bolster Brooks’ numbers today: Hernandez (29.7% kRate vs. RHP), Grichuk (29.3%), Tellez (27.8%), Maile (27.3%), and Smoak (26.9%). Not to mention other guys in the order like Galvis, McKinney, and Drury all have at least 22% kRates. Brooks is also limiting base runners with a .226 AVG and 1.12 WHIP. He can certainly return nice value at these salaries and he should get some run support with a solid Oakland offense backing him up. The A’s are -128 favorites with the Blue Jays holding a 3.9 implied run total.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors Field Preface: With the Phillies and Rockies in Coors Field tonight with a 10.5 run O/U, you can safely assume that they are two of the top stacks if you can afford them. But as we saw in yesterday's 6-2 Rockies win, you definitely don't have to force Coors bats in.

Houston Astros (RHBs) vs. Drew Smyly (LHP - Texas Rangers)

With so many quality right-handed batters, it comes as no surprise that they are able to knock southpaw pitchers around. Against LHP this season, the Astros have a .313 AVG, .386 wOBA, .217 ISO, .366 BABIP, and .382 OBP. Now they get to tee off in Globe Life Park, one of the best hitting environments in baseball, where currently the fifth most runs have been scored this year. In his limited action so far this season (11.1 IP), Smyly isn’t showing himself as someone we should be afraid to attack. He has a 20% kRate, 12.7% Walk Rate, 7.15 ERA (5.75 xFIP), 1.85 WHIP and has allowed 58.3% Hard Contact. It’s tough to see Smyly lasting too long here and the Rangers bullpen has been far from stellar when they need to come into the mix: 5.18 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP, and 1.82 HR/9. The most reliable plan would be to aim for the guys who should bat in the top third of the order: George Springer (.395 wOBA, .249 ISO), Jose Altuve (.388 wOBA, .192 ISO), and Alex Bregman (.393 wOBA, .233 ISO). Yuli Gurriel (.337 wOBA, .160 ISO) and Robinson Chirinos (.384 wOBA, .232 ISO) are a couple cheaper ‘stros bats you could work with who will be further back in the order.

St. Louis Cardinals (RHBs) vs. Jason Vargas (LHP - New York Mets)

The Cardinals have been putting plenty of runs on the board after averaging 6.6 runs/game in their last seven. Now they get Jason Vargas, whose days in this Mets rotation seem to be numbered. Vargas has only managed to stick around for 6.1 innings in his three starts this season and has posted a disastrous 14.21 ERA (8.17 xFIP), .424 AVG, 8.1% kRate, and 2.84 WHIP to go along with 63.3% Hard Contact. Even if he started ten more games, I’m not sure how much his numbers would improve at this rate. His fastball, which he throws on 55.2% pitches, has an average velocity of 84.7 mph this season. He might as well be putting it on a tee out there for big leaguers. When Vargas is almost inevitably pulled early, the Mets have a bullpen with struggles of their own: 5.87 ERA (5.23 xFIP), .348 BABIP, 1.70 WHIP, and 1.70 HR/9. I’d say about anyone in the Cardinals lineup is in play here but I would prioritize Paul Goldschmidt (428 wOBA, 260 ISO vs. LHP), Marcell Ozuna (.380 wOBA, .220 ISO), and Paul Dejong (.341 wOBA, .234 ISO).

New York Yankees vs. Jakob Junis (RHP - Kansas City Royals)

The thought here is that people may be scared off of this game due to weather. As I mentioned above, there is more of a threat for a mid-game delay so, while pitchers may be risky, hitters should be safe. But of course, see what the forecast is closer to game time. Junis’ 6.14 ERA isn’t as bad as it would indicate considering his xFIP sits way further below that number at 3.60. However, he’s still allowing a .304 AVG, .385 BABIP, and 1.55 WHIP, which are pretty below average numbers. The Yankees will also be able to take advantage of a Royals bullpen whose 6.06 ERA is the third worst in baseball and a 5.25 xFIP that ranks dead last. Their 1.72 WHIP is also the second worst and indicates that they’re putting plenty of guys on base. We know that Yankees Stadium has some really short areas of the park where balls that would normally be doubles in most places turn into home runs. Again, keep an eye on the weather, but I could see a two or three-man Yankees stack flying a bit under the radar today.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Cody Bellinger (DK: $5.6k, FD: $5k) | 1B/OF | LAD @ MIL

Hopefully I’m not pushing my luck with throwing out Bellinger as the spend up “one-off” hitter for two days in a row but this guy just rarely disappoints, especially in good spots. For his past 20 games versus righties (64 plate appearances), he’s bumped his numbers up to a massive .491 AVG and 1.219 wOBA+ISO to go along with eight home runs. Against Jhoulys Chacin he has a .417 AVG, 1.300 wOBA+ISO and two home runs in 16 career at-bats. When he’s teeing off once again in Miller Park, you really can’t find many reasons to argue against having some exposure to Bellinger today.

Elvis Andrus (DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.8k) | SS | TEX vs. HOU

Any time Justin Verlander takes the mound, no one is going to attack him with rostering opposing bats. Andrus, however, has enjoyed a pretty successful career against Verlander. While he hasn’t hit a homer against him, in 31 plate appearances Andrus has a .417 AVG against JV. In his last 20 games facing RHPs (58 plate appearances), Andrus has a .375 AVG, 10 RBIs, two home runs, and four stolen bases. The Rangers are still projected to score a decent amount of runs, with a 4.2 implied run total. So Texas bats shouldn’t exactly be avoided like the plague today.

Yonder Alonso (DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.9k) | 1B | CWS @ DET

The weather here will be pretty miserable but winds carrying out at 20 mph in an already hitter friendly park should be able to counteract some ill effects that batters will face. Alonso checks in as an affordable clean-up batter and for the BvP believers, he’s had a great career versus Jordan Zimmerman. Alonso is 7 for 18 (.389 AVG) against JZ with six of those hits going for extra bases, including four home runs, seven RBI and no strikeouts.

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Best of luck today! Be sure to give the “On Deck” podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney a listen if you haven’t already! You can find it linked at the top of the newsletter.

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