Top MLB DFS Plays 4/19 | Finding the Right Bats on a Pitcher-Centric Slate

April 19, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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A nice little six-game main slate is here to help alleviate any Monday blues. Looking at the complete scope of things, I’d say this sets up as more of a pitcher-centric slate simply due to the number of quality arms that are jammed into only six match-ups. I would still expect three or four of these offenses to pop off and balance things out a bit. Hopefully, we can land on the correct bats!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

TB @ KC: Wind blowing IN from left at about 15 mph. Temps in the 40s. Gonna be more difficult to hit HRs out in these conditions so pitchers get a boost.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Brandon Woodruff (RHP) | DK: $9k, FD: $9.6k | @ SD

I’m liking Woodruff from a GPP standpoint today simply because I believe most people will either opt to save some money and go with some less expensive arms OR, if they’re looking to take a pitcher in this game, it’s likely going to be Joe Musgrove (DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.5k). On the surface, this game clearly sets up as a pitcher’s duel with the over/under for runs currently set at 6.5 and the Padres moderate -150 favorites. Despite Woodruff pitching for the underdog (+130), the Padres have just a 3.6 implied run total and they’re a team that has struggled a bit as of late, scoring two runs or less in three of their last five games. The Padres have struck out only 18.1% of the time against RHPs, which is the lowest kRate in the league, so Woodruff is going to have to work hard for any Ks he gets. Through three starts and 17.0 innings this season, Woodruff is rocking a 2.12 ERA, 2.68 xFIP, 29.2% kRate, 0.76 WHIP, and .164 opponent AVG. After seeing his pitch count hit 95 throws in his last start, he could reasonably hit triple digits tonight and eat up plenty of innings. I doubt you’re getting 10+ Ks out of him, but he still has a decent chance to end the day as the slate’s top pitcher and shouldn’t carry high ownership.

Dylan Bundy (RHP) | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9k | vs. TEX

Bundy is pitching well, the Angels are the heaviest favorites on the slate (-220), and the Rangers have a 30.0% kRate versus RHPs this season (2nd highest). Expect a lot of people to gravitate to Bundy here, especially on DK where his $7.7k price tag seems about a grand too cheap. Across three starts and 19.0 IP, Bundy is posting a strong 28.6% kRate alongside a 3.33 SIERA, 1.05 WHIP, and is giving up only 22.0% Hard Contact. The Rangers have a below-average offense that will occasionally pop off in the right spots, but I don’t believe this will be one of those scenarios.

Danny Duffy (LHP) | DK: $7k, FD: $8.3k | vs. TB

Duffy draws a tough match-up against a Rays team that ranks as a top 10 offense versus LHPs with a team .339 wOBA and 126 wRC+. However, Duffy has begun his 2021 campaign with two strong starts across 12.0 IP where he has allowed just one earned run (0.75 ERA), a 1.17 WHIP, and a slightly above average 22.4% kRate. He’ll also have some helpful weather assistance with those cold temperatures and 15 mph winds blowing in from left field. It is a small sample size, but in 35 plate appearances against the current Rays roster, Duffy has racked up a 45.7% kRate and allowed a .188 AVG/.201 wOBA. The Rays have provided a 28.8% kRate to lefties this season, so even though Duffy isn’t typically someone you expect a ton of strikeouts from, he could rack some up tonight. I also love the fact that Duffy has thrown 97 and 100 pitches in his two starts this season.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: The Dodgers and Angels are the easy stack picks today and I expect plenty of people to target bats from those two teams. I’d have no issues rostering guys from either team, especially in cash game formats. But if you’re stacking either team in GPPs, just try to differentiate elsewhere.

San Francisco Giants vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), PHI

Anderson is one of the few pitchers on this slate that routinely gets knocked around early. Since the start of the 2020 season (12 starts, 42.2 IP), Anderson has accounted for a 6.54 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, .286 AVG, .389 wOBA, and has allowed a 2.70 HR/9 Rate. His 4.42 xFIP in that span is not horrendous, so he has gotten a bit unlucky and he’s not *as* bad as some of those numbers would indicate. Still, this is a nice match-up for the Giants offense that could use whatever boost they can get, and they do also get a solid park upgrade at Citizens Bank Park. Anderson has normal splits and can really struggle with lefty bats, so I would look to prioritize the San Fran LHBs first (Yasztremski, Belt, La Stella, Dickerson, Crawford) before mixing in the righties like Longoria and Slater.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Joe Ross (RHP), WAS

We’re spread pretty thin today on offenses in appealing spots (which is why the two LA teams will be targeted heavily) so I can’t put the utmost confidence in this Cards stack. Also, after opting out of the 2020 season, Joe Ross has been impressive through his first two starts (11.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 3.53 xFIP, .162 AVG, 0.82 WHIP, 22.5% kRate). It would seem he used the year off to get back to full health and he may not be someone to stack against if he continues to pitch the way he has. However, his .214 BABIP through his two starts this season has to be unsustainable, especially when you stack it up against his career .310 BABIP. St. Louis hasn’t exactly impressed with their offensive prowess this season (73 wRC+ vs. RHPs ranks 29th). However, if they can knock some negative regression into Ross’ 2021 numbers and cause him to exit the game early, they’ll draw some extra innings against a Nationals bullpen whose 4.86 xFIP ranks as the 2nd worst in the league.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

San Diego Padres vs. Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL

Stacking Padres is rarely ever going to seem ‘crazy’ but everyone knows this game is setting up as more of a pitcher’s duel so it’s doubtful that bats on either side of the dugout will carry significant ownership tonight. By the numbers Woodruff is more likely to succeed rather than fail -- however, as previously mentioned, the Padres have the lowest kRate vs. RHPs in the league (18.1%) and they’re overall a top 10 offense versus righties, especially with Fernando Tatis Jr. back in action. Even if San Diego doesn’t knock Woodruff around for a slew of hits/runs, if they can simply force long at-bats to make him pitch deep into innings, they could potentially cause him to get pulled after four or five frames and play the remaining innings against a Milwaukee bullpen that has struggled this season and ranks as a bottom 10 relief unit in many key metrics.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

Other hitters to target as one-off pieces or within mini-stacks.

OF Mike Trout | DK: $6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Kohei Arihara (RHP), TEX

The most expensive batter on both sites but could easily be worth spending up for today. Ronald Acuna Jr. is getting a ton of buzz lately, but since April 5th, Trout ranks second behind Acuna with a 276 wRC+ and .561 wOBA in that span. A good bet to go yard tonight and, if you’re not stacking Angels, he makes as much sense being deployed as a ‘one-off’ as just about any hitter on the board.

3B Justin Turner | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Justus Sheffield (LHP), SEA

Also expensive… but also crushing lately. Draws a match-up against a lefty in Sheffield. Turner has rocked a 1.079 wOBA+ISO and 280 wRC+ against LHPs over his last 20 games.

1B Rhys Hoskins | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), SF

Phillies won’t have an easy match-up against Kevin Gausman, who has been solid since the start of the 2020 season. But Hoskins can come through in this spot, especially since the Phillies are taking the field at home. Hoskins is hitting .361 at home with a .441 wOBA and 176 wRC+. Compare that to his road splits, where he has hit just .091 with a .159 wOBA and -3 wRC+. Hoskins is struggling against righties this season but across his career, he has pretty even splits so he is due to see some positive regression.

OF Jorge Soler | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Josh Fleming (LHP), TB

Soler’s big issue this season is that he is simply striking out too much (37% kRate). Fortunately for him, Fleming isn’t a high-K pitcher (17.9% kRate). Since 2020, Soler has created 47.4% Hard Contact versus lefties so, while the temps and wind conditions will make it tough to send one over the fence, Soler has the power to make it happen.

OF Willie Calhoun | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP), LAA

Calhoun is a cheap lefty bat who should be usable as a contrarian one-off pick going against a chalky Dylan Bundy. After missing the first 14 games with a groin injury, Calhoun is back in action and has started off 3-for-5 with a walk over the last two games.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Mike Yastrzemski | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Chase Anderson (RHP), PHI

Yaz would be a core part of any Giants stack I roll out tonight and, despite struggling early on this season, he’s a strong bet to send one deep in this game. Since 2020, Anderson has been terrible against LHBs (9.15 ERA) and has allowed them to hit for a .408 wOBA while giving up 3.2 HR/9 behind a 29.2% HR/FB rate. Yastrzemski has a career .251 ISO against RHPs and has created 41.5% Hard Contact along with a 46% Fly Ball Rate. Knock one over the fence tonight, Yaz!

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports), and The Welsh's (@IsItTheWelsh) HR Calls for each slate. If you throw it a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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