Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 No "On Deck" Podcasts on Thursdays

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

The weekend is near and there are ten games worth of action across the MLB landscape. Somehow, DraftKings managed to take ten games and throw out all these split up slates like it’s 2004 and they’re Oprah dishing out four-door sedans. For the third day in a row, the FanDuel and DraftKings main slate is not quite identical. FanDuel will include the Royals at Yankees game and begins at 6:35 ET. Our focus will be the five mutually shared games beginning at 7:10 ET. Also, hold on to your butts because we’re back at Coors Field and there are some big boy bats that you’ll probably want a piece of. There are no weather issues on the early look, so let’s dive straight into this one!

Here are today’s match-ups and Vegas lines (7:10 ET onward):

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they're released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Chris Paddock (DK: $9.1k, FD: $8.5k) | RHP | SD vs. CIN

Paddock is the clear ‘spend-up’ pitcher tonight against a low-end Reds offense that is averaging just 3.41 runs/game this season. This will be the rookie right-hander’s fourth start of his career and thus far, across 14 innings, he his striking out 30.2% of batters while posting a 1.29 ERA (3.82 xFIP), .128 AVG, .194 BABIP, and 0.86 WHIP. All really strong numbers in a small sample size except for his xFIP, which falls more in the “average” range of MLB pitchers. Save for a couple batters at the top of the order, the Reds don’t instill much fear with their lineup. Against RHPs, they have just a .263 wOBA, .156 ISO, .225 BABIP to go with a 24.9% kRate. Petco Park is one of the more pitcher friendly environments so it’s easy to see their struggles continuing tonight. The only knock on Paddock is that his pitch count has yet to hit 90 pitches. So unless the reigns are loosened on him a bit, it’s going to be tough to reel in a super dominant performance barring and ultra-efficient night. Still, he is the best bet to get you 25 DKP/35 FDP on the night if you can afford him. Cincinnati has just a 3.3 implied run total.

Tanner Roark (DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.3k) | RHP | CIN at SD

With the lowest game total of the night (7.5 runs), you could certainly make the case to play both pitchers in this game on DK, or choose either on FD and hope that it turns into more of a 3-1 type scoring affair. Roark doesn’t have the sort of upside to punch out ten batters… but six or seven? With the Padres 24.9% kRate against righties this year… very possible. Roark is considerably better against RHBs and the Padres starting lineup will very likely roll out at least seven righties. Against RHBs, since the beginning of last year, Roark has allowed a .258 AVG, .302 wOBA, .288 BABIP, and a 1.21 WHIP while walking just 5.6% of batters. Inside of a pitcher friendly park, his 30.6% Hard Contact Rate should limit the possibility of giving up home runs as well. Though he hasn’t gotten to six innings pitched yet this season, his pitch count has hovered in the mid-90s, which could be enough to get him through six IP tonight for a chance at returning a little more value. Around 15 DKP/25 FDP would be perfectly acceptable at his current salaries.

Ryan Yarbrough (DK: $7.4k, FD: $6.1k) | LHP | TB vs. BAL

If you played the “long reliever” game with Rays pitching last night and landed on Yonny Chirinos, it paid off pretty well for ya. After Chirinos pitched through five innings of work last night, Yarbrough is in line for the ‘innings eater’ role after starter Hunter Wood goes through his one or two innings of work. This is a bit of a gamble, however, because through three appearances this year, Yarbrough has only gone as far as 4.1 innings in relief. But if the Rays let him churn through five innings, he can definitely reach that 20 DKP range against these Orioles. Against LHP this season (216 plate appearances), Baltimore has just a .277 wOBA, .129 ISO, .279 OBP, and a 25.9% kRate. The Rays are huge -250 favorites so there’s also a good chance that Yarbrough could pick up the win in the right scenario. I would reserve this play for GPPs.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors Field Preface: With the Phillies and Rockies in Coors Field tonight with an 11 run O/U, you can safely assume that they are two of the top stacks tonight if you can afford them. With just four other games to dig through, I’ll highlight just two other stacks that I’m liking this evening.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Andrew Cashner (RHP - Baltimore Orioles)

The Rays bats have been popping lately and they are averaging 7.3 runs/game over their last seven. Now enter Andrew Cashner. Cashner isn’t particularly effective to either side of the plate so, feel free to take a stab at anyone in this order even going down to Zunino in the eight hole. Since the start of 2018, Cashner has a putrid 14% kRate, 9.9% Walk Rate, .365 wOBA, 1.59 WHIP, and 5.31 xFIP while giving up 1.5 HR/9. He’s pitched for at least five innings in his last three starts so even if the Rays put up several runs against him, he likely stays on the mound for at least half of this game. After that, the Rays will see an Orioles bullpen that has been one of the worst in baseball. They’re currently posting a 6.67 ERA (5.24 xFIP), .328 BABIP, 1.70 WHIP and have given up 21 home runs (2.30 HR/9). The amount of home runs given up by the next closest bullpen is 14. So, bad starter plus perhaps an even worse bullpen... could be another big night for the Rays.

Seattle Mariners vs. Chris Stratton (RHP - Los Angeles Angels)

On a small slate, there are no plays or stacks that are ever too sneaky but I always try to work some sort of contrarian angle with one suggested stack (hey, Giants sorta worked out yesterday!). After a blistering start to the year, the Mariners bats have cooled off considerably, as they have averaged just 2.5 runs/game over their recent six game home stretch. We’ll see if it’s a coincidence since our sample size is still relatively small, but they have averaged 8.33 runs/game on the road this season -- No. 1 in the MLB. They’ve also averaged 2.56 HR/game on the road -- No. 2 in the MLB. Angel Stadium is a bit more home run friendly than T-Mobile Park in Seattle, so maybe their bats can gain some life again. I’ll lean towards the lefties in the Mariners lineup because Stratton, since the start of last year versus LHBs, has allowed a .360 wOBA, .173 ISO, 1.61 WHIP, and 1.4 HR/9 while striking out only 15.1% of batters. Let’s see what type of production we can get from lead-off hitter Mallex Smith (.364 BABIP vs. RHP this season, 6 stolen bases), Daniel Vogelbach (.519 wOBA, .514 ISO), and Jay Bruce (.299 wOBA, .354 ISO). With the Mariners on the road, their stack potential also gets a slight bump from being guaranteed nine innings of work.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Cody Bellinger (DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.1k) | OF | LAD @ MIL

Bellinger came back from a one game absence yesterday after taking a pitch to the knee on Monday. He gets the Brewers today, who he dismantled in their recent three game series where he went 5-10 against them with two home runs and drew four walks (.643 OBP). Now he looks to keep his hot season going on the Dodgers trip into Miller Park where, as Christian Yelich shows us, baseballs fly. Bellinger’s last trip to Miller Park at the end of 2018 also resulted in him going yard. According to MyBookie.ag, Bellinger has +375 odds of hitting at least one deep today. Not bad!

Scott Kingery (DK: $4k, FD: $3.5k) | DK: 2B/3B, FD: SS | PHI @ COL

Kingery has stepped in for injured Jean Segura, who should likely be out of the lineup once again today. Kingery would make for a very affordable Coors bat to throw into your lineups and he has gotten off to a great start this season in his limited opportunities. In 28 plate appearances he is batting a .480 AVG with a .583 wOBA, .400 ISO, and .536 OBP. After garnering the five-hole spot in the order two days ago (3 H, 1 HR, 1 2B, 5 RBI) Kingery earned the number two spot yesterday and belted another homer. He’ll have the best environment possible to send out a dinger for the third day in a row.

Garrett Hampson (DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k) | 2B/OF | COL vs. PHI

We’ll take another cheap piece of Coors with Hampson, especially when he’s likely to be batting second in the order as he has for the last five games. Hampson isn’t hitting that effectively this year: .200 AVG, .227 wOBA, .109 ISO, .224 OBP -- but he’s coming in off of a 2 for 4 day with a homer, a single, a walk, and a stolen base. He’s also shown signs of reverse splits as a hitter, so the righty on righty match-up with Zach Eflin isn’t necessarily a negative. When you can get salary relief with a guy batting high in the order at Coors Field, it’ll work out for ya pretty regularly.

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