By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

I hope y’all had a great weekend and a Happy Easter if you happen to celebrate it! It’s a new week and that means one thing… new money! Monday’s MLB main slate chimes in with nine* games on the docket. I place the asterisk by “nine” because, right now, it’s looking like a bit of a stretch to assume all nine games will play. Forecasts can always improve (or worsen) in the hours following this newsletter being published but, as I’m writing this, it appears a few games will be dealing with some combination of rain, notable winds, frigid temperatures, and possibly even snow! I’ll delve further into the at-risk games in the weather section below but just be sure to keep a close eye on multiple forecasts leading up to lock! Even with the less-than-ideal weather bringing the possibility of a couple of games getting postponed, there will still be enough games leftover to make for a highly playable DFS slate. Though, with the added weather concerns, we’ll probably see Coors Field ownership through the roof today but for good reason. Let’s get into it!

Update: As you see below, the first two games on the main slate schedule have been postponed.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

ARI @ WAS (7:05 ET, 8 O/U): The first game on the schedule looks to carry the most PPD risk. There is a deluge of rain in the forecast before, during, and after this game is set to be played. It feels like a postponement is all but guaranteed so I won’t be highlighting any plays from this match-up in the newsletter. Perhaps they get lucky and things clear up (much) quicker than expected but the outlook is not so good. If they do play, winds are blowing IN at 10-15 mph.

Update: ARI/WAS has been postponed.

SF @ NYM (7:10 ET, 6.5 O/U): First off, wow, look at that run total. That has to be the lowest of the season thus far. It appears they’ll be able to start this game on time and play for a while without issue. However, possible rain coming in between 8 and 9 pm ET could threaten the later innings. Cool temps in the 40s with winds blowing a bit right to left, a bit IN from left at 15+ mph. Looks like a great pitching environment and I’m currently keeping DFS options on the board here, but do realize there is a real chance they may not finish this game.

Update: SF/NYM has been postponed.

TB @ CHC (7:40 ET, 8 O/U): Brrr, temps in the 30s, and the 15-20 mph winds blowing OUT to right field will make it feel more like temps are in the 20s. Precipitation percentages range from 10% to 30% and that’s likely to fall as snow as opposed to rain. At first look, it seems like they *can* play this game but it’ll be more a matter of whether or not they’re okay with players and fans dealing with those miserable conditions.

BAL @ OAK (9:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): Chance for some later inning rain but that doesn’t currently pose a significant threat.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Sean Manaea (LHP), SD | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.7k | vs. CIN

Since coming over from the A’s less than a week before Opening Day, Manaea has wasted zero time performing at a high level with his new team. In two starts and 13.0 IP for the Padres, Manaea has come away with a 1.38 ERA, 2.84 xFIP, 0.54 WHIP, and 28.9% kRate. He’ll make his Padres home debut tonight in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park against a Cincinnati team that has performed very poorly against southpaw pitching this season. The 136 plate appearances the Reds have had against LHPs in 2022 are the third-most in the MLB which is not exactly an insignificant sample size. In that time, they’re hitting just .179 with a .244 wOBA, .098 ISO, 48 wRC+, and a lofty 28.7% kRate. The Padres are heavy -175 favorites to win and the Reds’ 3.3 implied run total is tied for the lowest team total on the slate. He may not be cheap, but Manaea still checks in under $10k on both sites and has the potential to end the slate as the highest-scoring DFS pitcher.

Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.2k | @ CHC

*Remember, this game does currently have some PPD risk due to cold/windy conditions (& possible snow) expected in Chicago tonight.

As long as this game plays, McClanahan falls firmly on the DFS radar due to his immense K upside. While it won’t stay this high, McClanahan has a 39.5% kRate thru his two starts this season to go along with a slate-best 18.3% Swinging Strike Rate. This is following a 2021 season where he posted a strong 27.3% kRate in 123.1 IP as a rookie. He hasn’t pitched more than 4.2 innings in either of his two starts this season but what is encouraging is the fact that he threw 85 pitches in his most recent game last Wednesday. That 85 pitch count is a threshold he hit only ten times across 25 starts for the Rays last season -- and it wasn’t until his ninth start of 2021 that he threw more than 80 pitches. So the fact that the Rays are much more comfortable extending McClanahan’s leash more rapidly this season is an encouraging sign for the young lefty. The bad news is that the Cubs have hit lefties well early out of the gates in 2022. In 109 PA vs. LHPs, they have a .287 AVG, .385 wOBA, .223 ISO, 146 wRC+, and only a 15.6% kRate. But they also just played that four-game series at Coors Field and it’s well-documented that offenses can suffer a “Coors hangover” in their first couple of games following a road series against the Rockies. Even with 15-20 mph winds blowing out at Wrigley, the air is going to be cold and dense so hitters likely won’t benefit much, if at all, from those winds. If McClanahan can keep the walks down (five BB in 9.0 IP already) and continues to build on his pitch count, he’s looking like a pitcher to target in the mid-range today.

Frankie Montas (RHP), OAK | DK: $7.3k, FD: $9.9k | vs. BAL

DraftKings pinned Montas with a soft price today (11th most expensive SP option) so I would expect him to be a very popular SP2 target on this slate. Montas is the second-most expensive SP on FanDuel, so I imagine he’ll be much less desirable and lower-owned there, but he’ll still make for a sensible contrarian option in GPPs. He has K’d up six batters in each of his two starts this season while throwing 92 and 89 pitches. The six earned runs allowed have led to a lackluster 4.76 ERA but his 2.57 xFIP indicates that he has pitched considerably better in his first couple of games than the ERA shows. He has also walked only one batter while forcing a 16% Swinging Strike Rate so he’s showing excellent plate control as well. He’ll make his 2022 home debut tonight at Oakland Coliseum, an excellent pitcher’s park. After winning 2-of-3 against the Yankees, the Orioles may be exceeding expectations slightly but more so in the pitching department. They’re still towards the bottom of the barrel in nearly every major offensive category and their 2.33 runs/gm are tied for dead last with the D-backs. Against RHPs (197 PA), Baltimore is batting below The Mendoza Line with a .199 AVG and they’re providing plenty of strikeouts to opposing pitchers with a 25.9% kRate.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Obligatory Coors Stacks:

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

Non-Coors Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN

We know the Phillies will be the chalk stack of the day and, even against a quality pitcher in Aaron Nola, several Rockies bats should be up there in ownership as well. So, looking elsewhere, the Padres will have some stack appeal to go along with some fairly low ownership and mostly cheap DFS salaries. Nick Lodolo will be making just his second career MLB start and this will be his first start on the road. Lodolo does have some very impressive strikeout numbers in the minor leagues but even his minor league experience is not very extensive and he’s mostly pitched at the double-A level (44.0 IP in 2021) which is a sizeable step down from triple-A… and triple-A is, of course, a major step down from the MLB. Perhaps he’s a pitcher to keep an eye on further down the road if he manages to stick in the Reds rotation, but for now, it seems much more reasonable to attack him with opposing hitters. In his MLB debut, he gave up seven hits (two HRs), three walks, and five earned runs across four innings and 79 pitches. In 101 plate appearances against LHPs, the Padres have posted a .351 wOBA, .221 ISO, and 126 wRC+. Their batting average is only .221 against lefties but when they are getting hits, they’re getting BIG hits while also forcing a high 13.9% walk rate. The Reds relievers have also been well within the bottom ten bullpens in the MLB so even if Lodolo exits early, the Padres bats should still draw some advantageous match-ups.

Favorite SD Bats: Manny Machado, Luke Voit, Austin Nola | Sneaky Bat: Jurickson Profar

Los Angeles Angels vs. Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU

After averaging 7.3 runs/gm in their recent four-game series against the Rangers, the Angels may be an offense to target in hopes that they remain hot on the road in Texas as they get set to take on the Houston Astros. The big blow to this Angels stack, however, is the likely absence of Mike Trout from the lineup as he is currently listed day-to-day with a hand injury and is “unlikely to play tonight.” But even without Trout, the Angels still have six other hitters with >20 plate appearances this season who have posted at least a 107 wRC+. They’ll face Astros righty Luis Garcia who is a decent starting pitcher but he has not had success against this LAA offense. In 60 PA, the Angels are hitting .306 against him with a .444 wOBA, .347 ISO, and five home runs. The Astros bullpen is not off to a killer start either and their 4.21 xFIP ranks as the seventh-worst in the MLB.

Favorite LAA Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh, Max Stassi | Sneaky Bat: Taylor Ward

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

The Rays are a streaky offense at the moment and in their ten games played in 2022, they’ve scored three runs or fewer six times and eight runs or more three times. So there haven’t been many “in-between” results for them -- more “boom or bust.” They’re at Wrigley today in frigid, possibly postpone-worthy, conditions. But, assuming they play, they’ll go up against Kyle Hendricks who gave up seven hits, four walks, and six earned runs to Pittsburgh in only 3.2 innings in his last start. It does not happen on a routine basis but Hendricks certainly has the tendency to get blown up early in games and he’ll be supported by a middle-of-the-pack bullpen.

Favorite Bats: Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe, Ji-Man Choi | Sneaky Bat: Manuel Margot

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU

1B Rhys Hoskins | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

C Sean Murphy | DK: $4.8k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

3B Manny Machado | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN

OF Christian Yelich | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3k | vs. Zach Thompson (RHP), PIT

OF Connor Joe | DK: $4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

OF Michael Brantley | DK: $4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), LAA

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

1B Luke Voit | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN

2B/SS/OF Gavin Lux | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Huascar Ynoa (RHP), ATL

1B/2B/3B Michael Chavis | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL

2B/3B/SS Jack Mayfield | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU

OF Manuel Margot | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

1B Rowdy Tellez | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Zach Thompson (RHP), PIT

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Rhys Hoskins | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

I’ll be taking a bite from low-hanging fruit today by going to Coors with this HR Call. There are several bats in this game that have a great chance to go yard but Hoskins will be my guy today. He leads the Phillies roster with a 68.4% HardHit% this season. In 11 career games at Coors Field, Hoskins is hitting .289 with a .407 wOBA, .289 ISO, 51.6% HardContact%, and he’s knocked out four home runs. Kuhl came over from the Pirates and will be making his Coors Field debut as a Rockie. He’s not a bad starting pitcher and his traditional splits mean the Phillies LHBs have a higher probability of success. But Hoskins has a career .255 ISO versus RHPs and assuming he continues to produce those hard-hit baseballs, his chances of going yard are quite high today.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Player Prop or Bet | Odds | Unit Bet Size

Sean Manaea over 6.5 Strikeouts | +120 | 2.0 units

Manaea has been good for a strikeout per inning to start the season and the Reds have posted a healthy 28.7% vs. LHPs in 136 plate appearances. After tossing 88 and 86 pitches in his first two starts, it wouldn’t be a stretch to assume he could push well into the 90s on his pitch count this evening so getting the over on 6.5 Ks at plus money feels like a solid value.

Michael Brantley over 1.5 Total Bases (From Hits) | +120 | 2.0 units

Brantley isn’t going to blast 30+ home runs this season or anything but he is simply a rock-solid hitter who has posted a .300+ batting average in each of the last five seasons where he has played at least 120 games. By his standards, he is off to a slightly sluggish start to 2022 with his .270 AVG but this is a nice spot for him to snag multiple bases tonight as the Astros take the field for the first time at home this season. Angels starter Michael Lorenzen has struggled against lefty bats on the road throughout his pitching career where he has allowed a .283 AVG and .371 wOBA. In four of eight games played this season, Brantley has either hit a double or has multiple hits, so getting the over on 1.5 bases (on hits) at plus money against a starting pitcher who historically struggles against lefties on the road feels like a solid play to me.

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!