Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 4/17/19 | "On Deck" Podcast w/ Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

There’s plenty of ball being played throughout today. Hopefully all of you guys dipping your toes in the early slate are well on your way to green screens by the time this newsletter is sent out. Like yesterday, the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates differ a bit. FanDuel’s main slate begins at 6:35 ET and will include the BOS @ NYY, CLE @ SEA, and PIT @ DET games. DraftKings will be sticking to the usual 7:05 ET start time with the remaining seven games this evening. Those mutually shared games will once again be the focus of the newsletter. We have a couple weather concerns to pay close attention to, so let’s get to it!

Here are today’s match-ups and Vegas lines (7:05 ET onward):

Out in Minneapolis for the Blue Jays and Twins game, rain will be coming down well before the game is set to begin and continue until around 7 pm local time (CDT). It seems that the only way this one plays is if they decide to start as soon as the rain stops. That would result in around a 10 pm local time finish. With a current 50% chance of postponement, I’m going to move forward as if this game won’t play.

In Arlington there is about a 30% chance for postponement in the Angels and Rangers game. Going by what meteorologist Kevin Roth says, the main risk here is potential for “soft ball sized hail” in some of the storm cells that will be in the area of Globe Life Park. If that threatens the actual ballpark, they’ll call this game immediately. But I’ll move forward as if this one will play. Keep your eyes peeled on both of these situations later in the day!

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they're released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Cole Hamels (DK: $9.4k, FD: $9k) | LHP | CHC @ MIA

Until proven otherwise, rolling out any decent pitcher against the Marlins playing in Marlins Park is going to generally be one of the safest decisions you can make when choosing a pitcher. Hamels isn’t a high strikeout pitcher (19.5% kRate in 19 innings so far, 23% for his career) but he should be able to chew up plenty of innings with his 50.9% GB Rate, .232 BABIP, and 1.00 WHIP. He’s also thrown at least 100 pitches in all three of his starts thus far -- that could easily translate to eight innings of work against this Marlins team. Miami is averaging just 3.33 runs/game at home and against LHPs they have a .287 wOBA, .118 ISO, and .293 OBP. The Cubs are a -157 favorite while the Marlins have a 3.6 implied run total.

Yonny Chirinos (DK: $8k, FD: $7.3k) | RHP | TB vs. BAL

The Rays are set to deploy their “Opening pitcher + innings eater” strategy again today with Ryne Stanek likely to pitch for the first two innings before a long reliever comes in. As of now, there’s no definitive answer as to whether the long reliever will be Chirinos or Ryan Yarbrough, so tread carefully with this situation. If it’s indicated that Chirinos will be the guy, then I’ll have some interest. In his first two appearances this season as the long reliever, Chirinos threw 12 combined innings against the Astros and Giants, allowing four combined hits, one earned run and 11 strikeouts (23.5 and 28.6 DK points). In his last appearance at Toronto, he lasted just 2.1 innings and gave up seven hits, six earned runs, with three strikeouts (-6.2 DK points). It’s very much a risk/reward play but he could definitely pay off against the Orioles if you decide to go this route. But avoid him at all costs if the Rays announce that Yarbrough will serve as the main "innings eater."

Note: You'll have to un-select the "Show Probable Pitchers" option to easily find either Chirinos or Yarbrough.

Lance Lynn (DK: $7.5k, $7.1k) | RHP | TEX vs. LAA

I can’t believe I’m actually considering Lance Lynn pitching at Globe Life Park but the Angels just let Mike Minor go the distance against them last night while only managing three hits and struck out seven times. Minor is a lefty, which the Angels have been awful against this season, but they’re also just not very good against righties either. In 366 ABs, the Angels are hitting RHPs with a .235 AVG, .300 wOBA, .148 ISO, and .249 BABIP. I don’t love Lynn as a pitcher but he’s rolling with a 24.1% kRate, 3.8% Walk Rate, and 1.18 WHIP through three starts and has gotten a long leash with his pitch count, throwing 103+ pitches in each game. All it takes for things to fall apart for Lynn is one swing of Mike Trout’s bat with a couple guys on base. But if you believe the Angels lineup as a whole will put up another dud, then consider rolling Lynn out as a cheap risk/reward pitcher tonight. The Rangers get to tee off on Matt Harvey as well, so Lynn theoretically should have a good shot at getting some run support and credited with a win.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Texas Rangers vs. Matt Harvey (RHP - Los Angeles Angels)

I’m really hoping this game plays because Harvey would likely be the “gas can of the night.” Really, you could play about anyone in this Rangers lineup but the lefties have extra appeal. Against LHBs, Harvey has a .520 wOBA, .429 ISO, 2.68 WHIP, and 6.82 xFIP on 60.9% Hard Contact in the early goings of the season. Shin-Soo Choo (.363 wOBA, .193 ISO), Nomar Mazara (.340 wOBA, .184 ISO), and Joey Gallo (.316 wOBA, .316 ISO) all have major dinger potential if you can shell out the dough. Again though, keep an eye on the weather report and be prepared to late swap to some Astros/Athletics if nothing is announced until the last minute.

Atlanta Braves vs. Zack Godley (RHP - Arizona Diamondbacks)

Last year, Zack Godley was a pitcher I liked stacking against when he went on the road. His ERA jumped from 3.92 at home to 5.46 away and his kRate dipped from 26.7% to 20.8% home/away. You can scroll through his game logs on LineStar and see plenty of 6+ earned run road starts. Atlanta is averaging 5.64 runs/game at home this season and against righties, they have a .346 wOBA, .177 ISO, and .366 OBP. I’m okay with running anyone with a solid spot in the order but Ronald Acuna Jr. has been unstoppable in his last eight games: .585 AVG, .730 wOBA, .625 ISO with four home runs. He’d be the guy to pay up for and build around in Atlanta.

San Francisco Giants vs. Jeremy Hellickson (RHP - Washington Nationals)

Yes… stacking Giants is pretty ugly but they’re cheap and running maybe just a two or three man stack (maximum) would allow you to pay way up elsewhere. They get a sizable park upgrade going from Oracle Park to Nationals Park and are coming off of a seven run performance last night. Hellickson may be a popular value option at pitcher tonight for the obvious reason that the Giants aren’t very good. However, when pitching at home last season, his ERA rose nearly 1 1/2 runs from 4.50 down to 3.03 when on the road. His wOBA went from .338 to .276 home/away as well. Steven Duggar likely batting lead-off and Brandon Belt (.451 wOBA, .448 ISO vs. RHP this year) would probably draw most of what small amount of interest I have in this lineup. Kevin Pillar also has a .361 wOBA, .389 ISO in his last 10 games with four home runs and three stolen bases. I’m looking for some big boy bats tonight and taking a couple of these cheap Giants is one way to get ‘em! I’m going to go wash my hands after typing this now.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Austin Meadows (DK: $4.9k, FD: $4.4k) | OF | TB vs. BAL

Meadows had that three game stretch with four home runs last week and has cooled off since then, but his match-up against RHP David Hess may be one where he can get the long ball going again. Hess allowed a .352 wOBA, .259 ISO, and 2.55 HR/9 to lefties last season. Over his last 20 games against righties, Meadows has a .750 wOBA+ISO. Five of Meadows' six homers have come off of righties this year.

Alex Bregman (DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.8k) | 3B | HOU @ OAK

Bregman is really discounted on DraftKings after a $500 decrease from yesterday where he rocked out a grand slam in Oakland. I’m sure if DK didn’t release pricing until after that game, he’d be in his usual high $4k range. Bregman’s match-up with RHP Frankie Montas isn’t the best, as Montas does have normal splits and is solid against RHBs. However, he has allowed two home runs to each side of the plate in his three starts this season. Bregman is hitting for .325 AVG, .440 OBP, .427 wOBA, and .225 ISO in his 50 plate appearances against righties this season. He looks to be recovered from the tweaked hammy from last week so I won’t hesitate to throw him out in some lineups tonight.

Matt Adams (DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.2k) | 1B | WAS vs. SF

I’m writing this before lineups are released and there’s a decent chance Adams isn’t in the starting lineup if he is still nursing that rolled ankle from Saturday. But he did pinch hit last night and launched a solo home run in the 7th inning. If he gets the start, Adams has owned the BvP battle against Jeff Samardzija in his career. In 17 ABs, Adams has nine hits, including three home runs, two doubles with seven RBIs and a walk. That’s a .529 AVG, .556 OBP, and 1.732 OPS. I know there are BvP believers and non-believers but I’ll take a shot on those numbers if given the chance!

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Best of luck today! Be sure to give the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney a listen if you haven't already! You can find it linked at the top of the newsletter.

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