Top MLB DFS Plays 4/16 | Prepping for a Friday Super Slate

April 16, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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It can be easy to become a bit overwhelmed when you’re staring head-on at a mammoth 14-game slate like the one we have on deck this evening. But don’t get defeated by the slate before you can even put up a fight! Also, if these huge slates aren’t your jam, you can always opt for one of the 4-to-6 game split slates. However, I do believe these huge slates can be beneficial towards messing around with various contrarian GPP strategies because, despite there being 28 (edit: welp, down to 24 teams now… maybe one more PPD incoming) teams in play, the masses could still flock towards only a handful of directions. You don’t need me to tell ya this, but whichever way you decide to slice it, have fun and trust your process! Let’s get in it!

Edit: ALSO EXCUSE ANY TYPOS. Trying to push though through ASAP since this slate was a doozy to look into. The postponements coming in (mainly the Mets/Rockies) threw an extra hitch into the mix.

Match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

STL @ PHI: Could be some light rain coverage around but doesn’t seem like enough to put this game at risk. 10 mph winds blowing right to left.

TB @ NYY: Light rain could hang around the area but, as of now, it doesn’t seem like a major PPD threat. Possible late start? We’ll know more closer to lock.

NYM @ COL: POSTPONED

CWS @ BOS: POSTPONED

TOR @ KC: POSTPONED

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Note: Following the NYM@COL PPD, ignore any mention of deGrom below.

Getting the obvious out of the way:

Max Scherzer (RHP) | DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.4k | vs. ARI

After last night, the ghost of Patrick Corbin may still be floating around Nationals Park somewhere but Scherzer will look to redeem the Nats reputation tonight. Through two starts and 12.0 IP this season, Mad Max has only returned about 20 DKFP/35 FDFP in each start, which obviously you’re going to want more out of him than that if you’re spending up for an ace. Those were two tough starts against the Braves and the Dodgers, and he still forced an elite 17.7% Swinging Strike Rate / 31.8% kRate. It has been a while since we’ve seen the consistent ceiling out of Scherzer and the D-Backs are swinging the bat with conviction lately. I can’t ever call a healthy Max Scherzer a poor play, but I’d lean towards spending the extra $600 on deGrom if I’m going with one or the other. Either way, these two are far and away the most likely to finish No. 1 & No. 2 in fantasy scoring on this slate.

UPDATE: With NYM@COL PPD, I deleted the short blurb I had on deGrom. Scherzer’s projected ownership just took a major leap.

Zach Eflin (RHP) | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. STL

It appears that Eflin may emerge as one of the overall favorites options at pitcher tonight, outside of deGrom & Scherzer, and I’m not against it. Out of all of today’s starters, only the two aforementioned aces rank ahead of Eflin’s 27.1% kRate since the start of 2020. His 3.36 xFIP in that same stretch also ranks second on the slate (behind deGrom). Eflin looked great in his season debut against the Braves, giving up just one run across 7.0 innings while striking out eight. He then had the tough task of facing the same team in back-to-back starts -- the second time around on the road, where things did not go as smoothly. He’ll draw a strong bounce-back spot here. The Cardinals have been very middle-of-the-road against righties in all major offensive categories up to this point, and Eflin appears to be a rock-solid play this evening.

Frankie Montas (RHP) | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.5k | vs. DET

If you stray too far down the pitching totem pole, you may feel the sudden urge to jump back up and just click deGrom or Scherzer’s name and move on. Plenty of landmines taking the mound today. Montas is about as trustworthy of a pitcher as you’ll find in this price range today. Montas is a more reliable pitcher when taking the mound at home. In 71.1 IP in Oakland since the start of the 2019 season, Montas holds a respectable 3.53 ERA backed up by a 3.66 xFIP, 27.5% kRate, while allowing a .282 wOBA. You can really see this “better at home” trend show up by scrolling through his starts during the (non-shortened) 2019 season. He also put up a strong performance in his last start against Houston and his pitch count touched the triple-digits, which is a feat very few pitchers accomplish early on in the season. With a .323 wOBA and 106 wRC+ versus RHPs this season (both rank 7th), Detroit isn’t going to lay down quietly and just let Montas roll through their lineup. When it comes down to it, I believe Montas gets it done today and you also love his win upside as the A’s currently hold the 3rd best odds to win on the slate (-190 ML).

Jorge Lopez (RHP) | DK: $6k, FD: $5.7k | @ TEX

Hold onto your butts, this one isn’t for the faint of heart. Preface: Lopez should honestly only be used as a contrarian GPP SP2 punt on DraftKings for those who run more than just a few lineups. Is Lopez a good MLB caliber starter? Definitely not. However, his underlying pitching stats over the last couple of seasons would rank him more closely to the middle of the pack among today’s pitchers, rather than the very bottom, which is where he is priced. Lopez drew two top 10 offenses (vs. RHPs) to start this season in the Yankees and Red Sox and it didn’t go great, to put it simply. The Rangers should be a more manageable match-up. Even though Lopez isn’t a high K guy (18.4% career kRate), the Rangers could help him out there considering they’ve been K’d up 29.7% of the time against righties this season (3rd highest kRate). Approach with caution, but Lopez is going to be (by my guess) about 1-2% owned as an SP2 on DK. It’s not a complete insane thought that he could return 20 DKFP.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: Tough to really hone in on the potential high-owned stacks with so many teams in play. The Athletics were popular last night, at least over on DK, and they came through, so I imagine people will look to go back there (and I like the spot they’re in so no issue playing ‘em). [Updating this now to remove the obligatory “Mets at Coors Field should be popular” statement]. No other team is really popping off the page as a potential chalk stack -- wouldn’t really worry about offensive ownership much today anyway. Super easy to be unique this evening.

Washington Nationals (LHBs) vs. Taylor Widener (RHP), ARI

Back on board with the Nats stack today, with a bit of a lean towards the lefty hitters (Soto, Bell, Schwarber). Small sample size and all, but in 60 lefty hitters faced in his MLB career, Widener has allowed a .296 AVG, .430 wOBA, .340 ISO, 1.70 WHIP, and 2.92 HR/9. He’ll be backed up by a bullpen that has been decent, but nothing spectacular. Always worth keeping Trae Turner in play for Natty stacks regardless of platoon splits. Also, after being cleared from COVID protocols, Josh Harrison is another Nat bat to keep in mind after coming out of the gates hot over his first four games of the season.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Lewis Thorpe (LHP), MIN

Thorpe has some strikeout potential, but in every other attribute that is important to pitching, he has shown no significant upside across his 44.0 innings in the MLB. There’s a hint of reverse splits going on with him, but honestly, both sides of the plate have been able to hit him very well. His 28.1% Line Drive% hasn’t helped his case either and he gives up an above-average amount of hard-hit fly balls as well. This will be his 2021 debut and just his fourth career start, so he shouldn’t be slated to pitch deep into the game. I could imagine a likely scenario where the Angels tag him early and end up seeing Minnesota bullpen arms for much of the game. The Twins do possess what is firmly a top 10 bullpen right now, but I’ll take Trout, Ohtani, & Co. against a super unproven starter who could get shelled early, followed up by a bunch of relievers. (After all this speculation, look out for Thorpe to pitch a seven-inning gem with 13 Ks)

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Houston Astros vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), SEA

Kikuchi has put together a couple of solid outings and as he makes his third start of the season, he is going to snag plenty of ownership among pitchers tonight. And rightfully so. The Astros are basically a husk of themselves with Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and catcher Martin Maldonado all out of commission due to health and safety protocols. When at full strength, Houston has been arguably the second or third best offense against LHPs in the early goings of the 2021 season. They definitely would not be if it weren’t for the contributions of those now absent stud players. However, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, and Myles Straw are four active Astros who have AT LEAST a .385 wOBA and 153 wRC+ against LHPs on the season, so they’re still capable of doing some damage. With 43 career starts (220.2 IP), Kikuchi isn’t exactly an ultra established high-end pitcher and he has a tendency to either come out hot or come out cold, not much in between. If we see the bad Kikuchi take the mound tonight, there are still some capable bats in Houston.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

With all these teams in play, I don’t want to stick to just three one-offs like usual, so I’ll quickly list off several additional guys at descending price points (who aren’t a part of any suggested stacks above):

OF Nick Castellanos | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.2k | Michael Wacha (RHP), TB

3B Justin Turner | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), SD

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jeff Hoffman (RHP), CIN

1B Nate Lowe | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jorge Lopez (RHP), BAL

SS Didi Gregorius | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Carlos Martinez (RHP), STL

2B Jed Lowrie | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Jose Urena (RHP), DET

OF Mitch Haniger | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Jose Urquidy (RHP), HOU

OF Corey Dickerson | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP), SF

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3k | vs. Taylor Widener (RHP), ARI

I mentioned earlier how I’m down to go back to the Nats bats today, and I’m specifically targeting the lefties. Schwarber is of course one of those lefty sluggers and he should find himself in the clean-up spot once again. Kinda going out on a limb here with Schwarber because he’s only four games and 18 at-bats deep into the 2021 season, but when he’s in the box, he is almost always intending to go yard. Widener is a home run prone pitcher and is a decent bet to get taken deep by one or two of these Washington power bats. I’m hoping it’s Schwarb-o that snags one.

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports), and The Welsh's (@IsItTheWelsh) HR Calls for each slate. If you throw it a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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