Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 4/16/19 | "On Deck" Podcast w/ Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

So we have a massive main slate to pick apart today so if it’s okay with you all, I will go quickly with the pleasantries! The main thing to make note of is that the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates differ a bit. FanDuel’s main slate includes both of the BOS @ NYY and PIT @ DET games and will begin at 6:35 ET. DraftKings begins it’s main slate at the usual 7:05 ET. For the sake of consistency, I will only be focusing on the 13 mutually shared games for both sites. Lastly, before we get into the nitty gritty, Christian Yelich is pretty good, huh? Okay, let’s do this.

Here are today’s match-ups and Vegas lines (from 7:05 ET onward):

By some miracle there doesn’t appear to be any threat of rain across this massive slate. And, if you paid attention to yesterday’s LAA @ TEX game, those 15 mph winds blowing in at Globe Life Park in Arlington don’t hurt offense and in some cases can actually help carry the baseball out. It’s also going to be near 80 degrees during this game so things are starting to warm up in one of the premiere hitters parks. That 10.5 run total should come as no surprise!

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they're released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Tyler Glasnow (DK: $10.6k, FD: $10.6k) | RHP | TB vs. BAL

It takes all of ten seconds to scan today’s games, see the massive “-250” moneyline odds for Tampa Bay, and realize that they are easily the largest favorite on the slate. Typically that is a sort of moneyline reserved for guys like deGrom, Scherzer, or Verlander. The sort of production Glasnow is putting up, of course, isn’t sustainable, as his one earned run across three starts and 17.0 innings has led to a 0.53 ERA. However, his 2.52 xFIP and 2.78 SIERA indicate that he’s not getting insanely lucky by the randomness aspects of baseball. His fastball, which he is throwing on 64.8% of pitches, has an average velocity of 96.5 mph. He’s also added a tick of speed to his curveball (up from 82.1 to 82.7 mph) and he’s been throwing it about twice as much as he did last season, now 31.1% of his pitches. Of course this is only a 17 IP sample size but worth noting regardless. The Orioles maybe aren’t as terrible as we first thought at the very beginning of the season -- they actually hover around the middle of the league in terms of offensive numbers. Still, against RHPs, a .303 wOBA, .154 ISO, .271 BABIP, and 31.5% Hard Contact Rate shouldn’t be an offense that scares us off of spending up on Glasnow tonight.

Max Fried (DK: $8k, FD: $8.3k) | LHP | ATL vs. ARI

Fried has put up two impressive starts after not allowing an unearned run to either the Cubs or Rockies (at Coors) to go with a .130 AVG, 1.62 BABIP, 0.66 WHIP, and 3.58 xFIP. His kRate only sits at 18.4%, down from 31% last year but even though he was brought in in advantageous situations as a reliever for much of last season (therefore increasing his kRate), we should still expect his current strikeout numbers to rise. The Diamondbacks are hitting lefties well this season: .362 wOBA, .244 ISO, .344 BABIP, with a 22.2% kRate so there is a bit of risk involved here. However, if Fried can increase his strikeout rate, then the Braves offense is always a good bet to provide strong run support and help Fried garner his third win in as many starts. Atlanta is a -145 home favorite while the Diamondbacks have a 3.9 implied run total.

Nick Margevicius (DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.7k) | LHP | SD vs. COL

The Rockies, somewhat unexpectedly, tagged up Lucchesi last night but I’m going to embrace the thought of that being an outlier and attack them away from Coors again tonight. Margevicius has gotten two of his three starts against a poor Giants lineup but I don’t think that should nix him from consideration. Across 16 innings, he has a 1.69 ERA, 3.95 xFIP (somewhat concerning), .167 BABIP, 0.63 WHIP, and 20.3% kRate. The Rockies have the third most plate appearances (245) against lefties this season, so it’s a decent sample size to work with. Against LHP, they have a 25.7% kRate, .270 wOBA, .146 ISO, and .268 BABIP. On a day where there are so many ways to go after pitching, this is a spot that could go overlooked. Petco Park is one of the best pitcher’s parks, evidenced by this 7.5 game total -- and this isn’t exactly an ace versus ace match-up (though I have some interest in Jon Gray as well). The Padres are -125 favorites while the Rockies have a 3.4 implied run total.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Texas Rangers (RHB) vs. Jaime Barria (RHP - Los Angeles Angels)

Conditions in Texas were essentially the same last night as we’ll see tonight and we saw five combined home runs, 19 total runs scores. Should we expect similar numbers tonight? Probably not to that extreme. Is it possible? No doubt. Barria has pitched just 2.2 innings this season after getting called up from triple-A so, going off his 2018 numbers (129.1 IP), I believe he is a pitcher with reverse splits who we can stack righties against. Against RHBs, he has a .358 wOBA, .198 ISO, 5.60 xFIP, 17.3% kRate, 1.44 WHIP with a 47.4% Fly Ball Rate. This isn’t a Rangers lineup loaded with right-handed power but Elvis Andrus (.442 wOBA, .238 ISO), Asdrubal Cabrera (.333 wOBA, .333 ISO) and Delino Deshields (.370 OBP, 6 Stolen Bases) are a few guys who could round up some production tonight. If Shin-soo Choo (.426 wOBA, .229 ISO, .439 OBP) bats lead-off, he’s the top LHB to target.

Tampa Bay Rays (LHB) vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP - Baltimore Orioles)

Bundy is not especially great against either side of the plate but he did strike out 31.4% of RHBs in 2018 with a 1.08 WHIP and 3.24 xFIP, so I’ll give him some respect there. Against LHBs, however, he had a 17.9% kRate, 1.80 WHIP, 5.50 xFIP, .399 wOBA, and 1.94 HR/9 on a 46.7% Fly Ball Rate. The Rays offense is humming lately, as they have 39 runs in their last five games (7.8 runs/game). I’ll jump on the batters with the favorable splits in this order that’s been heating up. Austin Meadows (.493 wOBA, .383 ISO), Brandon Lowe (.414 wOBA, .333 ISO), and Kevin Kiermaier (.430 wOBA, .341 ISO).

Los Angeles Dodgers (LHB) vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP - Cincinnati Reds)

Don’t let Mahle’s 0.82 ERA (3.58 xFIP) through two games fool ya, he’s only faced the Pirates and Marlins. He’ll have to take on the Dodgers in Dodger Stadium where they’re averaging 6.55 runs/gm (3rd in MLB) and 2.27 HRs/gm (2nd in MLB). Load up on some Dodger lefties because Mahle was abysmal against LHBs in 2018 -- .415 wOBA, 15.5% Walk Rate, 2.00 WHIP, 5.54 xFIP, 2.55 HR/9 on 44.7% Hard Contact and 45.1% FB Rate. Pretty scary numbers going against the best team in baseball against right-handed pitching. If you can afford ‘em, get some exposure to Joc Pederson (.495 wOBA, .511 ISO vs. RHP this season), Cody Bellinger (.654 wOBA, .574 ISO) if he’s healthy after getting hit in the leg last night, and Corey Seager (.372 wOBA, .227 ISO). 

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Christian Yelich (DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.8k) | OF | MIL vs. STL

I mean, I’m not sure how you could completely fade Yelich at home and feel good about it right now. All eight of his 2019 home runs have come at Miller Park, seven off of right handed pitchers (like Jack Flaherty). My only concern at this point is if the Cardinals will even pitch to him after he sent three deep on them last night for seven RBIs.

Alex Gordon (DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.9k) | OF | KAN @ CWS

Against righties, Gordon is batting for a .357 AVG this season with a .429 wOBA and .238 ISO. Reynaldo Lopez has given up a couple homers already to LHBs in 4.2 innings this season with a .554 wOBA and 4.07 WHIP. Super small sample size, sure. But we’ll see if we can’t jump on a very, very early trend against Lopez with Gordon today.

Jose Ramirez (DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.1k) | 3B | CLE @ SEA

I had Ramirez posted here yesterday as a cheap hitter and he came through with his first homer of the season, a couple stolen bases, and two walks. I’ll go back to the well here in hopes that this is more of catching a quality hitter coming out of a slump and not just chasing points. His DK price only rose $300 while his FanDuel salary stayed the same. So he’s still a cheap enough batter to target that won’t kill a lineup with a dud “0-3, 1 BB” type performance. Assuming Ramirez bats righty today, Mike Leake has given up four homers in 7.2 innings to righties already this year to go along with a .445 wOBA and 53.6% Hard Contact on a 59.3% FB Rate.

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Best of luck today! Be sure to give the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney a listen if you haven't already! You can find it linked at the top of the newsletter.

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