Top MLB DFS Plays 4/15 | Should We Pay Up For Today's Aces?

April 15, 2019

Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

What a weekend for sports! Between watching Tiger’s Masters win, NBA playoffs tipping off, some entertaining MMA fights, and plenty of baseball to tune into, I was one with the couch for a couple days there (and may have had too much pizza and beer). Our program for Monday will give us an interesting nine game main slate with a few big arms in some potentially tricky spots. Clayton Kershaw is also scheduled to make his season debut after rolling through a couple minor league rehab starts but he may have to shake off a bit of rust and there’s no clear indication of what sort of leash may be on his pitch count. Now let’s fight off the Monday blues by spitballing some MLB DFS plays for this evening!

Tonight’s games and Vegas lines:

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Pitchers to Consider

Joey Lucchesi (DK: $9k, FD: $8.2k) | LHP - San Diego Padres | vs. COL

Of course at the top there are a few ace pitchers taking the mound today but I don’t *love* any one of them enough to feel the urge to highlight them as a high-priced DFS option. Syndergaard would probably be my choice if I were looking to start a lineup build with one of those aces, however. I believe we could be able to get similar ace-like upside with Lucchesi, who does have the ability to toss between 8 and 10 Ks himself, but at a more affordable price tag. He’s also coming off of a letdown performance in his last start when he was about the chalkiest pick of the slate, so he could go a bit under-owned as people hold their grudge. Getting the home start, where his numbers tend to improve historically, at a pitcher-friendly park like Petco Park is a bonus as well. The Rockies are a team that we can target when they’re away from Coors Field, as they have been awful on the road to start this season. In 379 plate appearances on the road, they have a 30.1% kRate, 4.5% Walk Rate, .189 AVG, .215 wOBA, and a .079 ISO. Those are some wildly poor offensive numbers. 

Trevor Richards (DK: $8.2k, FD: $7.3k) | RHP - Miami Marlins | vs. CHC

Richards falls in that sort of price range that often gets overlooked. Usually pitchers in this range aren’t going to be a big name ace with elite perceived upside and they’re also not cheap enough for some to consider ‘worth it’ as a value pitcher or SP2. Playing pitchers against the Cubs also has a higher associated risk due to their generally strong offense, but Richards is another guy who gets a bump for playing at home, as Marlins Park is the #3 most pitcher-friendly park. His career splits at home include a 23.7% kRate, .289 wOBA, .274 BABIP, and 1.19 WHIP. You can’t really count on much run support from his Marlins offense, which largely affects Miami's +145 odds today, but he’s posted strong fantasy performances in his three 2019 starts (15.9, 16.7, 23.9 DKP) and has gone for 6 IP in all three. Schwarber (28.5% kRate), Baez (28.2% kRate), Contreras (23.5% kRate), Bryant (22.3% kRate), and Descalso (22% kRate) all strike out enough to give Richards some solid upside. Add in the fact that he should see Yu Darvish (59.4% kRate) get a couple at bats as well and there is room for a sneaky good performance for him today.

Martin Perez (DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.4k) | LHP - Minnesota Twins | vs. TOR

So I could see this play going either really well or really poorly without much chance for anything in between. Perez will be picking up his first start of the season after putting in 8.1 innings of relief work in three previous games. His pitch velocity on his fastball this year has risen 2.1 mph from his career average of 92.6 mph and is now up to 94.7 mph and may be a contributor to his 26.7% kRate to start the year. It may also be a cause for some control issues that he has going on in this early span of appearances, as he is rocking a 20% Walk Rate and 2.40 WHIP -- not good. But his match-up with the Blue Jays is where the majority of interest from me comes from. Against lefties this season (162 plate appearances), Toronto has a .211 AVG, .239 wOBA, .075 ISO, and 27.8% kRate. They’re bad enough that four or five innings of work from Perez could yield some solid strikeout numbers and a good fantasy day even if he gives up a couple runs in the process. The Twins are also slight -123 favorites with Toronto holding a 3.9 implied run total, so Perez could also have a chance to play himself into getting credit for a win and overall allow you a bit more room for some big bats. This is far from a cash safe play, however.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Milwaukee Brewers (LHB) vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP - St. Louis Cardinals)

Hudson only has 37 professional innings pitched but he’s shown extremely poor splits against left-handed batters in the early goings of his MLB career. Against LHBs he has a .427 wOBA, 2.47 WHIP, .383 BABIP, 5.84 xFIP, and a 44% Hard Contact Rate. Miller Park favors hitters in a big way and the Brewers have been crushing it at home this season. They average an additional +2.51 runs at home (6.29) as opposed to on the road (3.78). They’re also averaging 2.57 HRs per game at home, which leads the MLB. Even though the Cardinals may get their bullpen involved early on, I would still prioritize the Brewer lefties. Christian Yelich (.728 wOBA+ISO), Yasmani Grandal (.598 wOBA+ISO), Mike Moustakas (.557 wOBA+ISO), and Travis Shaw (.640 wOBA+ISO) would be my preferred options.

Kansas City Royals vs. Ervin Santana (RHP - Chicago White Sox)

In his first start of 2019 that came against the Rays, Santana made it through just 3.2 innings allowing 7 H (3 HR!), 7 ER, 3 BB, and had just one strikeout across 88 pitches. He only pitched 24.2 innings in 2018 but in that time he was still about as bad as his first start would indicate: 14% kRate, 1.62 WHIP, 6.68 xFIP, and 3.28 HR/9. His fastball is rarely cracking 90 mph and it really would seem that his days in the MLB are numbered. Pretty much anyone in the Royals order should be in play today but of course prioritize anyone batting sixth or higher.

Miami Marlins vs. Yu Darvish (RHP - Chicago Cubs)

The Marlins are averaging 2.88 runs per game, so suggesting them as a team to stack will probably not be a common occurrence whatsoever but this should be telling of how ‘off’ Darvish has looked through three 2019 starts. In his 12 innings so far, Darvish has just a 17.5% kRate, 19.3% Walk Rate, 6.02 xFIP, 6.50 SIERA, and 1.92 WHIP. Perhaps a match-up with Miami is what Darvish needs to get back on track but, until he shows any hint of his old self, then betting against him with any team will be worth a look. The Marlins are also pretty much as cheap of a stack as you’ll find. Brian Anderson (.347 wOBA), Neil Walker (.336 wOBA), and Jorge Alfaro (.353 wOBA) are the Marlins who have shown at least some signs of life lately. I would assume Austin Dean gets a fourth consecutive start after his huge four-hit, five RBI game on Saturday and he could be in play as well. I wouldn’t go crazy with any of these guys but a two or three man stack here and there seems viable and would help you get up to whatever stud pitcher(s) you’d want.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Cody Bellinger (DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.1k) | OF | LAD vs. CIN

Luis Castillo is pitching really well through three starts but a couple games against Miami and Pittsburgh can definitely help most any pitcher look good. This will be his first start on the road where his career numbers suffer pretty significantly by most meaningful pitching metrics (kRate, xFIP, BABIP, WHIP, and wOBA all take a sizable dive). Bellinger has been worth his hefty DFS price tag nearly every time out and he only has three games scoring single digit (DK) fantasy points this season. I expect the lefty on righty match-up against a hot Castillo to keep Bellinger’s ownership down today but his ceiling against anyone is matched by very few hitters in this league.

Tim Anderson (DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.8k) | SS | CWS vs. KC

Anderson has been incredibly productive in April and seems to be hitting anyone he faces. In his last nine games he has a .459 AVG, .507 wOBA, .270 ISO, .560 BABIP, with three home runs and four stolen bases. Heath Fillmyer isn’t very good to begin with and likely may not make it more than three or four innings. After that, Anderson and the White Sox will see a Royals bullpen that has allowed a .302 AVG, .355 BABIP, 5.73 xFIP, 1.78 WHIP with just a 17.4% kRate. Anderson has a hell of a hot bat going right now and should be in a great situation to produce today.

Jose Ramirez (DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.1k) | 3B | CLE @ SEA

If it weren’t for Chris Davis, Ramirez would probably have a bit more criticism flying his way as a hitter who is in the midst of a wildly terrible cold streak. This year he is hitting for just a .140 AVG with a .167 wOBA and .053 ISO. But now his DFS prices are starting to dip to a point where he’s worth taking a shot on and he shouldn’t completely kill your lineup if his slump continues. His match-up with Yusei Kikuchi should be a solid one, as he isn’t striking out very many RHBs (15.6%) and has a 4.65 xFIP to that side of the plate. For a guy who used to be priced around players like Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, and Cody Bellinger not all that long ago (while actually being deserving of such a price tag), something’s gotta give!

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