Top MLB DFS Plays 4/15 | Happy Jackie Robinson Day

April 15, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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We first pay homage to the life and legacy of a man who created a lasting impact on the game forever. One who was a champion for change and broke baseball’s color barrier 74 years ago today. Happy Jackie Robinson Day! #42

It’s another split slate kinda day in baseball, so I’m wishing good luck to anyone gunning for an afternoon GPP. The main slate for this evening will be a spicy little five-gamer starting up at 7:05 ET. Despite only five games being on the docket, I could see things play out about a million different ways here. There’s no certified ace pitcher(s) to choose from, yet no outright gas can arms to fully avoid either (well... maybe one). The same pretty much goes for the offenses as well. Aside from the Dodgers, who lead the league with a team 139 wRC+, there are no other top 12 offenses on the slate (going by the wRC+ metric). So, let’s see if we can beat the dealer today and draw the right cards.

Main slate match-ups with implied game totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

No significant weather notes for this slate. Four of the five games are outdoors this evening and will see temps in the 50s. No rain in sight. No real impactful winds either.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Julio Urias (LHP) | DK: $10.1k, FD: $9.6k | vs. COL

Pretty easily the standout ‘spend-up’ option today. He’s $1,100 (DK) and $1,500 (FD) more expensive than the next closest pitcher in salary, so you will be sacrificing some potential upside with your hitters if you roll with him. But Urias, while not a prolific strikeout guy (no pitcher on this slate really is) still has a decent enough 22.9% kRate. He really just does a nice job at limiting baserunners (1.15 WHIP in 2020) and can eat up more innings on a lower pitch count since he doesn’t really rely on strikeouts. Clearly, though, the main draw is the fact that he’s stepping on the bump against this ineffective Rockies lineup. The Rockies rank 29th in baseball with a 64 wRC+, though they have been a bit better against LHPs with an 87 wRC+… which still ranks them at 25th.

Rich Hill (LHP) | DK: $9k, FD: $7.7k | vs. TEX

Hill actually leads the slate with a 25.2% kRate over the last 20 starts. He threw 71 pitches in his first start of the season and followed that with an 83 pitch day last week, so ideally he would inch closer to 90-95 pitches today. But it is tough to get a feel on his prospective pitch count considering Hill’s extensive injury history. Despite the aging arm and not being the perfect picture of health, Hill has looked solid through two starts and 10.0 innings this season by posting a 1.10 WHIP and 27.5% kRate. The 7.20 ERA looks ugly, sure, but his 3.61 xFIP tells us that he has simply been getting unlucky or hasn’t gotten enough defensive help. Regardless, this is a plus match-up with a Texas team that got no-hit by Joe Musgrove last week. The Rangers have a high 27.2% kRate against LHPs along with a .217 AVG, .121 ISO, .279 wOBA, and 77 wRC+ -- all metrics which rank near close to the bottom of the league. Hill and the Rays are the second heaviest favorite today (-185) behind the aforementioned Urias/Dodger squad. Hill’s FanDuel price also is just too cheap and he’s still a fine SP1 play on DK at $9k.

Jakob Junis (RHP) | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6k | vs. TOR

The regression monster could kick in at any time for Junis but for now, he seems like the most appealing cheap arm on the slate in my book. I’m hesitant about it, for sure, but he has gone 7.0 innings without giving up a run this season, alongside nine Ks (36% kRate), and is credited with a 2.66 xFIP. In his 7.0 innings pitched in spring ball, he also had similar numbers and struck out 10 hitters in that span while allowing a .083 AVG and 1.29 ERA. I don’t believe Junis will pitch too deep into this game, perhaps even only about 60-65 pitches. But if we can get five innings out of him and he brings the same stuff he had against Cleveland last Wednesday, he could pay off these low-end salaries.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: They actually weren’t too popular yesterday, which did make sense given the pitching match-up, but I imagine the premiere Dodgers bats will take precedence for many people today.

Oakland Athletics vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

The A’s could also end up being the chalkiest stack on the slate as well, but I wanted to highlight them regardless. Skuball is going to have to deal with an Oakland offense that struggled to start the 2021 season but has since won four in a row while averaging 7.25 runs/gm. The A’s have a ton of right-handed power which… is bad news for Skubal who has allowed a .398 wOBA, .352 ISO, and a 3.41 HR/9 Rate to the 143 RHBs he has faced in his brief MLB career. If the A’s knock Skubal around early, he’ll be backed by a Detroit bullpen that has allowed a league-high 2.35 HR/9 with a poor 1.52 WHIP, 6.65 ERA, and 4.96 xFIP.

Washington Nationals vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

The 3-6 Nats are another team that has gotten off to a slow start, which COVID issues to start the season obviously didn’t help with. Perhaps a date with Merrill Kelly will help their offensive woes. Through two starts and 10.0 IP, Kelly has given up 14 hits and three walks (1.70 WHIP), nine earned runs (8.10 ERA, 5.64 xFIP), and has struck out only five batters (10.9% kRate). To be fair, his first start of 2021 was on the road against the Padres and his second came at Coors Field. Any pitcher could struggle in that scenario. However, even when Kelly brings his best stuff, he can still give up plenty of power. He has allowed a 43% Hard Contact Rate across his career as well as a 1.44 HR/9 Rate. He will also be backed by what has been a fairly average bullpen, at best.

Washington Nationals vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

The 3-6 Nats are another team that has gotten off to a slow start, which COVID issues to start the season obviously didn’t help with. Perhaps a date with Merrill Kelly will help their offensive woes. Through two starts and 10.0 IP, Kelly has given up 14 hits and three walks (1.70 WHIP), nine earned runs (8.10 ERA, 5.64 xFIP), and has struck out only five batters (10.9% kRate). To be fair, his first start of 2021 was on the road against the Padres and his second came at Coors Field. Any pitcher could struggle in that scenario. However, even when Kelly brings his best stuff, he can still give up plenty of power. He has allowed a 43% Hard Contact Rate across his career as well as a 1.44 HR/9 Rate. He will also be backed by what has been a fairly average bullpen, at best.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

It seems like people don’t know what to do with Corbin today. He still has the name recognition and plenty of people default to viewing him as a really solid pitcher. But he also just hasn’t been consistently good in a while. Over his last 70.0 IP dating back to the start of the 2020 season, Corbin has posted a 5.14 ERA, 4.20 xFIP, 1.60 WHIP while allowing a .310 AVG, .363 wOBA, 1.4 HR/9, and a very, very average 20.6% kRate. The D-Backs offense has been solid lately, averaging 6.0 runs/gm and a 113 wRC+ over their last five. The Washington bullpen also hasn’t been a lockdown unit, so there is some room to succeed for this Arizona lineup if Corbin does indeed continue to struggle.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

3B Justin Turner | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Turner has started off his 2021 campaign hitting .390 with a .489 wOBA, .341 ISO, and 213 wRC+. He has recorded eight extra base hits in 41 ABs and will have a great chance to collect some more bases against the lefty Austin Gomber. In 113.1 career IP, Gomber has a poor 1.41 WHIP and 4.75 xFIP. Turner can be lethal against lefties and has mashed for a .594 wOBA and .536 ISO against LHPs over his last 20 games. If you aren’t stacking Dodger bats, Turner makes plenty of sense as a one-off piece batting out of the heart of this lethal lineup. Small sample size, but Turner is also 4-for-6 against Gomber with two doubles.

SS Bo Bichette | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jakob Junis (RHP), KC

If Junis does happen to crash back to reality today, Bichette could be one of the primary culprits. Bichette is coming in hot, hitting .394 over his last eight games with four homers, three doubles, 10 RBI, and a couple of stolen bases. In that span he has accounted for a beefy .522 wOBA, .455 ISO, 237 wRC+, and is creating 46.2% Hard Contact.

1B Rowdy Tellez | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Jakob Junis (RHP), KC

Sticking with Toronto, Tellez can be a source of some significant salary relief. He’s not just a cheap bat you hope to get a couple of singles out of and maybe a run. He has some legitimate pop and he also bats from the left side of the plate, which is where Junis has historically struggled. Last season, Junis allowed a .433 wOBA and .277 ISO to LHBs along with a 31.3% HR/FB rate. One big swing of the bat and Tellez returns a tremendous value.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

2B Jed Lowrie | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

The case for Oakland bats has already been made above in the stack section, so with as many home runs as Skubal and that Detroit bullpen is prone to giving up, it only makes sense to go here for my HR call. Lowrie is swinging a hot bat and has already hit a couple of dingers in the A’s last four games. His 94.7 mph average exit velocity over the last two weeks puts him in the 90th percentile of hitters and he’s creating 50% Hard Contact in that span. Get a hold of one tonight, Jed!

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports), and The Welsh's (@IsItTheWelsh) HR Calls for each slate. If you throw it a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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