Top MLB DFS Plays 4/15 | Happy Jackie Robinson Day!

April 15, 2022

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Be sure to subscribe to the LineStar YouTube channel linked below! New video podcast episodes drop Monday-Friday featuring hosts Shannon Sommerville & Tyler Wiemann! Every episode is quick (10-15 min.), informative, & easy to watch.

Before we get into anything else, we first pay homage to the life and legacy of a man who created a lasting impact on the game forever. A man who was a champion for change and broke baseball’s color barrier 75 years ago today. Happy Jackie Robinson Day!

After seeing a little animosity in the chat last night due to some players/teams not performing up to expectations, one more thing I would like to remind some folks of is this: baseball is a volatile sport! There are just so many outcomes we’ll never see coming and there’s not a thing we can do about it! Let’s take Shohei Ohtani’s pitching performance from last night for example. Ohtani was a popular DFS play and was a guy I highlighted in yesterday’s newsletter as well. Across 3.2 IP yesterday, he allowed six hits, two walks, and six earned runs while striking out five. From that performance, he garnered a 14.73 ERA and posted a whopping 1.45 DKFP. However, he also earned a 3.14 xFIP from that game. Reminder: the xFIP stat attempts to remove the luck, randomness, and defensive play from a pitcher’s ERA and is a better indication of how that pitcher actually performed. So don’t kick yourself if you played Ohtani in DFS lineups last night. Sure, you gained huge leverage if you played Rangers bats instead, but Ohtani actually pitched much better than his ERA (and fantasy score) from the game would indicate. If yesterday’s game will cause people to move away from him the next time he’s on the mound, well then it’ll probably be a great time to go right back to him!

Anyway, I’m not trying to get up on a soapbox or anything. I just know people can get discouraged early on in the season when they have an awful DFS night. So remember to practice smart bankroll management and realize that MLB DFS is a true grind with many, many more games yet to be played!

Alright, let me not take up any more of your time with this intro. We have a huge 11-game main slate to dig into this evening as we get set to kick off the weekend so let’s get down to business!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

NYY @ BAL (7:05 ET, 9 O/U): Winds blowing OUT to left at 10-15 mph. Note: They moved the left-field wall back about 27 feet and raised it 13 feet so expect fewer HRs at Camden Yards this season… but the winds today should help counteract those changes.

SF @ CLE (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Small chance for a passing rain shower.

TB @ CWS (7:10 ET, 8 O/U): With some rain in the area, it’s possible they play this game a little wet at times. Likely nothing too serious but this is probably the one forecast to check on closer to lock.

DET @ KC (8:10 ET, 8 O/U): Winds blowing IN from left at 10-15 mph. Pitchers get a slight bump.

CHC @ COL (8:40 ET, 10 O/U): 10 mph winds blowing a bit left to right, a bit in from left. It is a little bit warmed (64 degrees at first pitch) than it was yesterday but these are far from the most ideal Coors Field conditions. A double-digit run total is still being pinned on this game, however. Not really a surprise there.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Carlos Rodon (LHP), SF | $9.8k, FD: $10.1k | @ CLE

It’s still wise to exercise some caution when it comes to spending up on pitchers this early in the season, but Rodon is an enticing high-end option today. The Guardians are white-hot right now after scoring 44 runs over their last four games so many people’s first thought could be “why would I want to target this offense right now?!” Hey, I wouldn’t blame anyone for thinking that! However, Cleveland is enjoying some incredible luck from the baseball gods at the moment with their MLB-leading .359 BABIP! That’s simply an unsustainable batting average on balls in play and is due to regress any moment now. This could happen today against Carlos Rodon who pitched five masterful innings in his season debut against the Marlins six days ago when he struck out 12 (!) hitters on 89 pitches while allowing three hits, two walks, and a single run. In that game, he forced a massive 23.6% swinging strike rate and was simply fooling would-be hitters all day with his slider while throwing a fastball that had an average velocity of 97.1 mph (up nearly two ticks from his average fastball velo last season). There is some nice BvP history here as well -- in 74 PA, Cleveland is hitting just .188 against him. You may also recall that Rodon threw a no-hitter against Cleveland exactly one year ago from yesterday. The Guardians possess a slate-low 3.4 implied run total today and considering Rodon hit that 89 pitch count in his first start, he may be close to being fully stretched out as well.

Brad Keller (RHP), KC | DK: $7k, FD: $9.4k | vs. DET

The FanDuel price is not too appealing here for Keller -- if you’re paying up there, it’s probably better to just find the extra $300 to get up to Dylan Cease or $700 more to get to Rodon. But at a flat $7k on DraftKings, Keller represents some nice potential value against a bad Detroit offense. Keller is not going to do anything on the mound that will blow people away and, more often than not, he’ll probably give up a handful of hits and two or three runs. But he’s been a fairly steady option going back to the end of last season. Across his last 10 MLB starts (58.2 IP), Keller has a 3.04 ERA, 4.04 xFIP, 1.24 WHIP, .292 opp wOBA, and a 24.0% kRate. It’s nothing stellar but those are some pretty decent numbers overall. He’ll see a Detroit offense today whose .194 AVG vs. RHPs (187 PA) is the fourth-lowest batting average in the MLB this season and their .272 wOBA, .127 ISO, and 74 wRC+ are all figures which place them towards the bottom of the league as well. Keller will benefit from those 10-15 mph winds blowing in from left field today and he needed just 69 pitches to get through six full innings in his season debut which came against Cleveland last Saturday. If he can push for around 80-90 pitches today while averaging about a strikeout per inning, his chances of returning a ~20 DKFP performance seem quite solid.

MacKenzie Gore (LHP), SD | DK: $5k, FD: $6.4k | vs. ATL

Padres fans rejoice as the long wait for MacKenzie Gore’s MLB debut is just hours away from being over. Gore, the No. 3 overall pick from the 2017 draft, is the top pitching prospect in the Padres system and he has certainly shown why he is so highly touted by way of his strong minor league results along with a strikeout-ladened spring this year. In 12.0 IP of spring ball, Gore struck out 16 batters and came away with a 0.92 WHIP. And what better way to make your big league debut than to take on the defending World Series champs in front of the home crowd? The 3-5 Braves are off to a slugging start to the 2022 season, though there are many underlying numbers that suggest they’re due for some positive regression (I promise I’m not just trying to cope as a Braves fan). It is a small sample size, but they’ve also been strong against lefty pitchers early on this season: 65 PA, .296 AVG, .363 wOBA, .400 OBP, with just an 18.5% kRate. Given Gore’s strikeout upside combined with his low DFS salaries, he can afford to allow some baserunners and surrender some runs… as long as he is indeed getting those strikeouts. Possibly the biggest concern here is how quick will Padres manager Bob Melvin be to yank Gore off the mound if he does indeed run into more serious trouble? It’s all part of the risk you take by rostering him in lineups tonight. It is worth noting that San Diego heads into tonight as slight -115 favorites. Even though the Braves starting pitcher (Kyle Wright) isn’t great, the fact that the Padres are even just slightly favored shows how much respect the sportsbooks are giving Gore today.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

It took until the later innings for this Dodgers stack to really come through last night but even if they completely bombed, I would be hesitating to go right back to them tonight! Their lineup is just too loaded and some of their hitters are still being pinned with depressed early-season DFS salaries. Vladimir Gutierrez enjoyed some nice success for a large portion of his rookie campaign last season but he really tapered off towards the end of the year and his funk seemed to trickle into the spring as well as his first start this season. Over his last seven MLB starts (25.1 IP), Gutierrez has come away with an 8.53 ERA, 5.42 xFIP, 1.93 WHIP, and 15.1% kRate while allowing a .343 AVG, .428 wOBA, and 2.10 HR/9. In 9.1 IP in the spring, he gave up 12 hits, which included three home runs, to go with a pair of walks which led to nine earned runs and an 8.68 ERA. Last night, the Reds actually had this game close thanks to five innings of excellent long relief from Reiver Sanmartin. It was a 3-3 ballgame going into the bottom of the eighth inning before the Cincy bullpen came in and gave up six hits (including a 3-run HR to Will Smith), two walks, and six runs. So even if Vladimir Gutierrez limits the damage during his time on the mound (which is a tall order), these Reds relievers are starting to look like a bottom 10 bullpen that can be taken advantage of in the later innings.

Also, how could you go against the Dodgers on Jackie Robinson day?!

Favorite LAD Bats: Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner | Sneaky Bat: Gavin Lux

New York Yankees vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), BAL

It’s no secret the Yankees have many power-hitting bats within their lineup and that could be on display tonight as they travel to Baltimore to face Jordan Lyles in Camden Yards. This is Lyles’ first year with the Orioles and the journeyman pitcher has been someone we’ve targeted for years when searching for offensive stacks (and home runs!). Going back to 2017 (and not counting the one start this season), Lyles has posted lower than a 4.64 xFIP in only one season, his lowest WHIP in that span was 1.27, and he’s given up at least 1.60 HR/9 in all but one season as well. The Yankees also have a huge .327 AVG against him in 67 plate appearances. Camden Yards is not expected to be the insanely strong hitter’s park that it has been in years past since they moved the left-field wall back around 27 feet (and raised it 13 feet), but reportedly the only hit it affected in Baltimore’s home-opening series against Milwaukee was one Trey Mancini hit to left field that would’ve been a home run in years past. Today there will also be noticeable 10-15 mph winds blowing out to left field that may end up offsetting those changes made to the left outfield wall. Overall, there’s notable upside with the Yankees bats today.

Favorite NYY Bats: Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton | Sneaky Bat: Joey Gallo

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

The Brew Crew has been a little slow out of the gate on offense but they are starting to show some improvement in recent games. Over their last three, they’ve recorded 25 hits and have plated 14 runs. We can expect them to put the bat on the ball quite a bit when they go up against Miles Mikolas, who is the definition of a contact pitcher. In Mikolas’ first game of the season, he threw 77 pitches across 3.2 innings. He forced just a 2.6% swinging strike rate while opposing batters made contact on 94.3% of pitches they swung at. Milwaukee currently has one of the lowest SwStr% and one of the highest Contact% so expect them to get the bat on the ball nearly every swing. Of course, many of those swings will result in groundouts and flyouts but they should be able to mix in quite a few hits as well. The Cardinals do have some quality bullpen arms but, as a whole, they rank out around middle-of-the-pack. With so many stack options on the board today, including another Coors Field match-up that people will still inevitably chase, expect the Brewers to go way under the radar on this slate.

Favorite MIL Bats: Rowdy Tellez, Christian Yelich, Willy Adames | Sneaky Bat: Omar Narvaez

One-Off Bats ☝️

Maximum one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B Vlad Guererro Jr. | DK: $6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. Daulton Jefferies (RHP), OAK

OF Mike Trout | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4k | vs. Mike Bush (RHP), TEX

OF Seiya Suzuki | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

1B/2B/3B Max Muncy | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

OF/3B Kris Bryant | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC

C Mitch Garver | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Reid Detmers (LHP), LAA

OF Marcell Ozuna | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.3k | vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), SD

Bargain Batters 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are projected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Connor Joe | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), CHC

1B Trey Mancini | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), NYY

OF Julio Rodriguez | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Jake Odorizzi (RHP), HOU

2B/SS/OF Gavin Lux | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

OF Cody Bellinger | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

1B/OF Billy McKinney | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Ross Stripling (RHP), TOR

SS Jeremy Pena | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

1B Rowdy Tellez | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

3B/SS Bobby Witt Jr. | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B/2B/3B Max Muncy | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

Lefty bats simply mash Gutierrez so it’s a match-up I’d like to exploit with Max Muncy tonight. Gutierrez has a 2.08 HR/9 Rate against LHBs in his fairly brief MLB career to go along with a .251 ISO and 6.14 xFIP. Muncy blasted 17 HRs off of right-handed pitching at home last season alongside a massive .366 ISO, 162 wRC+, 41.7% Hard Contact, and a 28.8% HR/FB Rate. The Cincinnati bullpen has also allowed six home runs already this season (T-2nd most) so Muncy has a great shot to go yard even if he doesn’t yam one off of Gutierrez in his first couple of trips to the plate.

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the daily Home Run Call (shown below)! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a hitter from the HR calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player hits a home run, you'll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a two-month subscription to LineStar!

Players Props & Bets 💰

Throwing three plus-money bets on the board today!

Miles Mikolas under 3.5 Strikeouts | +112

Getting this prop for Mikolas to throw three strikeouts or fewer at plus money feels like a nice bargain. I delved into much of this same info above when highlighting the Brewers as a sneaky stack today, but even when Mikolas pitches well, he doesn’t rack up many Ks. Since coming to the MLB in 2012, Mikolas has never posted higher than an 18.8% kRate in a single season. In his first start this year, he managed only one strikeout on 77 pitches and 3.2 IP, forcing a mere 2.5% Swinging Strike Rate while contact was made on 94.3% of pitchers which batters swung at. Milwaukee’s 9.3% SwStr% is the third-lowest in the MLB while their 78.5% Contact% is the sixth-highest. After missing the 2020 season, Mikolas only started nine games last season. Including his start this season, Mikolas has recorded more than three strikeouts just twice spanning his last 10 MLB starts.

Parlay: Yankees ML (-200)/Dodgers -1.5 (-125)/Giants ML (-158) | +340

The Yankees (and most teams, for that matter) always seem to play well against the poor Orioles and they’re 24-7 against them in their last 31 meeting in Baltimore -- tonight they’re in a nice match-up with journeyman Jordan Lyles.

The Dodgers are 40-12 in their last 52 home games and 4-1 against Cincinnati in their last five meetings. With Gutierrez on the mound and a shaky bullpen, I don’t expect the Reds to keep this game close for as long as they did last night.

The Guardians bats have been scorching lately but their MLB-high .359 BABIP is unsustainable so the regression will hit soon. Perhaps that happens tonight as they’ll have to deal with Carlos Rodon who struck out 12 hitters on 89 pitches (5.0 IP) in his season debut. He likely pitches even deeper into this game, the Guardians hitters are batting .188 against Rodon in 74 PA, and the Giants are 9-1 against Cleveland in their last 10 meetings.

Max Muncy (+300) and Aaron Judge (+350) to Both Hit a Home Run | +1700

Here's a longshot bet but feel free to consider each guy to homer as separate bets as well. Feel free to read above in my “Home Run Call of the Day” to see why Muncy is on my radar to go yard. As for Judge, he has played 31 games at Camden Yards since 2017 and has totaled 14 home runs in that time to go with a .402 ISO and 49.3% Hard Contact Rate. Jordan Lyles has surrendered his fair share of home runs during his time in the majors and even with the left-field wall at Camden Yards being pushed back, it should not be a problem for Judge. Especially since he’ll have those 10-15 mph winds blowing out to left field helping him out. Judge also has 13 hard hit (95+ mph exit velo) baseballs this season, the fourth-most in the MLB.

NOTE: Aaron Judge is not in the starting lineup

LineStar subscribers have access to the new Player Props page (also on the app). It's an easy way to view odds for games and player props while also helping you to find out which sportsbook has the most favorable odds posted for any bet you'd like to place!

Best of luck today, everyone!