By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Preview & Strategy Guide ⚾

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Wednesday presents us with a 7-gamer on the main slate which, in all likelihood, will probably be chopped down to a 6-game slate due to bad weather in Baltimore. The game hasn’t been PPD yet at the time of this writing, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they call it while I’m in the middle of this article. So, for the purposes of this newsletter, I’m just going to go ahead and assume we won’t be able to use any Mariners or Orioles. It’s a bit of a shame since that game carried the highest total on the slate and both offenses were in pretty appealing spots. But we’ll take what we can get, right? At the end of the day, we still get to watch some baseball and (hopefully) win some cashola. Let’s get into it!

Main slate match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

SEA @ BAL: All signs pointing to a complete washout. Not 100% confirmed, however so don't completely rule this game out.

PHI @ NYM: Rain hopefully stays south but it’s not out of the realm of possibilities that some of it makes it up over the stadium.

MIA @ ATL: Isolated showers could make their way into Atlanta. Wouldn’t rule out a delay but stilla solid chance they play without any issues.

CLE @ CWS: Chilly with 8 mph winds blowing out to center. 

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Dustin May (RHP) | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9k | vs. COL

At this point, it is just too easy to pick on the Rockies and we probably need to keep doing it until they show any life with their bats (specifically, outside of Coors Field). After getting shutout and mustering just two hits last night against Trevor Bauer & Co., the Rockies have now averaged one run in each of their four road games. Their 53 wRC+ versus RHPs ranks 29th, ahead of only the Cubs. As a team, they’re hitting under the Mendoza Line against righties as well (.196) while striking out 24.4% of the time. May was allowed to go 85 pitches in his first start of the year against Oakland. He threw a brilliant game (6.0 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 0 ER, 8 K, 1 W, 1 QS) and earned 31.1 DKFP/52 FDFP. The pitch count was encouraging since he didn’t exceed 88 pitches in any game last season. I’m on board with May regardless, but if manager Dave Roberts extends the leash to about 95 pitches, we could see another ceiling game out of him tonight. The Dodgers also check in as the heaviest favorites on the slate (-255 ML). 

Charlie Morton (RHP) | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. MIA

I believe we can agree that Miami played well above their head last night and they’re a decent bet to cool off immediately tonight against Morton. On the young season, they’re in the bottom third of several key offensive rankings vs. RHPs: .278 wOBA (23rd), .098 ISO (29th), 25.9% kRate (10th highest), and 78 wRC+ (23rd). As you can probably tell from the sub-.100 team ISO, they’re not making much hard contact either (29% Hard Contact Rate vs. RHPs ranks 28th). Through his two starts (11.0 IP), Morton has posted a strong 2.85 xFIP while forcing 50% ground balls and 27.6% Hard Contact along with a 26.7% kRate. After a frustrating loss last night, expect Morton and the Braves offense to come out a little ticked off and ready to walk away with a win tonight. Their -240 moneyline odds trail only the Dodgers tonight.

David Peterson (LHP) | DK: $7.1k, FD: $6.4k | vs. PHI

Yeah, I don’t feel great about it either but there aren’t a ton of appealing value arms on this slate and Peterson at least flashed some respectable upside in his 2020 rookie season. Peterson went just four innings on 78 pitches and gave up seven hits (two HRs) and six earned runs against this same Phillies squad a week ago. But, in general, across their 11 games, Philadelphia has not fared all that well against lefties. In 108 at-bats against LHPs, PHI is batting .231 (23rd) with a .312 wOBA (21st) and 93 wRC+ (22nd) while striking out 30.4% of the time (5th most). “Small sample size” yadda, yadda, yadda, but we work with what we’ve got right now. If the Phillies keep up the high kRate against southpaws, Peterson could realistically hit the 20 DKFP/35 FDFP threshold. Peterson = salary relief + leverage.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: Are people tired of getting burned by the Astros yet? If not, a few of those bats should carry moderately high ownership in a strong match-up against Michael Fulmer. Also, despite a sneaky tough spot versus Jon Gray, you can never really look at playing pieces from the Dodgers order and feel all too bad about it. Despite it not making a ton of sense from a logistical standpoint, Gray has actually pitched a bit worse on the road (away from Coors Field) throughout his career.

Atlanta Braves vs. Nick Neidert (RHP), MIA

Neidert is actually from the Atlanta area, so he may have a little hometown narrative brewing for him. But ultimately, he’s an unestablished 24 y/o pitcher who has 12.2 innings of MLB experience under his belt. After a sluggish start to the season, over the last week, Atlanta is 5th versus RHPs with a .340 wOBA and ranks 8th with a 110 wRC+. The two superstars in Freddie Freeman and Ronald Acuna Jr. have not missed a beat from last season, but last night key pieces of that order like Marcell Ozuna and Ozzie Albies showed some offensive prowess. If they keep riding that confidence, expect some good things out of this Braves squad tonight.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kohei Arihara (RHP), TEX

The Rays also draw a match-up against a super inexperienced arm in the rookie Kohei Arihara, who has made two starts this season, going 9.0 innings and allowing 11 hits and five earned runs in that stretch while tallying just two strikeouts. Arihara has gone just 73 pitches in each of his first two starts, so he likely won’t hit a very high pitch count unless he just comes out DEALING. He’ll be backed by a Rangers bullpen that has posted a poor 1.47 WHIP, 5.36 ERA, and given up 1.85 HR/9 in the early goings of the season.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Detroit Tigers vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP), HOU

The pop that these Tiger bats are showing is probably unsustainable, but on the year they rank as a top 10 offense versus RHPs. Most noticeably, they check in 3rd in the league, behind the Red Sox and Dodgers, with a .222 ISO against righties. No disrespect to Plesac, May, Rodon, or Wheeler, but you could make a case that McCullers is the most talented pitcher on this slate so the Tigers could get shut down tonight. Their bats are hot in Houston right now though, so you should at least keep them on your radar in GPPs.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

A little pressed for time today, so I’m going going to simply list off a few different guys in good spots that make sense as one-offs or pieces to a mini-stack.

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Nick Neidert (RHP), MIA

OF Randy Arozarena | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Kohei Arihara (RHP), TEX

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Michael Fulmer (RHP), DET

3B Alec Bohm | DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

OF Nomar Mazara | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP), HOU

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

SS Carlos Correa | DK: $5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Michael Fulmer (RHP), DET

Correa has no issues producing power versus righties. Over his last 20 games versus RHPs, he’s knocked out five homers in 48 plate appearances while producing a .378 ISO and accounting for a 188 wRC+. He’s barreled four balls vs. RHPs in the last two weeks (top 90%) while averaging a 95.4 mph exit velo (also top 90%). Let’s see if these Houston bats wake up and hit some dingers out tonight (otherwise, someone go grab the trash can).

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports), and The Welsh's (@IsItTheWelsh) HR Calls for each slate. If you throw it a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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