Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

🔊 4/13 | "On Deck" Weekend Podcast w/ Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

Sunday at the Masters. One of the best days in sports of the year. We’ve still got some baseball to keep an eye on today but golf is going to take priority on my TV this morning (and by TV I mean phone because I’m sure my daughter will be watching cartoons – someday I’ll get her to watch golf and baseball with me). Today, we have almost the exact opposite of what we had yesterday. Yesterday’s slate was full of ugly pitching, a bunch of opportunities to stack, and high totals. Today, we have several top tier (or at the very least above average) pitchers on the mound and much lower totals. Here are the Vegas lines for today’s games:

Notably, the game between Baltimore and Boston is the only one to crack a double-digit total. As far as weather goes, it seems to be a forgone conclusion at this point that this will be a seven game slate and the game between the Angels and Cubs will get snowed out (update: it's been postponed). It’s a shame because 30 degree weather and the wind blowing in at Wrigley still couldn’t keep me from stacking against Tyler Chatwood. Outside of that, I don’t see a ton of weather to be concerned with. Washington is currently showing 12 mile per hour winds blowing out, which could be a slight boost to hitters. The total in that game, however, is just 7.5 with Taillon and Scherzer on the hill. Not much help there. 

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they're released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Jose Berrios, MIN vs. DET | DK: $9.9K, FD: $10K

It’s not fun to write about Max Scherzer. He’s so obvious. “Max Scherzer is the best pitcher on the board today. He had an elite 2.71 SIERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 34.8% strikeout rate last season.” There. I’m done. What else is there to say? He’s dominant. You even get him at a slight discount today, as it’s rare to see him under $11K on DraftKings. If you’ve played DFS for any amount of time, you don’t need me to tell you about Scherzer. Let’s talk about Jose Berrios instead, who makes for a great pivot play today with a shot to match Scherzer. I love this match up for Berrios. I also love the fact that he’s at home where he’s historically performed much better. We’ll start with his opponent. Detroit is 27th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching at just 56 ahead of only the lowly Marlins, Giants, and Rockies right now. They have a .254 wOBA, .106 ISO, and just a .568 OPS. Even better, they are striking out 27.2% of the time against right-handing pitching so far this season. That’s the fourth highest rate in the league right now. Berrios had a solid 3.80 SIERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 25.3% strikeout rate in 192.1 innings last season. Opposing left-handed batters had only a .299 wOBA against him and right-handed hitters were slightly worse at .283. At home, like he’ll be today, he was outstanding with a 3.27 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, and 27.8% strikeout rate. On the road, which we don’t need to worry about today but it’s still interesting to point out, those numbers change drastically to a 4.67 xFIP, 1.36 WHIP, and a 22.6% strikeout rate. Everything lines up for Berrios to have monster upside today. Meanwhile, Scherzer, while still the top pitcher on my board, faces a Pirates team that is known for their plate discipline and strikeout significantly less than the Tigers do. You can at least make the argument that this could level the playing field a bit between the two of them. I’ll have Scherzer in cash but I’ll have plenty of Berrios in tournaments today.

David Price, BOS vs. BAL | DK: $9.2K, FD: $8.9K

The Red Sox rotation is on the list of early season surprises. Do we over react to small samples? At what point do we start to worry they might not turn this around? My opinion on that is it’s still way too early. There’s nothing to suggest their issues will be long term. Today, we have David Price on the hill. He wrapped up 2018 with a 3.82 SIERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 24% strikeout rate. Opposing left-handed batters had just a .296 wOBA against him and opposing right-handed batters didn’t do much better with a .301 wOBA. Even more encouraging is Price was dominant against the Orioles last season. In three starts, he went 3-0 with a 2.46 ERA (2.96 xFIP). In one of those starts he had a complete game that took him just 90 pitches to get through – one of his more impressive starts all of last season. He had 8, 10, and 6 strikeouts against 0, 0, and 3 walks in those starts as well. The Orioles struggles against left-handed pitching were well documented last season and seem to be carrying over to this year as well. They have a 25.9% strikeout rate and only a .299 wOBA and .138 ISO this season. This should be a good opportunity for Price to get his season on track, at home, against a weak offense that he’s dominated in recent seasons. Price and the Red Sox are the largest favorite on the board today at -260.  

Jakob Junis, KC vs CLE | DK: $7.3K, FD: $8.4K

Did you see what Homer Freaking Bailey did to this lineup last night? In case you missed it: Seven innings, two hits, six strikeouts, and zero earned runs. Today, we have a slightly more expensive (especially on FanDuel) but also more talented pitcher in Jakob Junis going into the same match up. I really don’t see how he’s not on our list of priorities with the way Cleveland is playing right now. They have a .270 wOBA, and .143 ISO against right-handed pitching and they are tied for the fourth highest strikeout rate at 27.2%. Junis had far from perfect numbers last season but there is reason to be optimistic. He finished with a 3.98 SIERA, 21.7% strikeout rate, and only 5.7% walks. Even more impressive about Junis was how he finished last season. The first half of the year he was awful. In 17 starts prior to the All-Star break he went 5-10 with a 4.59 xFIP, 1.29 WHIP, and 20.9% strikeouts. He allowed 2.12 HR/9 and was one of my favorite pitchers to stack against. In the second half of the season, he seemed to flip a switch. He went 4-2 in 13 starts with a 3.51 xFIP, 1.25 WHIP, and 22.7% strikeouts. More importantly, he cut his HR/9 down to just 0.96 and increased his ground ball rate to 45.5%. Whatever he figured out after the All-Star break last year he’s seemed to have carried over to this season as he’s 1-1 in his first three starts with a 3.33 xFIP. His WHIP is a bit scary at 1.60 but realize it’s a small sample right now. He’s also, at least for now, showing more upside with a 28.2% strikeout rate. After witnessing Homer Bailey mania last night, Junis is likely my SP2 in cash on DraftKings today and will definitely be mixed in for tournaments as well. Just know he’s likely to be popular. 

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses. I only mention this because I’ve seen some frustration in chat with people who seem like they may be forcing in large team stacks almost exclusively.

Minnesota Twins vs. Jordan Zimmermann (RHP – Detroit Tigers)

The first place Minnesota Twins are swinging the bat well right now, particularly against right-handed pitching. They are 8th in wRC+ at 112, 8th in wOBA with a .342, 4th in ISO at .214, and 25th in strikeout rate at 20.9%. It’s early but Jordan Zimmermann is due for some pretty serious regression after his first three games. His 2.50 ERA and 0.78 WHIP look impressive at first glance but the .170 BABIP tells us he’s been extremely lucky so far and the 4.89 xFIP suggests that luck is about to run out. He hasn’t faced the toughest opponents yet either, with games against the Blue Jays, the Indians, and a very banged up Yankees team. If we take a look at Zimmermann’s splits from last season they are pretty even to both sides of the plate, so I don’t see a need to prioritize one side over the other. Polanco (.368 wOBA), Cruz (.350 wOBA, .237 ISO, Rosario (.352 wOBA, .219 ISO), and Cron (.328 wOBA, .236 ISO) are all standing out as strong options with a lot of success against right-handed pitching last season. After them, Schoop has power upside with a .212 ISO and Astudillo has a strong .378 wOBA assuming he makes the lineup.  

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Marco Stroman (RHP – Toronto Blue Jays)

As I said earlier, there are really not a lot of teams I’m excited to stack today. This slate is shaping up to be more of a mini-stack and one-off lineup build in my opinion. There’s plenty of bats out there in good spots but I’m not seeing the must have stacks like the Braves were last night. The Rays are a team you could look at. Stroman is a pretty average pitcher. Not someone I’m going out of my way to attack on a regular basis but not someone I’m scared to roster bats again either. He had a 4.04 SIERA last season but a very high 1.48 WHIP and a low 17.3% strikeout rate. The SIERA isn’t terrible but that high WHIP and low strikeout rate make him an appealing option to attack with some bats. Pham (.352 wOBA, .193 ISO), Diaz (.370 wOBA), Lowe (.344 wOBA, .196 ISO), Choi (.384 wOBA, .256 ISO), and Garcia (.204 ISO) all showed an ability to hit right-handed pitching last season. Austin Meadows didn’t have great numbers last year but he’s off to a hot start this year and should be in consideration at the top of that lineup. Tampa Bay also gets a park boost today being on the road away from the very pitcher friendly Tropicana Field and getting a chance to play in the more hitter friendly Rogers Centre in Toronto.  

Boston Red Sox vs. John Means/Bullpen (Baltimore Orioles)

Okay, I take it back. This might be the one must have stack of the day. Struggling team or not, Vegas wants nothing to do with the rookie left-handed pitcher John Means today and everything to do with the Boston bats. The Red Sox have a massive 5.7 implied run total today, nobody else on the slate is higher than five. Boston was well-known in the DFS community last season for their issues with left-handed pitching. This season they are starting off much better with a .340 wOBA, .173 ISO, and only 16.3% strikeouts. Means made one major league appearance last season and spent most of the year in Double and Triple-A. He was 6-5 in 19 starts in Triple-A with a comfortable 3.89 xFIP. He had below average 18.8% strikeouts which is a bit concerning against minor league competition. He started in the bullpen for Baltimore this year before making a spot start on April 9th but he’s yet to go past 3.1 innings, which means this is likely to be a bullpen game for the Orioles. Since the Boston bats are likely to only get one shot at Means, I wouldn’t necessarily prioritize right-handed bats versus left-handed bats based on splits. With an implied run total approaching six, I’m comfortable saying this entire lineup is firmly in play. So prioritize how you see fit based on your lineup needs.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Luke Voit (DK: $4.3K, FD: $4.3K) | 1B | CWS @ NYY

Voit is picking up right where he left off last season as a top 5% hitter against left-handing pitching with 2.47 fantasy points per plate appearance in the first couple of weeks of the season. He finished last season with 2.55 FP/PA against left-handed pitching to go along with his .744 wOBA+ISO. His hard contact rate was through the roof at 47.4%. The Yankees have a solid implied team total today of 4.7, so you’re going to want a piece of this offense. Voit is reasonably priced in the heart of that order.

Brandon Lowe (DK: $3.9K, FD: $3.5K) | 2B | TBR @ TOR

Second base is always a challenging position to fill but Brandon Lowe is going to make it easy on us today. I already highlighted that I like the Rays in this matchup and Lowe is one of the key pieces. In 2018 he had a .344 wOBA and .196 ISO against right-handed pitching. In the early going this year he’s a top 10% hitter against righties with 2.11 FP/PA and has four barreled balls in the past two weeks, good for the top 90th percentile. He has two games over 20 fantasy points (one over 30) in his last four games and is currently in the midst of an eleven game fantasy point streak.  

Juan Soto (DK: $4.6K, FD: $3.9K) | OF | WAS vs. PIT

Jameson Taillon has pretty drastic splits between left and right-handed batters. He’s borderline elite against righties with a 2.86 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, 26% strikeouts and just 2.7% walks. Against lefties, however, we get a much different story. 4.29 xFIP, 1.42 WHIP, an average 20% strikeout rate and 8.6% walks. This puts Soto in a good spot today to take advantage. Over his last 150 games he has 2.14 FP/PA and a .633 wOBA+ISO against right-handed pitching. They are also expecting double-digit winds blowing out in this game so he might have a little help.

Best of luck today! Don't forget to give the LineStar "On Deck" Podcast a listen with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney. A link is posted at the top of today's article.

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