Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

We have officially made it one week into the season and it’s time to get locked in for yet another fun evening of MLB DFS!

Note: The FanDuel main slate is including the WSH @ PIT and PHI @ MIA games, which will begin at 6:35 ET/6:40 ET. For this newsletter, the six mutually shared games between the DK and FD main slates will be the primary focus.

A modestly sized but intriguing six-pack worth of games will land on the docket today. I’m digging the balanced feel of these games and match-ups -- whose to say it ultimately plays out this way but the preliminary vibes make it seem like there is some nice equilibrium between viable pitching options and strong hitting/stack options. And of course, I must mention the fact that we have Coors Field back on the menu. Ahh, good ol’ Coors slates… something I have a love/hate relationship with for sure.

But we’re set for another “EZ” day (I hope), so let’s dive into the action!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

TOR @ NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Scattered showers move in right around the time this game is set to begin. The two most likely outcomes are: 1) They start on time and just play through some light rain. 2) A late start or in-game delay happens if some heavier stuff rolls over the ballpark. The risk of postponement, while not zero, doesn’t seem likely. Swirling 15 mph winds throughout the day in New York but they are currently projected to be blowing OUT to right field for much of the game (especially if it starts late). So, we probably need to downgrade pitchers due to both the winds blowing out and the risk of an in-game delay.

Note: As always, the forecast can change (for better or for worse) between the time I’m writing this and the time the game gets set to start. That SEA @ CWS game yesterday seemed like it had little chance of playing earlier in the day but they were able to get all nine innings in once it was all said and done.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9k | @ SD

Now that we’re hitting the second cycle through pitching rotations, it’ll be interesting to see what pitch counts get up to for the more veteran arms. Morton threw 5.1 rock-solid innings in his season debut last Friday against the Reds and hit a pitch count of 78. I believe we can pretty safely assume he’ll venture towards the mid-to-upper 80s in this second start. If that is the case, I’m fairly comfortable paying these DFS salaries for him. The Padres take the field at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park for their 2022 home opener. We’re still working with small sample sizes, but the 191 plate appearances the Padres have had versus RHPs this season are the fifth-most in the MLB. In that time, they’re hitting .240 with a .297 wOBA, .084 ISO, and 90 wRC+ while posting a 24.6% kRate. So the early Padres offensive numbers suggest this may be a spot where he could find success. When he pitched on the road last year, Morton held hitters to a .185 AVG and .253 wOBA while accounting for a 1.03 WHIP, 27.7% kRate,0.41 HR/9, and 3.06 ERA. Not a bad option if you’re spending up at the pitcher position this evening.

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $7.9k, FD: $10.8k | @ TEX

Ohtani is more viable on DraftKings, where he is the fourth-most expensive option and $1,800 cheaper than Buehler, as opposed to FanDuel where Ohtani is the priciest pitcher on the slate. I recall this being ‘a thing’ last year as well -- DK was very slow to bring Ohtani’s salary along (when he was pitching) while FD jacked his price up pretty much from the get-go. Anyhow, he’s still a viable option on FD considering his strikeout upside gives him the potential to end the slate as the highest-scoring fantasy pitcher… it’s just much easier to get him into lineups on DK and still have plenty of salary left over to spend on more quality bats.

Ohtani wasted no time showing off his electric stuff as a pitcher when he faced a strong Astros offense last Thursday. In that game, he struck out nine hitters across 4.2 innings on 80 pitches while allowing only four hits, one walk, and one run -- good for 24 DKFP/38 FDFP. His average fastball velocity was at 98.3 mph that game -- up from 95.7 mph in 2021. His other pitches, the slider, curveball, and splitter all seem to have seen significant upticks in velocity as well and he ended up forcing a 15.0% Swinging Strike Rate and a massive 38.8% CSW% (called + swinging strike %). All this against a Houston team that had the second-lowest kRate against RHPs last season (20.0%). The Rangers have a much more threatening group of one thru four hitters this season between C. Seager, M. Semien, M. Garver, and B. Miller and they’ve only struck out 16.3% of the time in 147 PA vs. RHPs this season… but if Ohtani is bringing that same sort of heat he had in his season debut, he’s going to continue to land firmly on the DFS radar. In 43 PA against the current Rangers roster, Ohtani has held them to a .189 AVG/.279 wOBA alongside a 27.9% kRate.

Justin Steele (LHP), CHC | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.5k | @ COL

The risk here is about as obvious as it gets so this is not a play for the faint of heart. Not only is Steele an unproven pitcher at the MLB level but he’ll be stepping on the mound at Coors Field today. Unless it’s like a Jacob deGrom or Corbin Burnes caliber ace playing there, hardly anyone plays Coors Field pitchers in their DFS lineups so ownership is always going to be on the lower end. But it’s also worth noting that Coors Field isn’t exactly the hitter’s paradise that it will become once the weather warms up. It’s still a great hitter’s park, but the gametime temperatures will be in the 50s today and in the three-game series against the Dodgers (at Coors), each game averaged only 8.7 runs/gm. Any pitcher could still get rocked in this game, but just pointing those things out.

Steele pitched pretty well in the spring and transferred that over into his first regular season start last Saturday when he threw five shutout innings (77 pitches) against the Brewers while allowing four hits, one walk, and posted five strikeouts. In 62 MLB innings pitched, Steeled has also kept the ball on the ground with a 50.9% GB% while allowing only 27.8% Hard Contact. He’s still given up his fair share of home runs (1.74 HR/9) but those groundballs and limited hard contact qualities should help him out in this ballpark. The bad news is that, in 87 PA versus LHPs (3rd most in MLB), the Rockies have come away with a .320 AVG, .390 wOBA, .407 OBP, and 145 wRC+ so southpaws have run into some trouble against this lineup. Only go to Steele in your riskiest of GPP entries, but it’ll be one way to gain some leverage on this slate.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks 🥞⬆️

Some of the more obvious teams to give stack consideration to based off of appealing match-ups and implied Vegas run totals include:

Chicago Cubs vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Favorite Bats: Seiya Suzuki, Willson Contreras, Frank Schwindel | Sneaky Bat: Nick Madrigal

Colorado Rockies vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

Favorite Bats: Connor Joe, Kris Bryant, CJ Cron | Sneaky Bat: Randal Grichuk

Other Stacks to Consider

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Luis Cessa (RHP), CIN

Pitching Note: Cessa is serving as the opener and is expected to pitch only one or two innings. LHP Reiver Sanmartin is projected to operate as the “long reliever” following Cessa, but this is not confirmed.

The Dodgers will be playing in their home opener this evening where, as a team in 2021, they averaged over five runs per game and posted a 117 wRC+ with a league-leading .217 ISO. Considering how loaded this Dodgers lineup is combined with the fact that they opened with a series at Coors Field, it was a bit of a slow start for this offense. But they’re coming off of back-to-back seven-run games against the Twins and got four home runs yesterday off the bats of Barnes, Muncy, Bellinger, and Lux. Luis Cessa is a fairly solid option to be utilized as an opener and he probably does well to keep the Dodgers bats in check over the first inning or two. But Reiver Sanmartin is expected to be the long reliever and he’s an inexperienced pitcher looking to play in just his third ever MLB game. He pitched well in his two starts last season, but those were both against a bad Pirates team. He lasted just 2.1 innings in his 2022 debut, which came against the Braves last Friday, where he gave up four hits, walked five batters, and allowed five runs. If Sanmartin continues to have control issues, this Dodgers lineup could jump all over him. Once Sanmartin is retired, a less-than-stellar Reds bullpen will be tasked with eating up the remaining innings.

Favorite Bats: Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner| Sneaky Bat: Will Smith

Los Angeles Angels vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

We go with the other LA team tonight with the Angels hitting the road for the first time this season down in Texas. This Angels team was not a good match-up for Dunning last season -- in three starts (14.0 IP) against them, he came away with a 7.71 ERA and 1.57 WHIP while allowing a .291 AVG/.353 wOBA. Now his 3.61 xFIP across those three games shows he got quite unlucky and pitched better than what that ERA may show. But Dunning was trending in the wrong direction to close out 2021 and he showed some struggles in spring training (6.2 IP, 2.25 WHIP, 10.80 ERA) which carried over into his first start this year against Toronto (5.0 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 3 ER). Since August 20th of last season, Dunning’s 24.0 IP have resulted in a 6.65 ERA, 4.76 xFIP, 1.65 WHIP, 2.0 HR/9. He’s not forcing many swings and misses at all and Toronto managed to create contact on 81.8% of his pitches last Saturday. Dunning will be followed up by a fairly average bullpen. One downside of this Angels stack is the fact that we won’t be able to add Shohei Ohtani into lineups as a hitting option since he’s also on the mound today. Bit of a bummer there but that may drive down ownership even lower on this LAA stack.

Favorite Bats: Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Jared Walsh | Sneaky Bat: Jack Mayfield

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Detroit Tigers vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), KC

It’s both a smaller slate and a Coors slate so you won’t struggle to find lower-owned stacks since so much attention will be placed on Cubs/Rockies bats. With that said, the Tigers should be a major afterthought today. They face off with starter Zack Greinke who is pitching in his age 38 season. Greinke may not be a guy you want in DFS lineups, but he was solid in the opener against Cleveland where he allowed a single run across 5.1 IP (84 pitches) on five hits and one walk while only striking out one hitter. At this point, he leans on plate control instead of velocity and just looks to eat through innings while racking up groundouts and flyouts. But really, Greinke is not the main point of posting this. What could make the Detroit Tigers come through as a profitable stack is if they’re able to get past Greinke and get to the Royals bullpen with a decent amount of innings remaining. They are due for some positive regression, but the KC bullpen has put up some awful numbers early on: 6.94 ERA, .317 AVG, 1.76 WHIP. The Tigers continue to be one of the less-exciting offenses in baseball and they could easily crash and burn today, especially if Greinke can pitch deep into the game. But if you want some <5% owned bats with some level of upside on a smaller slate, you can likely find them here.

Favorite Bats: Austin Meadows, Akil Baddoo, Jeimer Candelario | Sneaky Bat: I mean, pretty much every one of them, but we’ll go with Spencer Torkelson

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

OF Seiya Suzuki | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

1B Matt Olson | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Joe Musgrove (RHP), SD

OF Kris Bryant | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

1B/2B/3B Max Muncy | DK: $4.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Luis Cessa (RHP), CIN

3B Anthony Rendon | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

OF Andrew Benintendi | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

Salary Savers 💸

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

2B/SS Nicky Lopez | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

1B/OF Connor Joe | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

OF Randal Grichuk | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

2B/3B Jack Mayfield | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

OF Cody Bellinger | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Luis Cessa (RHP), CIN

SS/3B Bobby Witt Jr. | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Andrew Benintendi | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

Going to Coors Field would be the easier route but we’ll be getting a little riskier today. Casey Mize will be taking the hill in Kansas City and Benintendi looks to be in a nice spot to go yard against him. Last season, Mize showed some struggles against left-handed hitters, especially when he pitched on the road. Out of the 161 LHBs Mize faced on the road last season, he allowed a .282 AVG, .375 wOBA, and gave up 44.5% Hard Contact and 12 HRs resulting in a 2.87 HR/9 Rate. Mize also gave up a home run in his opening start against the White Sox to switch hitter (batting lefty) Yasmani Grandal. Benintendi is not the quintessential power hitter and he only had 17 homers in 134 games last year. But Benintendi is seeing the ball very well early on this season with a .412 AVG, he homered three days ago, and he has already homered once off of Casey Mize in just 11 plate appearances against him. Some 10 MPH winds blowing out to center field at Kauffman Stadium can't hurt either. This is not my safest home run call up to the point, and Salvador Perez is probably the smart pick to homer in this game, but I like the potential for Benintendi today.

Players Props & Bets 💰

Charlie Morton over 5.5 Strikeouts | -105

Morton got to five Ks in his first start against the Reds despite only forcing a 7.7% Swinging Strike Rate. Considering Morton’s SwStr% was 12.3% last season, he should see some positive regression there. The Padres don’t go out there and swing at everything, but they possess a 24.6% kRate vs. RHPs (191 PA) early on this season. Morton hit a pitch count of 78 in his season debut so the hope here is he can get closer to 90 throws today. If that happens, 6+ Ks feels like a rock-solid outcome.

Zack Greinke under 3.5 Strikeouts | -125

Greinke was of course never a huge strikeout pitcher but his 17.2% kRate from 2021 was his lowest kRate since 2005! Across his 5.2 IP and 84 pitches in his season debut against Cleveland, Greinke recorded only one strikeout with a 4.8% Swinging Strike Rate. Contact was made on a whopping 89.2% of his pitches and that is essentially the sort of pitcher he is at this point. This under 3.5 strikeout prop has hit in seven of Greinke’s last ten starts dating back to last year.

No crazy plus money bets today -- just not finding one I love on this slate just yet. I’m sure I’ll have something like that set up for tomorrow’s massive slate.

Best of luck today, everyone!