Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

🔊 4/13 | "On Deck" Weekend Podcast w/ Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

There is no nice way to say this. Tonight’s main slate is ugly from a pitching standpoint. There is no such thing as safety for cash games. The only cash worthy pitcher on a regular basis is going up against the hottest team in baseball right now. After him, It’s a complete cluster of possibilities but nothing that makes me feel warm and fuzzy. I’ll highlight the arms I believe are most worthy of consideration but just know this is your warning that I don’t feel great about anyone tonight. You can make an argument for and against basically every pitcher on this slate. The good news is, with bad pitching comes lots of opportunity for hitting and runs. I’ll be scaling back my typical bankroll tonight, go all tournaments, prioritize my bats and just spread out my exposure among the pitchers and hope that one or two of them put up a respectable number. Here are the Vegas lines for tonight’s games:

The game to watch weather-wise is down in Texas and it also happens to have a massive 11 O/U. Right now, things don't look pretty, but it's way too early to draw any strong conclusions. You'll need to watch this one and be prepared to make adjustments before lock. We'll talk about this game some more in a bit.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they're released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Justin Verlander, HOU @ SEA | DK: $11.1K, FD: $10.5K

Verlander is, without question, the best pitcher on the board tonight but he’s also facing the hottest offense in baseball right now. I could see this one going either way, so the honest answer is I’ll likely hedge and have shares of both sides of this game. We have Verlander, who finished last season with a 2.63 SIERA, 0.90 WHIP, 35.2% strikeouts and just 4.5% walks. The only flaw in his game is the over 50% fly ball rate which can lead to letting up home runs (28 last season - 10th most). That could be a problem against a Seattle offense currently leading the league in home runs with 37. He's off to a bit of a slower start so far this season going 1-0 in three starts with a 4.24 ERA and 4.09 xFIP. He’s getting hit extremely hard, allowing 54.2% hard contact through three games and he’s given up one home run in each start. The strikeouts are down as well at 25% but still better than most of the other pitchers available for us today. It’s not his best start to a season by any means but we are only three games in and his 2018 numbers suggest he’ll return to form sooner rather than later. With that said, it’s impossible to ignore what Seattle is doing right now. They are the number one offense in baseball with a .909 OPS, .249 ISO, .381 wOBA, and 149 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. They are likely due for some regression in the not too distant future. They have the second highest BABIP at .329 and their 19.7% HR/FB is not sustainable. Like I said, I could see this going either way. I think you need to have at least some shares of Verlander tonight and hope he returns to 2018 form and flirts with double digit strikeouts. But I’ll definitely roll out a few Mariners stacks as well to protect myself in case this incredible hot streak continues for another night.

Adam Wainwright, STL @ CIN | DK: $8.3K, FD: $8.5K

UPDATE: I did not realize until after I wrote the article that this game was being played in Mexico today. The park in Mexico is at an altitude, similar to Coors, so Wainwright is no longer an option for me. I’m going to make an argument for Wainwright here, as I think the DFS community is more likely to gravitate to the shiny new toy that is Merrill Kelly when looking in this price range today. I don’t have a problem with Kelly, and I'll have exposure to him, but I think Wainwright is absolutely worth a look today, especially if he’s going to be the lower owned of the two. He’s unlikely to ever get back to what he once was but he’s shown some promise since he returned to the rotation in September of last season and has carried that over to begin this year as well. Over his last six starts, dating back to September 10th, he’s 2-1 with a 3.39 SIERA, 27.6% strikeouts, a 1.21 WHIP, and only 6% walks. The environment is not ideal today going in one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball. Wainwright also has a pretty poor history in this park if you look at his last several starts while in Cincinnati. But on the plus side, the team that calls this park home is one of the worst offenses at the moment. The Reds have a dismal .613 OPS, .150 ISO, .266 wOBA, and 58 wRC+ against right-handed pitching so far this season. They are also striking out 25.9% of the time which ranks seventh highest in the league right now. This game has a high total, which makes it a bit scary to consider pitchers. But on a slate where there isn't a whole lot to get excited about, Wainwright fits the criteria of someone with the potential to return value despite the low floor.

Homer Bailey, KC vs CLE | DK: $5.8K, FD: $6.6K

I cannot believe that I’m doing this but if you’re looking to pay down at pitcher today, I think you can consider Homer Freaking Bailey as a possible option, especially on two pitcher sites. I’ll be back in a minute I need to go throw up. As I said at the beginning of the article, this is one of those slates where you’re going to prioritize the bats and then mix in some pitchers and hope for the best. At this price point, Bailey will allow you to basically fit whatever bats you want. The Indians are not a scary offense right now. Lindor is still out, Encarnacion and Brantley play for other teams, Jose Ramirez is ice cold, and basically the only bat you need to worry about right now is Carlos Santana. Bailey also has a good chance at the win considering the Indians are spot starting Jefry Rodriguez today in place of the injured Mike Clevinger. I was actually a bit surprised to see that the Indians are favored (though it's by very little) and I'll be watching to see if the line moves at all today. In all seriousness, the man ironically named “Homer” because he gives up so many hasn’t been terrible so far this season. The surface stats are ugly: Two starts, 0-1 and a 9.00 ERA. The more advanced stats, however, show he’s actually pitched a lot better than the results indicate. He has a 3.53 xFIP, 33.3% strikeout rate, and a .415 BABIP against him. The xFIP being significantly lower than the ERA and the well above average BABIP both suggest he’s due for positive regression. The strikeout upside has been impressive, albeit in a limited sample this year. He is allowing 46.2% hard contact, which is terrifying, but he’s faced some tough teams. His last game was against the Mariners. EVERYONE has been blown up by the Mariners this season. Just ask Chris Sale. Can we really hold that against Bailey? At this price point, I think it’s reasonable to expect that he can return value today in this match-up and even if he doesn’t, he’s cheap enough where it won’t kill your lineups. Please LineStar, don’t fire me for this recommendation.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses. I only mention this because I’ve seen some frustration in chat with people who seem like they may be forcing in large team stacks almost exclusively.

Oakland Athletics (Marco Estrada) @ Texas Rangers (Adrian Sampson)

Let's get this one out of the way first. Yes, the weather is looking bad but it's still early. You can't completely cross this game off your list because of bad weather when it has an 11 O/U. If this game plays you're going to want exposure to it. I'm hoping the weather threat continues and scares some people away so we will get this game at lower ownership than we should. I will absolutely have exposure here and will plan my bankroll accordingly in case I end up eating money if it gets postponed. The upside is worth the risk. We’ve got two bad pitchers on the hill facing two offenses with a ton of upside in the most hitter friendly environment in baseball. The only thing missing is the triple digit mid-summer Texas heat that would further add to the potential runs in this game. Even without the extreme heat, however, you should feel very comfortable stacking both sides of this game. On the Oakland side, they will be taking on Adrian Sampson, who has made two relief appearances so far this season and likely isn’t stretched out at this point. He made a few spot starts last season where he posted a 4.65 SIERA. The Rangers bullpen has been pretty poor with a 5.25 xFIP, 1.52 WHIP, and only 18.2% strikeouts. The entire Oakland lineup is in play against what should be a bullpen day for the Rangers. On the other side, we have Marco Estrada pitching for the Athletics. He had a terrible 5.45 SIERA last season with only 16.5% strikeouts. His issue has always been his ridiculous 55.6% fly ball rate which can lead to a lot of home runs. He gave up 29 last season, which was the ninth most in the league. This will be an absolute slug fest if it plays and a game stack here is definitely on the table.

Atlanta Braves vs Jason Vargas (LHP - New York Mets)

I love an opportunity to stack the Braves against a left-handed pitching so I’m going to do exactly that this afternoon. Vargas is interesting, as he flashes some upside from time to time but the overall threat is pretty weak and I have no reason to believe this Atlanta lineup won’t exploit him tonight. He finished last season with a 4.32 SIERA, 1.42 WHIP, and just 19.8% strikeouts. His ground ball and fly ball rates are pretty average across the board. His xFIP against right-handed hitters is lower (4.23 vs RHB and 5.01 against LHB) and his strikeout rate is higher (21.8% vs RHB and 17.7% vs LHB) suggesting some reverse split tendencies. But, he forced just 14.2% soft contact and allowed a .359 wOBA to RHB versus a more average .323 wOBA against left-handed batters last season. Bottom line, I think both sides of the plate here are in play. I have a tendency, as do many, to avoid lefty against lefty match-ups at all costs but I don’t think you need to do that today with guys like Freddie Freeman. He posted a solid .391 wOBA and .221 ISO against left-handed pitching last season. Still, I prefer the right-handed batters such as Acuna (.377 wOBA, .246 ISO vs LHP), Albies (.384 wOBA, .213 ISO vs LHP), Donaldson (.386 wOBA, .241 ISO vs LHP), Camargo (.347 wOBA, .213 ISO vs LHP), and Flowers (.258 ISO, 46.8% HH vs LHP) who all excel against left-handed pitchers.

Kansas City Royals vs Jefry Rodriguez (RHP - Cleveland Indians)

This one will fly under the radar with a total slightly below some other games and a less than ideal hitting environment. Jefry Rodriguez is being called up to make the start today in place of the injured Mike Clevinger. Rodriguez went back and forth between the majors and AAA as a member of the Nationals organization last year. The numbers are pretty brutal. In 52 innings at the major league level last season, he had a 5.89 SIERA, 1.57 WHIP, only 16.6% strikeouts, and 16% walks. You know things are bad when your strikeout rate and walk rate are nearly identical. His splits against lefties in particular stand out as we try to figure out which bats to prioritize against him. He had a 7.37 xFIP, 1.90 WHIP, 10.6% strikeouts, and 19.5% walks against left-handed batters last season. He forced just 15.4% soft contact and opposing lefties had a .381 wOBA against him. That’s, well, not good. Adalberto Mondesi (.917 OPS, .313 ISO, .378 wOBA), Alex Gordon (.977 OPS, .179 ISO, .416 wOBA), and Ryan O’Hearn (1.108 OPS, .393 ISO, .458 wOBA in 2018) stand out as the three guys to focus on and you could add in Whit Merrifield or Jorge Soler as the right-handed bats to pair with the group of lefties. It's never fun to stack the Royals but there is upside here today.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Jose Ramirez (DK: $4.8K, FD: $3.4K) | 3B | CLE @ KC

Despite my interest in Homer Bailey tonight on two pitcher sites like DraftKings, on a one pitcher site like FanDuel where the pricing is softer, I can’t imagine having any exposure to Bailey. That opens up the opportunity to roster Ramirez at this ridiculously low price of just $3.4K today. It’s true, he’s been really bad up to this point in the season with just a .401 OPS, .063 ISO, and .173 wOBA in 52 plate appearances. But if we know anything about baseball, it’s that stats tend to normalize as the sample gets larger. Ramirez, in all likelihood, will be locked into my lineups at this price for the foreseeable future. In his last 150 at-bats against right-handed pitching he has a .698 wOBA+ISO. His numbers won’t be this low for long.

Tyler Flowers (DK: $3.6K, FD: $3.2K) | C | ATL vs NYM

If you’re not going to stack the Braves, suit yourself, but you should at the very least consider Tyler Flowers for your catcher spot. Catcher is not a fun position to fill but it’s usually a good place to save a little money and chase upside. You get exactly that with Flowers who should be in the lineup tonight against the lefty Vargas. He’s very affordable, particularly on DraftKings where you have to play a catcher, and comes with a .439 wOBA, .258 ISO, and 46.8% hard hit rate against left-handed pitching going back to the start of last season.

Cody Bellinger (DK: $5.2K, FD: $5.1K) | 1B/OF | LAD vs MIL

At the top of the pricing food chain tonight we’ll find Cody Bellinger as a solid one-off option or part of a Dodgers stack, which is certainly in play. He’ll take on Zach Davies who has pretty drastic differences in his numbers between left-handed batters and right-handed batters. Against righties, Davies had a respectable 3.77 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP, and 56.6% ground ball rate last season. Against lefties, however, he had an ugly 5.06 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, and only a 36% ground ball rate. He’s also a low strikeout (17.6%) and high contact pitcher, which will make it easier for batters to put up some fantasy points. Even more intriguing is the contact he allows is typically hard contact (39.5%). Bellinger is in a prime spot to put up some points tonight.

Best of luck today! Don't forget to give the LineStar "On Deck" Podcast a listen with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney. A link is posted at the top of today's article.

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