Top MLB DFS Plays 4/13 | A Pitching Paradise 🏝️

April 13, 2021

By: Ryan Humphries | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Subscribe Now 👉 Apple | Google | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher

Shout out to Roland (@ZeroInDenver) for filling in with the newsletter yesterday! I’m glad to get back to this MLB grind! Tuesday drops a fully loaded 10-game main slate on top of our heads… and what a hefty slate she is. It doesn’t take long to notice what dominates the MLB landscape today: pitching. The majority of teams playing on this slate will be at or near the top of their rotations, so there is absolutely no shortage of viable arms to choose from. On the flipside, that will also mean that figuring out which offenses to target will be that much more difficult. Out of the 20 teams playing today, only six currently possess an implied run total at or above 4.5 runs and just one team (Houston) cracks the 5.0 implied run barrier. So… which ace gets shelled today and which ones keep rolling? Who got the most disrespected with their DFS salaries? What sneaky stacks will take down some GPPs? We’ll try to figure as much of that out as we can below!

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

Not a whole lot of impactful weather today, but here are a few minor forecast notes on some of these games…

MIA @ ATL: Temps right around 80 degrees by first pitch. Not a major boost to bats, but it can’t hurt. Warmest game of the slate.

CLE @ CWS: 10 mph winds which will often be blowing right to left, but could shift to blowing out to left field. Game temps will still be about 50 degrees, so that would counteract any helpful winds for batters.

CIN @ SF: Don’t be fooled by the 10-15 mph winds blowing out to left. Oracle Park’s design does a fairly good job at mitigating the impact that winds can have on the game. It doesn't hurt batters, but mainly just pointing this out so it doesn't necessarily sway anyone off of the pitchers in this game.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Trevor Bauer (RHP) | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11k | vs. COL

It’s hard not to like the Dodger ace in this spot today and it would seem that Vegas agrees. You’ll rarely see a team in the MLB favored as heavily as the Dodgers are today. That -340 moneyline is simply massive by baseball standards. The whole pending 'doctored ball' situation aside, Bauer has also simply looked great, registering ten punchouts in both of his starts this season while earning a 35% CSW% (called strikes + whiffs rate) and most recently he was able to throw 110 pitches when he faced off against Oakland. You may recall that Bauer opened up the season against this same Rockies team (at Coors Field) and he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning. Of course, Coors Field’s offensive favoritism reared its head and Colorado was able to get a few hits and runs going, but Bauer flat out dominated this Rockies lineup for 90% of his time on the mound. The 3-7 Rockies are also struggling against just about everybody. Their 65 wRC+ versus RHPs ranks 28th in the league and their series against the Giants this past weekend (first series away from Coors Field), they were only able to plate four runs across three games. Nothing wrong with spending up on Bauer today.

Brandon Woodruff (RHP) | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.8k | vs. CHC

I will say, I’m not a huge fan of rolling out a starting pitcher when he is facing the same team in back-to-back starts. But until these Cubbie bats wake up, I see no reason to shy away from them with a quality pitcher like Woodruff. The Cubs rank dead last in the league with a 48 wRC+ and .236 wOBA versus RHPs. As a reminder, that 48 wRC+ essentially indicates that they are 52% *worse* than the *average* team in the league at creating offense and runs (versus righties). They’re also providing opposing RHPs with plenty of strikeouts -- their 29.6% kRate is the fourth highest in baseball. In 112 plate appearances versus this Cubs roster, Woodruff has held them to a .168 AVG and .235 wOBA while posting a 33.9% kRate. I am hoping that Woodruff’s pitch count gets increased today because he has only thrown 78 and 74 pitches in his two 2021 starts up to this point. You need a guy to throw 90+ (ideally 100+) pitches to get the maximum upside. But, at the same time, it isn't like Woodruff is priced up, especially on DraftKings where that $7,500 salary feels about $500-$1,000 too cheap.

Luis Castillo (RHP) | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.4k | @ SFG

Castillo got demolished on Opening Day but it seems like he was quickly able to hit the reset button seeing as his second start of the season elicited a winning seven inning performance where he allowed zero runs on four hits and K'd up five batters across 81 pitches -- good for 26.8 DKFP/46 FDFP. He will draw a fairly decent match-up against a Giants team that currently possesses a 77 wRC+ versus RHPs (ranks 23rd) along with a high 29.1% kRate (ranks 5th). Castillo has shown really solid strikeout potential throughout his five year career (26.7% kRate, 14.4% SwStr%) so, after notching just five strikeouts over his first two starts in 2021, I think we should see those K numbers climb back up.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: Large slate and no Coors Field… ownership should be spread out pretty evenly today, though I don’t think we can ever completely rule out the Dodgers being potentially a little chalky.

Houston Astros vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), DET

As mentioned in the intro, the Astros are the only team with a 5.0+ implied run total today but due to their struggles the last few games, I don’t foresee them being overly popular. They’re also far from the cheapest offense to stack up, so that may further suppress ownership. The main draw here is their match-up with a lefty pitcher in Matthew Boyd. After a fairly turbulent 2020 season, Boyd has opened up things this year with a couple of strong outings. But on the other side of the coin, Houston has been wreaking havoc on southpaw pitching early on in the season. In 158 at-bats against LHPs, the Astros are hitting .342 with a .413 wOBA, 170 wRC+ while striking out just 15.5% of the time -- all figures that represent the best marks in the league.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

TD Ballpark in Dunedin, FL (aka the temporary home for the Blue Jays) is probably going to be a park that I target hitters in quite a bit. In four games played there already this season, an offense has popped off nicely three times -- the Angels notched seven runs twice, meanwhile, Toronto broke loose for 15 runs in their game on Saturday. Taillon is a quality pitcher and it isn’t like the Blue Jays were scorching the offensive stat sheet yet this season, outside of that 15-run performance. But Toronto has a ton of excellent young talent and just about everyone in the lineup is a legitimate home run threat. Taillon also has fairly even splits to both sides of the plate so you don’t need to worry much about lefty/righty or righty/righty.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Washington Nationals (LHBs) vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), STL

Flaherty has had dominant stretches at times, particularly towards the back half of the 2019 season, and there is a reason why he sits atop the Cardinals pitching rotation. But, as we saw on Opening Day, he is not immune to getting tagged up and he also wasn’t exactly a consistent pitcher in the shortened 2020 season. Flaherty is a righty with traditional splits, so more often than not he is going to give up more production to lefty hitters. The Nationals lefty crew is anchored by All-World outfielder Juan Soto who is a match-up nightmare for most pitchers in the league. Washington also saw a couple of major off-season acquisitions able to make their season debut yesterday after clearing COVID protocols. In their Nats debut, Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber hit 4th and 5th, respectively, behind Soto (3rd) in yesterday's game (also versus a RHP) and all three reached base safely multiple times. I’d expect a similar lineup look today. That will be a lefty trio that will give plenty of RHPs fits this season. Also, I’m not opposed to throwing Trea Turner in with any Nats lefty stack. 

One-Off Hitters ☝️

OF Ronald Acuna Jr. | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIA

You’re paying a premium to get Acuna Jr. into your lineups, but this is a man on a mission right now and he’s obviously worth the elevated price tags. In his last seven games (26 at-bats), Acuna is hitting .577 with a .613 OBP, .742 wOBA, .692 ISO, and 376 wRC+. In that stretch, he has hit four doubles, a triple, and four homers behind a 50% Hard Contact Rate. As an added bonus, he has stolen three bags. Pablo Lopez has had his struggles with Acuna as well. In 17 PA, Acuna is hitting .357 against him which includes a pair of home runs and a couple of stolen bases to boot. 

1B Josh Bell | DK: $3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), STL

I mentioned Bell as a piece to consider above if you roll out a [lefty] Nats stack versus Flaherty tonight. I’ll include him here in the one-off section as well because he is simply mispriced on both sites. It’s understandable why that is the case. He hasn’t been with the team ever since their COVID complications derailed the start of their season. He’s also coming off of a 2020 campaign where he didn’t exactly play up to his standards, hitting just .226 (.286 wOBA) across 57 games and accounting for a 77 wRC+. However, the change of scenery may be just what Bell needed because he had an outstanding spring training where he hit 18-for-47 (.383 AVG) and smacked out six home runs in 18 games. He was also effective in his Nats regular season debut yesterday when he went 1-for-3 with two walks and two runs scored (11 DKFP/15.4 FDFP). Finally, if the Nationals follow the same winning recipe as yesterday, Bell should be hitting out of the clean-up spot.

OF Nomar Mazara | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Jake Odorizzi (RHP), HOU

Not much more than a salary relief play here. Mazara sits at $200 above the minimum price point on both sites and will likely hit 5th, maybe even 4th, in the Tigers lineup tonight. Jake Odorizzi is making his 2021 debut and has pitched just 13.2 innings worth of Major League Baseball since the end of 2019. I’m not expecting Mazara or the Tigers to pop off against Odorizzi, but you won’t need much out of him as a one-off hitter to reel in some value. Mazara also gets a boost from the lefty-on-righty narrative.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

SS Bo Bichette | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

If the Blue Jays stack does end up popping off today, Bichette should be a major contributing factor. He has shown some very respectable power against RHPs in his young career, boasting a .240 ISO and 34.5% Hard Contact Rate. Here’s to him slugging out his third homer of the season. The hitter’s ballpark in Dunedin should only help those chances.

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports), and The Welsh's (@IsItTheWelsh) HR Calls for each slate. If you throw it a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

Let us know if you enjoyed this issue of the Daily Ledger by leaving a 👍 or 👎 at the bottom of the page!

LineStar MLB Freeroll

We host an MLB freeroll on DraftKings every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday!

Check back here tomorrow for the Wednesday freeroll!

1st Place wins $5 towards your lineups or a LineStar T-Shirt

Contact @LineStarApp on Twitter to claim your prize!

Use the image below as your DraftKings avatar to win 2x the prize!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.