Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

Happy hump day to everyone! It’s another busy day across Major League Baseball! Most of the games on today’s schedule have been front-loaded onto the early afternoon window and those games will be well underway by the time you’re reading this. As a result, we are left with a small set of games to look towards this evening.

On DraftKings, the ‘night slate’ covers the four latest games on the schedule, the first of which (OAK @ TB) will have a start time of 6:40 ET, and the latest game on the docket begins only 30 minutes later so all the games will be wrapping up quite early today. Unfortunately, FanDuel has the OAK @ TB game on a single game slate island and placed the other three games on an ‘after hours’ slate. With the game selection discrepancies, today’s newsletter will be more geared towards the DraftKings slate.

The bad news today is we’re likely going to lose one of these four late games with rainy weather threatening the SEA @ CWS match-up. We may end up with a super small three-game mini-slate so I’ll be keeping this newsletter fairly short today! Short slates can provide plenty of entertainment and someone has to win the money from tonight’s DFS contests so hopefully that’ll be us!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

MIL @ BAL (7:05 ET, 8 O/U): Temps in the upper-70s at first pitch with winds blowing out to center at 10 mph. Slight bump to bats.

SEA @ CWS (7:10 ET, 0 O/U): Touched on this in the intro but this is the major trouble spot tonight. Rain is off and on all day in Chicago with greater rain coverage moving in later in the evening. It seems the only way they will get this game in is if they’re able to start on time and play through some lighter rain before any of the heavier stuff moves in. Any kind of late start or in-game delay would be bad news.

I’m not liking their chances of being able to play tonight and I don't really want to waste both my time and your time by highlighting players from a game that has such a high chance of getting postponed (or not completing a full nine innings). So, unfortunately, I’ll have to avoid mentioning any DFS plays from this game. However, if the forecast looks better in the hours leading up to the first pitch, feel free to load up on some Mariners/White Sox players.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.4k | @ BAL

Paying up for pitching remains a sketchy proposition this early in the season but if we’re nixing the players from the SEA @ CWS game due to a possible incoming postponement, that leaves us with six SP options to choose from. Burnes didn’t have the best outing in his 2022 debut when he allowed four hits (one HR), three walks, three runs, and struck out ‘only’ four across five innings against the Cubs. But this is the reigning NL Cy Young winner we’re talking about here -- a guy who dominated in 2021 with a massive 35.6% kRate, 2.43 ERA, and 2.30 xFIP. Burnes also reached 83 pitches in that first outing so he may come close to a full workload in just his second game of the season -- perhaps not 100+ pitches but anything above 90 pitches would be great. He’ll go against an Orioles offense that, in 104 PA against RHPs this season, has struck out 26% of the time while hitting .211 with a .297 wOBA. Also, of note, Camden Yards likely isn’t going to be the great hitter’s park it has been in the past since they moved back the left outfield wall almost 27 feet and raised it an additional 13 feet in the off-season. If you can land on some value bats that you feel confident in, then Burnes should be worth paying up for this evening.

Frankie Montas (RHP), OAK | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8k | @ TB

I expect Shane McClanahan ($7.5k/$8.8k) to be the most popular value pitcher on this slate so I don’t mind pivoting to his counterpart in this game. Montas is another guy who didn’t exactly have a great start to his 2022 campaign when he faced the Phillies last Friday (5.0 IP, 6 H, 1 HR, 1 BB, 5 ER) but he did strike out six while throwing 92 pitches. Montas was a very solid pitcher throughout 2021 and, for what it’s worth, while he come away with an ugly 9.00 ERA following his first start of the year, he also garnered a 2.38 xFIP and 2.57 SIERA while averaging 96.3 mph on his fastball and creating an excellent 16.3% Swinging Strike Rate. Basically what all that says is Montas got unlucky against the Phillies and the underlying numbers show he pitched a much better game than what his ERA and his fantasy score may show. The Rays are hitting RHPs well early on this season (129 PA, .286 AVG, .373 wOBA, 147 wRC+) but they are striking out 24% of the time. Also, in 36 PA against Montas, the Rays lineup is hitting only .176 with a 27.6% kRate. There is some nice potential for Montas this evening and he comes in with very affordable DFS salaries. 

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Reminder: On a small slate, don’t be afraid to roll out some “wraparound stacks” in GPPs if you want to try to set your lineup apart from all the others which will mostly stack up the 1 thru 5 hitters. An example of a 4-man wraparound stack would be rostering the No. 8, 9, 1, 2 hitters in the same lineup.

New York Yankees vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

The Yankees may be a popular stack option on this small slate simply due to how incredibly bad Jose Berrios’ 2022 debut went (0.1 IP, 3 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 ER, 0 K, 34 pitches). Berrios will certainly have better days but today may not be one of those days. Berrios has historically struggled more on the road throughout his career where his ERA is over a run higher than his home ERA. Also, when pitching on the road, his kRate has dipped down to 21.9%, his home run rate rises to 1.46 HR/9, and his WHIP climbs to 1.34. In three career starts and 14.0 IP at the new Yankee Stadium, Berrios has posted a 6.43 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and has allowed a .381 wOBA. The Toronto bullpen currently has a decent 3.81 ERA however they are expected to see some regression based on their league-worst 5.38 xFIP and 4.92 SIERA. The Blue Jays bullpen has also only posted a 13.3% kRate this season, the lowest mark in the MLB.

Favorite Bats: Anthony Rizzo, Joey Gallo, Giancarlo Stanton | Sneaky Bat: Aaron Hicks

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY

We have to take some risks on a small slate so attacking Gerrit Cole with Toronto bats is something we must consider. In Cole’s last 30.1 IP dating back to September 7th of last year, he has not been his usual dominant self. In that time, he has posted a 6.23 ERA, 4.28 xFIP, 1.55 WHIP, 23% kRate, and has allowed a .390 wOBA and 2.1 HR/9. He also didn’t look great in limited spring action -- in 5.1 IP in spring training, he came away with a 6.75 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. The first two games of this series have netted Toronto only three runs, but they do have 15 total hits and they’re simply too talented of a lineup to be held in check for too long.

Favorite Bats: Vlad Guererro Jr., George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez | Sneaky Bat: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland Athletics vs. Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB

The A’s have found a spark with their bats down in Tampa Bay after smacking 21 hits (5 HRs) and plating 21 runs against the Rays over the past two days. Surely, they’re due to come back down to earth but there is some leverage to be had with an Oakland stack against Shane McClanahan, who may carry some lofty ownership tonight. The A’s bats are all affordable with Jed Lowrie and Sean Murphy being the most expensive hitters on DraftKings, both at $3,700. Oakland has not faced a lefty starter yet this season so expect them to roll out a new batting order today. In 39 plate appearances against LHPs thus far in 2022, the A’s are hitting decently well with a .270 AVG, .328 wOBA, and 118 wRC+.

Favorite Bats: Chad Pinder, Jed Lowrie, Elvis Andrus | Sneaky Bat: Sheldon Neuse

One-Off Bats ☝️

SS Wander Franco | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), OAK

OF Andrew McCutchen | DK: $4.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. John Means (LHP), BAL

1B Anthony Rizzo | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF George Springer | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY

2B Jed Lowrie | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Shane McClanahan

Salary Savers 💸

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

SS Elvis Andrus | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB

OF Aaron Hicks | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

1B/OF Trey Mancini | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL

3B/OF Chad Pinder | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Joey Gallo | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

The Yankees are thin on lefty bats so, after getting the day off yesterday, Gallo should be expected back in the lineup with RHP Jose Berrios on the mound. It’s pretty much all or nothing when it comes to Joey Gallo. He’s either going to go 1-for-4 with an HR or 0-for-3 with two strikeouts and a walk. That’s your general range of Joey Gallo outcomes. He has a reasonable chance to get his first home run of the season today against Jose Berrios. All four left-handed hitters that Berrios faced in his brief time on the mound last Friday ended up getting on base, including a home run from lefty Brad Miller. I mentioned the struggles Berrios has had on the road throughout his career. In 2021, Berrios faced 176 LHBs on the road and ended up allowing a .400 wOBA, 1.88 HR/9, and a 39.1% Hard% to those hitters. Gallo has a .277 ISO against righties last season which resulted in 27 HRs. If he can get the bat on the ball, he’s a solid bet to homer in this game.

Update: Gallo batting clean-up today.

Players Props & Bets 💰

Corbin Burnes over 6.5 Strikeouts | -128

While his first start of the season was a little rough, Burnes did come away from his game against the Cubs with a 31.3% CSW% (called + swinging strike percentage) which was only 2.5% lower than his 33.8% CSW% from his Cy Young-winning 2021 season. That was also a season where he averaged 12.61 K/9 and a 35.6% kRate. Burnes also recorded 19 Ks across 14.0 IP in spring training. After reaching 83 pitches last Thursday, it is reasonable to assume he could handle a 90+ pitch workload today and he may very well sniff 100 total pitches. Baltimore’s current 26% kRate versus RHPs is the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the MLB so a fully stretched-out Corbin Burnes (or close to it, at least) should be able to sail past this over 6.5 Ks prop.

Joey Gallo over 3.5 Total Bases from Hits | +405

This is essentially a home run bet for Joey Gallo but you can get slightly better odds on the “over 3.5 bases from hits” bet as opposed to the HR prop, depending on your sportsbook (Gallo +400 to hit a HR on DK & FD sportsbooks, +300 on Bovada). Also, there is a bit of added protection here because maybe he doesn’t go yard but hits a pair of doubles -- not likely, but plausible. If you read above, Gallo is the guy I’m rolling with for my HR call today due to the appealing match-up he has against Jose Berrios, a pitcher who has a track record of struggling on the road against left-handed hitters (1.88 HR/9 in 2021). Gallo took 59 at-bats against RHPs in Yankee Stadium last year and managed to hit five home runs in that time with a .288 ISO. I’ll look for him to hit another four-bagger today.