By: @zeroindenver on LineStar | @zeroindenver on Twitter

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Preview & Strategy Guide ⚾

🔊 4-12 On Deck Podcast w/ Scott Bogman & KC Bubba

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That's right, it's your dude, zeroindenver, covering for Ryan today. Good news for some, bad news for others. For those that know me, I only enter tournaments, and I play a ton of lineups across DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you want intelligent and well-thought out plays, please listen to the podcast. Bogman and Bubba have the insight and stats you need to make sounds lineup decisions. If you want to risk it for the biscuit, ride with me.

At this point of the season, I don't look at stats. I couldn't tell you who's doing well, and who's not. Instead, my method is to build a lot of lineups, look at summed ownership and lineup projections, and then look backward. In other words, let's say I'm getting a lot of a team like Miami in my builds. I work backward and try to determine if they're in a good spot and if they deserve exposure in my portfolio of lineups tonight. Overall, I don't want lineups with low summed projections and ownership, but I also don't want the highest summed ownership in lineups either. I'm trying to play the lineups with the highest probability of doing well tonight.

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

I'm writing this early, so a lot could change between now and lock, but here are games to keep an eye on:

SD@PIT: Forecast calls for rain during the day before first pitch. May not affect the game, but worth watching.

SEA@BAL: Rain throughout the day.

PHI@NYM: Rain all day.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

To me, Glasnow and Cole are obvious and relatively safe choices for tonight. However, I will always prioritize bats in my lineups over pitching so here are a couple of options that I like in tournaments today:

Dane Dunning (RHP) | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.7k | @ TB

He's cheap on DK, and with a strong start in his first start versus Toronto, I would expect him to be a fairly popular choice. Tough matchup against Tampa today, but he looked great in his first start. On 70 pitches, 51 were strikes and he only allowed 3 hits and walked none.

Freddy Peralta (RHP) | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.6k | vs MIL

In early builds, I'm getting a lot of Peralta as well. He's a little more expensive than Dunning on DK but has a better matchup. He had a great start against the Cubs in his first start of the season, allowing only 1 hit and picking up 8 strikeouts.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

New York Yankees vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), TOR

The Yankees are a team with a great matchup that I'm not getting a lot of with the optimizer. A lot of that has to do with their price and the optimizer trying to squeeze in Glasnow and/or Cole. For me, this is the perfect spot to force some Yankee builds into my lineup portfolio

St Louis Cardinals vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

As a general rule, I like to stack against Fedde. He'll toss a few gems each season, but overall, I think he's terrible and he didn't make it two innings in his first start this season. The Cardinals haven't been DFS darlings yet this season, but I think tonight is a good spot for them to break the slate.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Kansas City Royals vs. Alex Cobb (RHP), LAA

Sometimes we get Cy Cobb, and sometimes we get Trash Cobb. Again, I think KC is a stack that goes a little under the radar tonight.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

For one-offs, I really rely on the LineStar tools. My favorite sorters are Alerts (players with the highest alert score rank under "Simple" sorting), Daily Matchup (under "Simple" sorting, Batter Statcast splits (under "Advanced" sorting), and Batter - wOBA + ISO (20 games - under "Advanced " sorting.

Using these sorters, these are 3 players that stand out to me for tonight:

OF Ramon Laureano | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

C Wilson Ramos | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), HOU

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Nolan Arenado | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

Going back to my Cardinals stack, Arenado is my HR call today. It was heartbreaking to see him leave the Rockies, and I'd love to see him rake for the Cardinals.

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Calls for each slate. If you throw it a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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