Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2022 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

Time to strap in for the healthy nine-game main slate heading our way on this fine Tuesday! A normal 7:05 ET/4:05 PT start time is back in play today so a little extra time to prepare and build for this decently-sized slate is never a bad thing.

I’ll hit on it in a bit more detail in the weather section below, but be sure to keep an eye on the LAD @ MIN game with a scheduled first pitch time of 7:40 ET. Some serious potential for wet weather puts the possibility of a postponement firmly on the table there.

Alright, I won’t waste too much time in the intro today; let’s get down to business!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

MIA @ LAA (7:07 ET, 9 O/U): Winds blowing OUT to right at 15 mph.

🚨 LAD @ MIN (7:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): 🚨 Rain chances are at their highest (50+%) just before the game and in the middle/later innings. Even in the early innings, rain chances hover around 40% at the time of this writing. This has postponement written all over it and even if they do decide to play, the risk of the game being called early is very high.

Maybe the forecast manages to improve in the hours leading up to the first pitch but for the purposes of this newsletter, I will avoid mentioning all players from this game.

KC @ STL (7:45 ET, 9 O/U): Fairly stiff 15 mph winds but they’ll be blowing right to left. If they happen to shift towards the outfield at any point, hitters would benefit slightly.

SD @ SF (9:45 ET, 7.5 O/U): 15-20 mph winds blowing OUT to center but, as mentioned yesterday, Oracle Park is designed to mitigate wind impacts. 

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.4k | vs. MIA

If you want to spend up on Yu Darvish ($10.1k/$9.7k) so you can insert what should be a “safer” pitching option into your lineup(s), then I won’t stop ya. But it’s still early enough in the season where saving some salary at pitching makes the most sense, particularly from a GPP perspective. Also, if you’re on FanDuel, Eric Lauer (FD: $7,200) sets up as an appealing option against Baltimore, but at his DraftKings price of $9,100, I’m not too sure how much meat is on that bone given it is his first start of the season.

So let’s shift our focus over to Sandoval who is coming off of a fairly solid 2021 campaign. Based on last season’s stats, Sandoval’s 15.2% Swinging Strike Rate leads all pitchers today by a decent margin (Darvish is next closest at 12.1% SwStr%) and his 31% CSW% leads all pitchers today as well. Overall, Sandoval produced a 25.9% kRate to go along with a respectable 3.62 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, and 1.21 WHIP. He gets to face a Miami Marlins team who, in their first 40 plate appearances against lefty pitching this season, has struck out a league-high 42.5% of the time while hitting just .132 with a .167 wOBA and 12 wRC+. That is a very, very small sample size but the fact is, this is a promising match-up for Patrick Sandoval, especially in terms of strikeout upside.

Alex Cobb (RHP), SF | DK: $7k, FD: $7.6k | vs. SD

These are some very appealing DFS salaries for a guy whose 3.38 xFIP from a season ago leads all pitchers on this slate. He’s more of a ground ball specialist (53.3% GB% in 2021) but he still brings solid strikeout potential to the mound (24.9% kRate in 2021). This game against the Padres easily has the lowest implied total on the slate (7.5 runs) and it’s essentially a pick ‘em with the Giants currently listed as very slight -112 favorites. In 7.1 innings of spring ball, Cobb threw 7.1 innings and allowed only five hits and three walks (1.09 WHIP), one earned run (1.23 ERA), and he struck out nine would-be hitters. If he can get to five innings tonight, I like his chances at pushing for 20 DKFP/35 FDFP.

DraftKings Preferred:

Dakota Hudson (RHP), STL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $9.5k | vs. KC

I don’t believe you need to go after Hudson for $9,500 on FanDuel -- if you’re going for a high-end pitcher, it just makes sense to spend the extra $200 to get up to Darvish. But Hudson is over $3k cheaper over on DraftKings and could be one of the better value options on the board today. After recovering from September 2020 Tommy John surgery, Hudson made his return to the mound towards the very end of last season and appeared in two games, pitching 8.2 innings. He looked quite decent in those brief appearances as he held batters to a .219 AVG and netted a 2.08 ERA. He did only receive five innings of action in spring training and you can be sure the Cardinals will be cautious with his workload. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him land somewhere in the mid-70s in terms of pitch count. In his very first game back from TJ surgery last year her reached 61 pitches across 3.2 innings. He’ll draw a decently strong match-up with a Royals team that has hit only .214 with a .265 wOBA and 67 wRC+ versus RHPs this season (130 PA). They’ve only struck out 15.4% of the time in those plate appearances and Hudson has never really profiled as a strikeout pitcher. But if he can manage a few low pitch count innings while picking up 3-5 Ks along the way, he has room to return value at $6,300 DK.

Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL | DK: $4k, FD: N/A | vs. WAS

With the Braves looking to give Max Fried an extra day off following his opening day start last Thursday, Bryce Elder will be set to make his MLB debut. He posted great numbers in the spring when he pitched 7.2 innings and allowed zero hits and zero runs, though he did walk four batters and struck out four more. Elder is far from an elder himself -- he’s only 22 y/o and was a fifth-round selection in the 2020 draft. Still a relative unknown, his minor league experience is far from extensive but he has impressed enough to the point where the Braves are comfortable giving him a shot in the show. In 25 minor league starts (137.2 IP) ranging from single-A to triple-A, Elder has come away with a 2.75 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 27.7% kRate. He’s the stone minimum for a pitcher on DK at $4,000 and if he can work through three or four innings without getting shelled, there’s some obvious fantasy point per dollar potential to be had. If Elder pitches well enough and the Braves decide they want to try to save their bullpen, he may throw well into the fifth inning (that’s a big “if,” however). Taking him as your SP2 on DK today would unlock ALL THE BATS.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Texas Rangers vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

This game may not be at Coors Field but it still stands out as the only match-up which features a double-digit total today so it’s apparent that we may want to look in this direction when searching for hitters and stacks. While several Rockies bats look appealing as well (some will be listed in the one-off/value bats section), the Rangers stand out as the slightly better team to stack up. They’ll face off with righty Chad Kuhl who posted a lackluster 4.90 xFIP and 1.43 WHIP with the Pittsburgh Pirates last season. He has a really difficult time in his limited spring training action where, in 5.1 IP, he gave up 12 hits and walked four (3.00 WHIP) while allowing eight runs (13.50 ERA). He’s not *that* bad of a pitcher, but it’s an indication that he may not have his best stuff just yet. The Rangers have been productive against RHPs early on this season, posting a .319 wOBA in 110 PA while striking out just 16.4% of the time. It wouldn’t surprise me if they manage to jump on Kuhl fairly early and force the Rockies to go to the bullpen for much of this game. The Rangers head into today with a slate-high 5.4 implied run total.

Favorite Bats: Corey Seager, Brad Miller, Mitch Garver | Sneaky Bat: Nate Lowe

Atlanta Braves vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

The Braves were extremely chalky yesterday and ended up disappointing. The same can be said about this Braves offense in general since they have scored more than three runs in just four of their five games thus far. Perhaps the general public will end up cooling on Atlanta bats and the overall ownership plummets -- seems possible on a fairly large slate like this one. They’ll get a shot at Patrick Corbin who had a turbulent 2021 season where he struggled to find consistency while posting a 5.82 ERA and giving up a bevy of home runs (1.94 HR/9 plus a slate-worst 22.6% HR/FB Rate). In Corbin’s three starts (16.0 IP) against Atlanta last season, he limped away with an 8.44 ERA while allowing a .360 wOBA and four home runs. In 173 PA against the current Braves lineup, Corbin has allowed a .288 AVG, .361 wOBA, and .238 ISO. He did look extremely solid in 9.0 IP in the spring (0.00 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 10 Ks), but the Braves have enough offensive firepower that is due for positive regression and they can do some damage against Corbin this evening.

Favorite Bats: Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, Adam Duvall | Sneaky Bat: Travis d’Arnaud

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Washington Nationals vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

I know I wrote Elder up above as a potential value SP2 candidate over on DraftKings -- he allowed zero hits/runs in the spring (7.2 IP), has pitched very well at the minor league level, and has impressed the Braves staff enough to where they’re entrusting him with the start today to give Max Fried an extra day off. But things can go south quickly once Elder steps on the mound in an actual regular season MLB game and has to face down a full-strength starting lineup that features some well-known sluggers like Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz, and Josh Bell. There are several great spots for offenses on this slate today and even with a young Bryce Elder making his MLB debut, I don’t believe many will go out of their way to stack the Nats bats that had been quite disappointing offensively before yesterday’s 11-run performance.

Favorite Bats: Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz, Josh Bell | Sneaky Bat: Yadiel Hernandez

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF Juan Soto | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

3B Nolan Arenado | DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

OF Giancarlo Stanton | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), TOR

OF Teoscar Hernandez | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), NYY

1B CJ Cron | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Marin perez (LHP), TEX

OF Adam Duvall | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Salary Savers 💸

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B/3B/OF Brad Miller | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Chad Kuhl (RHP), COL

OF Connor Joe | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), TEX

2B/SS Jose Iglesias | DK: $3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Martin Perez (LHP), TEX

SS/3B Bobby Witt Jr. | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), STL

1B/2B Keston Hiura | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Spenser Watkins (LHP), BAL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Adam Duvall | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

Patrick Corbin allowed 2.40 HR/9 to RHBs last year to go along with a very high 24.6% HR/FB Rate and .260 ISO. While his HR/FB Rate is high, Corbin doesn’t allow a ton of fly balls to begin with (33.3% FB% vs. RHBs in 2021). However, Adam Duvall produced a high 56.8% FB% last year paired with a strong 43.9% HardHit%. There is a good chance Duvall will get at least two cracks at Corbin today and if he gets under one of those pitches, there is a strong chance the ball takes a trip over the wall at Truist Park.

Players Props & Bets 💰

Patrick Sandoval over 5.5 Strikeouts | +115

Based on 2021 numbers, the left-handed Sandoval leads all pitchers today with a 15.2% Swinging Strike %, and his strikeout upside remained consistent in the spring when he struck out nine batters across 7.2 IP. Coming out of the gate, the Miami Marlins have recorded a league-high 42.5% kRate versus left-handed pitchers in 40 plate appearances this season. As long as Sandoval pushes for around 80 pitches today, he should be able to record at least six Ks in that time.

Nolan Arenado over 1.5 Total Bases | +100

It’s been a hot start for ‘Nado this season as he has gone 6-for-12 over St. Louis’ first three games. Five of his hits have gone for extra bases (three 2B, two HR)! Today he’ll get to step up to the plate against Royals lefty Daniel Lynch who, in 2021, allowed a .381 wOBA and 1.78 WHIP to RHBs. Lynch also allowed 17 hits (four HRs) and two walks across his 12.1 IP in the spring, resulting in a poor 1.54 WHIP. After Daniel Lynch is retired, a Royals bullpen will take over that has pitched through 20.1 innings this season and has posted an MLB-worst 1.92 WHIP in that time. The KC bullpen has also given up 26 hits and 18 runs in the last two days! Arenado should hit this prop with ease today.

Taking him to hit a home run at +370 odds (FanDuel sportsbook) is mighty appealing as well. Arenado’s only at-bat against a lefty this season resulted in one of his two home runs.

Los Angeles Angels Moneyline + St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 Parlay | +260

I’m going back to the Angels and looking for them to out-duel the Marlins for a second consecutive day. Much like yesterday, I view both starters (Patrick Sandoval, LAA & Jesus Luzardo, MIA) as a fairly even match-up but the bullpen edge and offensive edge go to the Angels, especially if Mike Trout (illness) is back in the starting lineup.

As for the Cardinals, their offense is simply in a smash spot versus Daniel Lynch and a reeling Royals bullpen which, as mentioned above with Arenado’s write-up, comes in after giving up 26 hits and 18 runs to Cleveland in the last two days. I may even recommend looking at alternate Cardinals runlines if you’re searching for longer odds -- I’m seeing Cardinals -2.5 at +225 and -3.5 at +350. Let’s just hope the Royals don’t decide to be the “struggling offense that is all of a sudden surprisingly effective” like the Oakland A’s were yesterday.