Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 4/12/19 | "On Deck" Podcast w/ Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

The Major League has ten games split right down the middle today so we’ll have a go at the modest five-gamer starting this evening. If I had to choose my perfect MLB slate size, I’d say eight games is a nice sweet spot. But I’m cool with the occasional small slate as long as there are a few decent pitchers along with some offenses that don’t make me want to crack open a bottle of Jack at 8:00 am when I’m writing these newsletters. The bottle will stay sealed today as four of these games have totals of at least nine runs but there are also some seemingly viable pitchers taking the mound. Let’s dive right in as I do my best to not get too distracted by The Masters stream I have going on in the background.

Here are today’s match-ups and Vegas lines:

Once again, Chicago is a point of interest when going over possible weather implications. There is some rain in the forecast but current indications are that the rough stuff doesn’t arrive until closer to midnight eastern time. They should be able to get this game in but check later in the day to see if those storms are moving in faster than expected.

Winds blowing in from the left outfield around 10 mph in Atlanta could give pitchers a slight boost as well, but overall, shouldn’t be a major factor in today’s decision making.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they're released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Jon Gray (DK: $9.3k, FD: $8.5k) | RHP | COL @ SF

Similar to Robbie Ray yesterday, I believe Gray is our best bet for a 10 K caliber performance as he did in his season debut against the Marlins over the course of 6.2 innings and 89 pitches. I believe we can let him slide for a faltering performance in his following start when he faced off against that powerful Dodgers lineup IN Coors Field where he allowed five earned runs on eight hits in 6 IP. He’ll get a much easier pitching environment in San Francisco’s Oracle Park, the 4th most pitcher-friendly park. The Giants are hitting RHPs at just a .181 AVG, .239 wOBA, .227 BABIP, .121 ISO, and have posted a 25.5% kRate -- all figures that rank either near the bottom or dead last in the MLB. Gray isn't an ace by any means, but he has a strong 24.8% kRate, 1.33 WHIP, 3.53 xFIP, and 3.71 SIERA -- mostly above average numbers but “above average” should be just fine when taking on the Giants. He handles both sides of the plate pretty evenly with the exception of a bit more hard contact given up to lefties. Brandon Belt would be the only Giants lefty I’d be overly concerned about. The Rockies are -111 favorites as the Giants implied total is sitting at just 3.2 runs.

Nathan Eovaldi (DK: $8.6k, FD: $6.8k) | RHP | BOS vs. TOR

I wasn’t going to give Eovaldi too much consideration until he starts to string together a couple decent starts but then I noticed how drastic his Home/Road splits were. He pitches significantly better at home and, as you’ll probably notice, today will be his first start in Boston this season. Here are his 2018 home/away splits:

Home: 48.0 IP, 2.06 ERA, .242 wOBA, 26.9% kRate, 3.24 xFIP, .262 BABIP, 0.88 WHIP

Away: 63.0 IP, 5.14 ERA, .327 wOBA, 19.1% kRate, 4.00 xFIP, .303 BABIP, 1.32 WHIP

Like I said, pretty significant splits. The Blue Jays are striking out a ton to righties this year -- 29.7% kRate in 303 plate appearances. They also have just a .255 wOBA, .144 ISO, and .215 BABIP. With this info in mind, it’s suddenly much easier to see why Boston are huge -190 favorites today. Going from facing Oakland and Seattle on the road to the Blue Jays at home should be the boost Eovaldi needs to put out by far his best outing this season (won’t be hard to surpass -0.8 and 5.9 DK points). He’s not much of a bargain at his DK price, but $6,800 on FD leaves room for major upside.

Kevin Gausman (DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.6k) | RHP | ATL vs. NYM

He’s priced on complete opposite ends of the spectrum between the two sites -- tied for second cheapest on DK, second most expensive on FD. So, he’ll have more interest from me as an SP2 option over on DraftKings. I don’t think I’ll be looking to attack the Mets offense very often this year with the way they are playing but options are somewhat limited today. Their 6.27 runs per game puts them at 5th in the MLB and they are hitting RHP very well so far this season in 303 plate appearances: .336 wOBA, .328 BABIP, .180 ISO, and .342 OBP. However, their 26.1% kRate is the 7th highest in baseball. Despite the fact that his first start came against the lowly Marlins, Gausman pitched a gem: 7 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 7 K, 0 ER on 88 pitches and had a bit longer of a leash than I expected the Braves to give him coming off of injury. But really, the way he was controlling the game, there wasn’t much reason to pull him and he was very efficient with his pitch count. He doesn’t need to be quite as dominant today against the Mets to pay off his DK salary and some inward blowing winds in Atlanta may also come around to help him a time or two.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses. I only mention this because I’ve seen some frustration in chat with people who seem like they may be forcing in large team stacks almost exclusively.

Boston Red Sox (LHB) vs. Aaron Sanchez (RHP - Toronto Blue Jays)

Aaron Sanchez is certainly playing a bit over his head through his first two starts of the season and should be expected to regress a bit today. The Red Sox will have the most talented lineup he’s faced yet after Sanchez got his first two starts against the Tigers and Indians -- both struggling offenses. Sanchez also posted terrible splits against lefties last season: 14.9% kRate, 16.2% Walk Rate, 6.20 xFIP, .380 wOBA, and a 1.99 WHIP. Boston, in general, have a bunch of guys who just don’t strike out much. Their entire lineup has a sub 20% kRate versus RHPs in there last ~700 plate appearances. So we should see a lot of Red Sox get on base, but especially the LHBs. I’d start initial stacks leaning towards Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers while mixing in one of the very capable righties: JD Martinez and Mookie Betts.

San Diego Padres vs. Zack Godley (RHP - Arizona Diamondbacks)

Godley has the capability of turning it on and racking up some strikeouts but, even if this is one of those days, he still has to go through a Padres team with some powerful bats at the top of the order who are playing in a hitter’s park. Godley doesn’t have significant splits against RHBs or LHBs and overall in 2018 posted a 23.4% kRate, 10.2% Walk Rate, .324 BABIP, 3.96 xFIP, and allowed 38.4% Hard Contact. All pretty average or slightly below average numbers. If the Padres catch him on a day where he’s a bit loose with his control, then I could see at least a couple of these guys putting up a nice fantasy day: Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, and Wil Myers are top the options. This is a team I would prefer rolling out in a two-man mini stack or perhaps three. Once Godley is off of the mound, San Diego will face an Arizona bullpen that has been one of the worst in the league.

Colorado Rockies vs. Jeff Samardzija (RHP - San Francisco Giants)

Taking the Rockies on the road, especially in a very pitcher friendly park, is usually a sub-optimal strategy. But Samardzija is candidate to be perhaps the highest owned value pitchers on the slate, so there’s some leverage to be had by taking some Rockies bats. He only pitched 44.2 innings in 2018, and has gone through 9.2 inning so far this season. So there’s not a great sample size to gauge where his recent level of skill lies but his numbers aren’t good: 14.5% kRate, 12.6% Walk Rate, 1.63 WHIP, 1.21 HR/9, and 6.18 xFIP. In his first two starts this season, despite not surrendering a home run yet, he is giving up 61.3% Hard Contact on just 9.7% Soft Contact. He struggles more against lefties, which Colorado isn’t full of, unfortunately. Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and Raimel Tapia all have enough power to send one out in a tough park and are also discounted away from Coors.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Javier Baez (DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.4k) | SS | CHC vs. PIT

Truthfully, I don’t necessarily love this match-up Baez has against Musgrove but I do want some piece of the Cubs bats today, so I’ll see if I can catch Javi launch his first Wrigley Field home run of the season while I’m at it. Musgrove is better in general against righties, like Baez, but he does give up a bit more hard contact (35.8%) to that side of the plate and Baez has a 94.4 mph Exit Velo against RHPs in the last 14 days with four barreled balls. Mostly this is just a ‘gut call’ without a ton of data working in its favor. Though I do expect not many people to be paying all the way up for Baez, so I’ll try to land him at lower ownership in a GPP or two.

David Peralta (DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.7k) | OF | ARI vs. SD

The Padres are rolling out righty minor league call-up Pedro Avila for his career debut tonight. Peralta is a guy I will always consider when he’s at home facing a RHP, and in this case, a RHP making his first MLB start. Peralta has the following career home splits against righties: .399 wOBA, .234 ISO, .378 BABIP, .376 OBP, and 42.6% Hard Contact. After a strong start to the season, his production has dipped in the past week but this could be a good ‘get right’ spot for him.

Rowdy Tellez (DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.6k) | 1B | TOR @ BOS

As much as I think Eovaldi shows a strong performance at home with his extreme home/road splits, there’s always the potential that he’s just not ready to get into a groove in 2019 yet. Eovaldi has already given up four HRs in 10 innings and is allowing 62.5% Hard Contact to LHBs. Versus righties, Tellez has a .765 wOBA+ISO in his last 52 plate appearances with 5 HRs. There’s always a risk that Tellez gets pulled if Boston brings in a lefty reliever, so there’s a large amount of risk/reward rolling him out today.

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