Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 4/10/19 | "On Deck" Podcast w/ Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

Has everyone recovered from last night’s deGrom deSaster? I hope so because we have nine games to look towards now. On the docket for tonight are a few solid arms available to analyze and consider but none are really in ‘smash’ spots. There are plenty of angles to attack this slate at and we absolutely won’t see a pitcher hit 40%/80% in GPP/cash ownership like yesterday. At first look, there were several quality team stacks that stood out as well and I'll look to break a couple of those down further below. Also, no Coors Field to worry about this evening!

Here are tonight’s match-ups and Vegas lines:

Keep an eye on conditions in Chicago for the match-up between the Pirates and Cubs. It’s going to be cold and winds are forecasted to be blowing IN at around 20 mph. Sizable downgrade to hitters, upgrade to pitchers.

Kansas City will have the warmest temperatures of the day with the Mariners in town. First pitch should see about 80 degree temperatures with winds blowing right to left around 15 mph. If those winds happen to shift towards the outfield, we could expect a higher chance of some homers, particularly from the righties.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they're released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Robbie Ray (DK: $9.4k, FD: $8.1k) | LHP | ARI vs. TEX

I’ll definitely have some shares of Thor and a couple other guys towards the top of pricing but Ray is in a slight ‘buy low’ spot, especially at his FanDuel price, and carries some strong upside. Ray absolutely dominates lefties and the Rangers are lefty-heavy at the top of the order with guys like Odor, Mazara, and Gallo. Ray had a 34.2% kRate against LHB last season and an incredibly low 0.66 WHIP, .145 BABIP, and a 2.72 xFIP. He gave up a few runs and walked five in his season debut against the explosive Dodgers lineup but Ray also flashed that strikeout upside, fanning nine batters in five innings. If Ray can limit the damage done by the Rangers peskier RHBs while also getting the benefit of not having to face a DH, then 6 K’s would seem like a good floor to project with 10+ K’s as a real possibility. The Diamondbacks are strong -140 home favorites and the Rangers have a 3.6 implied run total.

Frankie Montas (DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.3k) | RHP | OAK @ BAL

Montas has played pretty well through his first two starts, allowing just three runs through 11 innings against the Angels and Astros while recording a strikeout per inning. He’ll face what should be the best match-up he’s had up to this point when he takes the mound against the Orioles. As a team since the start of 2018, the Orioles have a 23.6% kRate against RHPs with just a .302 wOBA, .159 ISO, and .288 BABIP. They are a fairly righty heavy team, so Montas really just needs to limit production from the two lefties who will probably be near the top of the order: Jonathan Villar and Dwight Smith Jr. Montas has the potent Oakland offense at his back to provide run support and the A’s are sizable -180 favorites with Baltimore holding a 4.5 implied run total -- which isn’t ideal but the Orioles have scored more than four runs in just four of 11 games this season so there’s no guarantee they hit that total.

Jake Odorizzi (DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.4k) | RHP | MIN @ NYM

Hopefully people get scared away from Odorizzi by only looking at his recent start against the Phillies where he had to be pulled after just 0.2 innings after giving up a quick four earned runs. He’ll make for an intriguing GPP play against this lefty dominant Mets team. There’s obviously no guarantee Odorizzi can replicate his season debut performance against Cleveland (6 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 11 K’s on 92 pitches) but it’s worth noting that lefties have gone 0-20 with 11 K’s against him through his 6.2 IP thus far. The Mets are loaded with LHBs at the top of the order so if he can keep this trend of shutting that side of the plate down, there is a volatile ceiling he could hit, especially in such a pitcher-friendly park like Citi Field. With Syndergaard starting opposite of Odorizzi, it’s no surprise that the Twins are +170 underdogs but a 4.2 implied run total for the Mets isn’t exactly damning for his potential for success.

Team Stacks to Target

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Jeremy Hellickson (RHP - Washington Nationals)

This will be Hellickson’s first start of the season and he gets to take on the fourth best offense in the MLB (6.30 runs per game) in their home stadium -- Citizen’s Bank Park, the #9 most hitter friendly park. The new look Phillies have the largest sample size against RHP at home (239 plate appearances) so I feel these numbers carry some weight even though it’s still early in the season. Against righties, when playing at home, Philadelphia is hitting to the tune of a .359 wOBA and .259 ISO with a .351 OBP and a 13% Walk Rate. Hellickson doesn’t have extreme splits against righties or lefties so both sides of the plate are in play. In 91.1 IP in 2018, he had just a 17.6% kRate and a 4.27 xFIP. He may not go too deep into this game which would be just fine because the Nat’s bullpen has been among the worst in the league this season: 8.24 ERA, .381 BABIP, 5.10 xFIP, 1.80 WHIP, 1.71 HR/9. Pretty ugly... unless you're a Phillies batter tonight. Anyone at the top of this order has my attention: Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper, Jean Segura, and Andrew McCutchen are, of course, the go-to options. Also, Maikel Franco has already launched four homers this season and will always carry lower ownership due to his usual spot in the order.

Seattle Mariners (RHB) vs. Heath Fillmyer (RHP - Kansas City Royals)

Fillmyer just got called up from Triple-A to draw the start tonight against a Mariners team that leads the league with eight runs per game. So this could get dicey for him in a hurry. It’s not a huge sample size to go off of but Fillmyer showed pretty extreme reverse splits in his 13 MLB starts for KC last season, so we’ll be looking for Mariner righties. Fillmyer allowed a .345 wOBA and 1.95 HR/9 on 44.4% Hard Contact to RHBs in his starts last year. With the warm-ish temperatures and wind blowing right to left at 15+ mph with potential to shift towards the left outfield, this bodes well for the Mariner power righties. Edwin Encarnacion, Domingo Santana, Mitch Haniger, and Ryon Healy are who I would prioritize. If Fillmyer doesn’t last long, well then the Royals bullpen is another group not faring well in the early goings of 2019: 8.07 ERA, 6.24 xFIP, 5.45 SIERA, .371 BABIP with just a 16.3% kRate.

Arizona Diamondbacks (LHB) vs. Lance Lynn (RHP - Texas Rangers)

Lynn gives up a ton of production to LHBs while not striking many batters out with just a 15.9% kRate. Against lefties, he allows a .366 wOBA, .348 BABIP, 1.93 WHIP and 5.10 xFIP. Not. Very. Good. Chase Field is a hitter’s park and a mix-and-match lefty D-backs stack may fly under the radar tonight. David Peralta, Jarrod Dyson, Ketel Marte, and Eduardo Escobar would be the lefties I’d want to target out in the desert this evening.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Pete Alonso (DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.8k) | 1B | NYM vs. MIN

I know I have the Twins starting pitcher tonight, Jake Odorizzi, listed as a potential GPP option but Alonso is one guy that could be a huge hurdle for him to overcome tonight. Of course it’s unsustainable, but Alonso is rocking an absurd 60% Hard Contact Rate with a 96.7 mph Exit Velocity against RHPs this season. The fact that he has four home runs in his last three games is pretty appealing too… to say the least. The Mets may have found something special with this kid and his DFS prices are likely to only go up from here. Strong FanDuel value.

Whit Merrifield (DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.3k) 2B/OF | KC vs. SEA

Okay, I know this guy is in the same price range as Alonso but he may be the most consistent non-superstar in all of baseball… and the MVP of my “Beat the Streak” season. He’s hit safely in every game this season. He may not be a flashy power hitter but he’s an ideal MLB lead-off batter. He has four XBH (two doubles, two triples) already this season, rarely strikes out, can steal a bag or two, draw the occasional walk, and due to his high OBP (.378) he’s always a candidate to score a couple runs. He’ll face a LHP in Kikuchi tonight and has great career splits against lefties: .323 AVG, .376 wOBA, .373 BABIP, and .373 OBP. Given the wind conditions talked about in the Mariners stack section above, righties may have an advantage tonight when it comes to hitting homers. Merrifield can produce some power on LHP with a career .188 ISO and 39.3% Hard Contact. Solid one-off selection in your lineups.

Yadier Molina (DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.3k) | C | STL vs. LAD

People rarely want to spend up on catcher and despite the tough righty on righty match-up with Kenta Maeda, Yadier Molina just seems underpriced as one of the better hitters at his position. He should get a solid spot in the order, likely fifth, and he seems to be breaking out of his very early season slump, as he now has seven hits in his last four games. He’s hitting on a 43.6% Hard Contact Rate with a 41% Fly Ball Rate, so he may get ahold of one that leaves the yard soon. If Maeda gets pulled relatively early (about 5 IP) then Molina could also do his damage in one or two ABs against a Dodgers bullpen that has been pretty average so far this season.

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