By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Preview & Strategy Guide ⚾

Welcome back to baseball! Opening Day is now only a matter of hours away and we at LineStar are looking to help bolster your bankroll in the 2021 MLB season. Whether you’re new to MLB DFS or you’ve been in the game for several years, I’d recommend giving the 2021 LineStar MLB DFS Primer & Strategy Guide a read if you haven’t already! Never hurts to shake off the cobwebs!

To start things off, I’m going to go ahead and let everyone know that this particular newsletter will be a bit different than what you’ll typically see throughout the season. For one, this is being sent out the night before the games so everyone can hopefully have a little extra time to give it a read on Thursday morning. Opening Day puts every single team in action with 15 games on deck beginning at 1:05 ET with 10:10 ET being the game with the latest first pitch. As you’re likely aware, most weekday main slates are going to usually start up around 7 ET. Unfortunately, the main slate game selections are not synced up between DraftKings and FanDuel, so we’re going to instead focus on the monster 15-game “All Day” slate -- the majority of those games are of course still on both main slates if that happens to be your preferred slate to focus on. It just seems like the most logical slate to cover since the number of LineStar users who only play DraftKings is about the same as the number of folks who only play FanDuel. Just trying to cover all the bases, so to speak.

But I’m not going to spend too much time rambling in today’s intro. Let’s get into these games! And remember, the early part of the baseball season is a good time to go light on your daily spend. There are simply a slew of too many unknowns out there. I personally only play about 5% of my bankroll each day for at least the first couple weeks of the season but, at the end of the day, you spend your moolah however you want! Good luck this year, everybody!

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

TOR @ NYY: Some potential for a late start if rain lingers around during the scheduled first pitch. They’ll get the game in though. Winds blowing OUT to right at 15 mph. Cold game temps in the 40s. Wind would help the hitters but those temps will not so… sort of a wash.

CLE @ DET: Temps near freezing at first pitch and 15-20 mph winds (blowing OUT to center) will put the wind chill factor into the 20s. Games can be postponed for cold conditions but it’d be a shock if they did that on Opening Day. Can’t fully rule it out though.

BAL @ BOS: Same deal as New York. Lingering rain could force a late start but it’s not really a major PPD concern. Temps in the mid-40s with winds blowing left to right at 10-15 mph.

PIT @ CHC: Game temps in the 30s with winds blowing IN at 15 mph. Wrigley Field is easily affected by winds so I believe you have to downgrade hitters and upgrade SPs here. Also, this is another game that has an outside chance of being PPD due to the cold temps.

LAD @ COL: Temps around 70 degrees and light winds blowing out. But obviously, the key note here for the uninitiated is that this is Coors Field -- the park’s extreme elevation helps home runs fly out at a high rate… much easier than any where else in the MLB. It will be no surprise that this will be a popular game to stack up some bats in.

There are a lot of games to cover and I don’t want to flood this section too much. Just be aware that there are several impactful temperatures and wind conditions in quite a few games on Opening Day. Be sure to keep an eye on the Daily Dashboard for all forecast changes.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tyler Glasnow (RHP) | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10k | @ MIA

In the strategy guide I talk about how I’ll typically look to pay up for pitching (at least one $9k+ SP on DK) but I’m not fully married to that idea super early on in the season. The primary reason is that many teams and managers will restrict their guys to a pitch count. If I’m paying top dollar for a pitcher, I’m hoping to get 100+ pitches out of him. There probably won’t be many guys who hit a triple digit pitch count on Opening Day but if we get about 85 to 90 pitches from Glasnow, I believe he can return value here. In 2020, his 38.2% kRate trailed only Shane Bieber and Jacob deGrom… that’s great company to keep! He K’d up 27 batters in just 14 innings of spring ball and also added a nasty new pitch to his arsenal in the off-season -- a cutter/slider aka what some baseball heads refer to as a “slutter” (see below). Glasnow will get to take the mound in a pitcher’s park and face a Marlins team that projects as a bottom 10 offense in 2021. Miami possesses just a 3.4 implied run total while Tampa Bay enters Opening Day as a solid -150 favorite.

Kenta Maeda (RHP) | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.4k | @ MIL

I’m loving this spot for Maeda as he comes off of an excellent year one in Minnesota and will face a Brewers team which he very nearly no-hit back in August of last season. Milwaukee certainly underperformed offensively last year and they project to be an above average offense in 2021 so it isn’t like this is a cake match-up. But Maeda led the entire MLB with a 21.5% Hard Contact Rate allowed and his 2.63 xFIP ranked third behind only those two studs, Bieber and deGrom. There are also no major concerns with his strikeout upside as he held a very strong 32.3% kRate in 2020, including a 17.2% SwStr% (ranked third).

Kyle Hendricks (RHP) | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.1k | vs. PIT

Hendricks draws perhaps the best pitcher’s weather of the day with those 30 degree temps producing cold and dense air which negatively impacts hitters. On top of that, those winds will be blowing IN at Wrigley at 15+ mph. Finally, he’ll be throwing against what many baseball analysts believe will be the worst offense in baseball this season in the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates have an exciting young player in Ke’Bryan Hayes who is the odds on favorite to win ROTY this season. Kevin Newman also recorded a wild .690 AVG in spring ball, registering a hit on 20-of-29 at-bats. But, as a whole, there just isn’t anything too scary about this group of hitters. Hendricks isn’t the strongest top of the rotation pitcher, but he had a solid year in 2020 when he posted a 2.88 ERA, 3.78 xFIP, and a 1.00 WHIP. The Ks weren’t really there for him (20.3% kRate) but, aided by his elite control, there are plenty of reasons to believe he will improve upon that stat this season.

Dylan Bundy (RHP) | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.9k | vs. CWS

Bundy draws a tough match-up with a dangerous White Sox offense but he showed tremendous improvement as a pitcher a season ago in his first year in an Angels uniform. His overall control took a major leap forward and he ended the shortened 2020 season with a 34.0% CSW% (called strikes + whiffs) which trailed only Jacob deGrom (34.6%). He also posted a strong 1.04 WHIP and 27% kRate while holding opposing batters to a .207 AVG. He isn’t an ultra safe bet but, for these salaries, I love his upside.

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) | DK: $6.3k, FD: $8.1k | vs. BAL

If there is a team to roll Eovaldi out against in DFS lineups… it would seem to be the O’s. In three starts (19.0 IP) against Baltimore last year, Eovaldi held the Orioles to just two earned runs (0.95 ERA) and a 1.05 WHIP while averaging 24.9 DKFP per game. Historically he is a very hit or miss pitcher and certainly not someone I would consider a ‘safe’ option. It is worth mentioning that his .336 BABIP in 2020 was elevated quite a bit in comparison to his .308 career BABIP, so we can assume that he was getting a bit unlucky at times. He could absolutely end up being a great fantasy point per dollar play but, again, I’d only use him in GPPs and probably only on DK as an SP2.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stack: The Dodgers are in Coors Field on Opening Day. It’s going to be tough to ignore them especially with so many difficult pitching match-ups facing offenses.

San Diego Padres vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), SF

There are not many offenses you’re going to feel great about no matter what slate you’re playing today. Every team is rolling out their most talented healthy arm which is going to make our stack decisions pretty tricky. Fortunately, when it comes to a team like the Padres, they have the firepower that can shell virtually any pitcher in the league. Also, it isn’t exactly like Bumgarner was great last season, especially when it came to facing righties. Against RHBs in 2020, Bumgarner held an awful 6.74 xFIP and allowed a .404 wOBA, 1.57 WHIP, 3.30 HR/9, and struck out just 12.1% of righty hitters. Bumgarner’s 44% Hard Hit Rate allowed to all batters also ranks dead last among today’s starters.

Boston Red Sox vs. John Means (LHP), BAL

Means closed out his 2020 season with a nice little successful stretch but at the end of the day, he is simply one of the least talented starting pitchers on the slate and the Red Sox have some hitters who are capable of tagging him up. There is nothing particularly scary about Means as a pitcher which leads to Boston holding a 5.2 implied run total, which is currently the second highest projection on the slate behind the Dodgers. Means is prone to allowing homers and his 2.47 HR/9 rate from last season ranks as the second worst among Opening Day pitchers. His low .216 BABIP in 2020 also seems incredibly unsustainable and indicates that he was getting considerably lucky. I could definitely see some scenarios where Boston strings a good number of runs together against Means early on.

Kansas City Royals vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP), Texas Rangers

When Kyle Gibson is your day one pitcher at the top of your rotation, you may be in trouble. Gibson is coming off of a season where he allowed a slate worst 1.53 WHIP across his twelve starts (67.1 IP). He also recorded a poor 5.35 ERA and 4.77 SIERA while striking out just 19.3% of batters. On top of Gibson just being a very average/below average starting MLB pitcher, the Rangers bullpen suffered some injuries during spring ball and won’t be at 100%. The Kansas City stack always seems to fly under the radar and even with Adalberto Mondesi starting the season on the IL, there are still four or five bats that I’d have interest in on this team.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Los Angeles Angels vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

Giolito is great and he’s not a pitcher I’m going to be actively targeting very much this season. But if you’re targeting the later games, the Angels have some bats who can get to a strong pitcher like Gio. Having a core that consists of Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Anthony Rendon is going to give LAA a solid chance to produce some runs against most pitchers in the league. Add on emerging players atop the order like Jared Walsh and David Fletcher, and you’ve got a really good group of hitters to stack here. To state the obvious, this would be more of a contrarian stack to consider.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

OF Randy Arozarena | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

Many will remember Arozarena’s insane run last season when he hammered 10 HRs across 20 playoff games. He boasted an incredible 176 wRC+ last season and all of the statcast numbers from spring training are indicating that he’s still smashing the ball with a very high exit velocity. This is not a very favorable righty on righty match-up with Alcantara but I’m interested to see if Arozarena can pick up where he left off in the playoffs.

OF Marcell Ozuna | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI

Ozuna is coming off of a career season where he hit .338 with a .444 wOBA, .298 ISO, and 179 wRC+. He’ll likely be slotted in at 3rd or 4th in this lethal Braves order and he gets a positive BvP match-up against a guy he’s had some nice success against. In 27 plate appearances against Aaron Nola, Ozuna is hitting .333 with an .800 wOBA+ISO and three home runs. Nola is a very good pitcher but if the Braves pour on any number of runs, I’d be willing to bet Ozuna was a key contributor to the damage.

1B CJ Cron | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD

Cron only played in 13 games a year ago but in his last full season in 2019, he owned a massive .310 ISO against LHPs along with a 160 wRC+ and a 36.7% HR/FB Rate. That power is definitely going to come in handy on his new team in Colorado and expect him to take full advantage of the launch pad that is Coors Field. Kershaw is obviously a tough pitcher to go against but, as many may know, he can definitely be prone to giving up the long ball.

2B/OF Ketel Marte | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.9k |vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

I know Yu Darvish is one of the better pitchers in baseball right now, but these are some super tempting salaries for a guy like Ketel Marte who is hitting .334 with a .404 wOBA over his last 150 games. In 16 spring games, Marte is also hitting .341 with a .449 OBP, three home runs, and seven doubles. As I mentioned earlier, there is a good chance that guys like Darvish will be on pitch counts in the early portion of the season so we could reasonably assume that Marte and the D-Backs will see bullpen arms for nearly half of this game. He won’t need to do anything crazy to pay off these prices.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Mookie Betts | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.8k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

Yeah, I’m taking the easy way out for my Opening Day home run call and going to Mookie Betts in Coors Field. Betts slapped 16 homers out of the park in 55 games last year alongside a .268 ISO and 43.4% Hard Hit Rate. Following a pretty solid spring training, I think he’ll keep his momentum rolling on into 2021.

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