Written by Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 Today's DFS On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

The bad news today: it’s Monday. The good news: It’s Monday with baseball. Unless you’ve been grinding spring training, it’s been a while since you had some professional baseball DFS to look forward to on a Monday. All but four teams are hitting the diamond today and there are four early games that are awkwardly split up into two game slates -- I’ll be happy to avoid those. Our main slate for this evening features nine games that lack quite a bit of star power on the mound. Picking our pitcher(s) will be a bit trickier than usual, as there’s no one or two guys that seem like near locks for elite production. With pitching on the weaker side today, it would be no surprise to see several teams go off for a swarm of runs, so there are quite a few options we can reasonably consider to have promising ‘team stack’ upside.

Here are the match-ups and Vegas lines for tonight’s games:

The weather for today’s games looks pretty clear and not something we’ll need to worry about. Four games will be played in domes and the other five don’t present any significant chances of rain or advantageous or disadvantageous wind conditions at this time.

Keep an eye on the LineStar Daily Dashboard page for up-to-date weather forecasts for each game!

Pitchers to Consider

Steven Matz (DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.2k) | LHP | NYM @ MIA

Preface: David Price is the most expensive pitcher on both sites and is in a bit of a dangerous spot against a volatile Oakland team. Guys like Matt Strahm and Julio Urias both played reliever roles in 2018 and question marks surround both, especially Urias, in terms of how limited each guy’s pitch count will be. I’d trust Strahm a bit more but I don’t love either's price tag on DraftKings -- both are much more attractive over on FanDuel.

So this leads me to leaning towards starting lineup builds with Matz, who is facing a pretty lackluster Marlins squad. The Marlins ranked dead last versus LHPs last year in wOBA (.283) and ISO (.115) and had the 4th lowest BABIP (.281). Matz also held the Marlins to a .140 AVG in their last 49 ABs against him. He’s not an elite strikeout producer (19.8% kRate) but his BABIP (.267) was one of the better marks in the league. While other pitchers have more strikeout upside today, Matz should have a better shot than most at seeing 90+ pitches and 7+ innings of work while throwing in a very pitcher-friendly park. The Mets are a -128 favorite and the Marlins only have an implied total of 3.4 runs.

Kyle Hendricks (DK: $7.2k, FD: $9k) | RHP | CHC @ ATL

Hendricks is much more appealing on DraftKings (9th most expensive pitcher) as opposed to FanDuel (2nd most expensive pitcher) and is another guy who doesn’t have a phenomenal kRate (19.8%) but he can keep the ball in the park and pitch deep into games. Hendricks only gives up 0.99 HR/9 (24th best) and limited hard contact to just 29.9% last year (11th best) along with a .281 BABIP. The Braves aren’t exactly the best match-up, as they were more ‘middle-of-the-road’ versus righties last season: 20.8% kRate, .313 wOBA, .298 BABIP, and .155 ISO. But the hope here is that Hendricks flirts with 5 or 6 strikeouts and goes for 7+ innings pitched. The Braves have just a 3.7 implied run total, so there’s plenty of reason to believe Hendricks can turn in a strong outing today.

Ryan Yarbrough (DK: $6k, FD: $6.2k) | LHP | TB vs. COL

Yarbrough is a risk, as he doesn’t start and is categorized more as a "bulk reliever." However, when he comes in to face the bottom of the Rockies order, the expectation is he will culminate about five or six innings worth of work. He did pretty well in this same role last year and pitched himself to a 16-6 record with a 20.8% kRate and held batters to a .288 BABIP. Like I said in the intro, pitching is pretty shaky today, so maybe you just want to drop a cheap guy like Yarbrough in a lineup then just load up on big bats. There’s at least a decent chance Yarbrough gets a few K's and picks up a win as the Rays are strong -145 favorites with the Rockies holding a 3.6 implied run total. It won't take an ace performance to pay off this salary.

Team Stacks to Target

Boston Red Sox vs. Aaron Brooks (RHP - Oakland Athletics)

You really do have your pick of the litter when it comes to team stacks today. The Red Sox may end up being the most popular option since they are in a great spot. You can differentiate elsewhere, no need to avoid Boston bats just because they’ll carry a lot of ownership. Aaron Brooks will be 29 at the end of this month and has just 60.2 unspectacular innings pitched in his MLB career. In that time, he has just a 14.4% kRate, .365 BABIP, 4.76 xFIP, and a 4.56 SIERA -- all terrible numbers... poor at best. I would expect the A’s bullpen to get involved pretty early but the Red Sox can do plenty of damage throughout this game. The entire lineup is essentially in play but Brooks has shown no ability to shut down righties whatsoever (10.6% kRate, .443 wOBA, .388 BABIP, 5.27 xFIP). Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts would be my first priorities -- of course, that’s a very pricey stack. I’m okay with mixing and matching Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi, and Mitch Moreland in as well.

Texas Rangers vs. Brad Peacock (RHP - Houston Astros)

Peacock may be a popular option today due to his nutty 35.3% kRate but he struggled mightily versus lefties last year, especially powerful lefties. He allowed LHBs to hit for a .394 wOBA, .225 ISO, 3.13 HR/9, and 39.1% Hard Contact. Globe Life Park in Arlington is about the most hitter-friendly park in MLB and I’m all about stacking up some powerful Ranger LHBs today. Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor, Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, and Asdrubal Cabrera all look like nice options.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Sean Reid-Foley (RHP - Toronto Blue Jays)

On a day where there’s at least five strong offenses in great spots, an Orioles stack will carry very little ownership. Sean Reid-Foley only pitched 33.1 innings in 2018 so there’s not a lot of recent data to go off of from last season but the numbers we do have show that he’s a match-up that can be exploited. He had a terrible 14% Walk Rate, 1.62 HR/9, and a 4.21 xFIP. When piecing together a Baltimore stack, I wouldn’t focus only on LHBs or RHBs because Reid-Foley seems to have weaknesses against both sides of the plate. Anyone towards the top of the order should be viable. My favorites would be: Trey Mancini, Jonathan Villar, Renato Nunez, and Joey Rickard.

One-Off Hitters

Switching things up a bit today. Instead of listing off three ‘value bats’, I’ll highlight a player at different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Mike Trout (DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.9k) | OF | LAA @ SEA

He may be the priciest (and most obvious) bat on the slate but he could be worth it considering his history against Felix Hernandez. There are BvP believers and BvP naysayers, but regardless of where you stand on the debate, it’s tough to ignore Trout’s career stats versus Hernandez. Against him, he is 31 of 83 (.373), has a .419 OBP, knocked out 8 HRs, and accounted for 20 RBIs. There’s a strong feeling that Trout hits his first dinger of the season tonight.

Justin Turner (DK: $4.2k, FD: $4k) | 3B | LAD vs. SF

I actually don’t mind a Dodgers RHB stack in general tonight but I like this spot for Turner who remains pretty affordable. Drew Pomeranz had a tough time versus righties last season and allowed a .401 wOBA, 1.88 HR/9, 14.3% Walk Rate, .346 BABIP, and 5.09 xFIP -- all very poor numbers. Against LHPs in 2018, Turner had a .433 wOBA, .375 BABIP, .244 ISO, and 51.0% Hard Contact Rate. I could see multiple extra base hits for him tonight.

Omar Narvaez (DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.2k) | C | SEA vs. LAA

Narvaez is off to a hot start to this season with a couple homers already through four games -- both which came against righties. Assuming he’s in the lineup again tonight, it’s tough to find a more appealing option to roll out at catcher. He would face Chris Stratton tonight who didn’t have great numbers against LHBs in 2018: .357 wOBA, 15.6% kRate, 4.56 xFIP, and a .352 OBP. I’ll probably have heavy interest in Narvaez regardless of his spot in the order but if he nabs the fifth spot again, I’m just going to “set and forget.”

LineStar MLB Freeroll

We will be doing an MLB freeroll on DraftKings every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday!

1st Place: $5 towards your lineups or a LineStar T-Shirt

Here is a link for today's freeroll!

Also, use the image below as your DraftKings avatar for 2x the prize!

Good luck out there today!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!