Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

🔊 On Deck Podcast Weekend Edition with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney

⚾️ 2019 MLB Preview & Strategy Guide

Happy weekend LineStar fam! Welcome to a Saturday edition of the Daily Ledger. For those of you who are new to LineStar, my name is Greg and I’m one of the MLB writers here. You can follow me on Twitter (@GP_Landry) or find me in the LineStar chat rooms (@glandry). I'll be working alongside Ryan to make sure we cover every main slate for you throughout the season. I’m pumped to be back for another year of baseball with all of you.

Tonight’s main slate is a bit ugly. We have a bunch of question marks on the mound which will make tournaments basically a free for all and cash game lineups a bit difficult to build with total confidence. We have a couple of pitchers making their debuts tonight, we have some regulars who carry plenty of upside but low floors, and we also have a once considered top five pitcher in baseball in Yu Darvish who needs to prove himself this season after injuries have given us reasons to be pessimistic. This will be a fun one to break down and see if we can find ourselves any advantages that others might overlook.

Weather tonight appears to be a non-issue. There are no threats of rain and no unusual temperatures for us to be concerned with. Be sure to leave yourself enough time to check back in case forecasts have changed but as of this writing, we are in good shape weather-wise.

Pitchers to Consider

Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS @ SEA – DK: $9K, FD: $8.9K

It’s the age old question with E-Rod. Which version of him is going to show up? When he’s on, he has as much upside as almost anyone on any slate. When he’s off though, you’re looking at a potentially disastrous early exit. Walks have always been his achilles heel in the past but he took major steps toward fixing that problem last season with just a 7.3% walk rate. The real appeal with him, however, is the strikeout upside. Rodriguez had a 35.6% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters last season and a 24.3% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. His SIERA was a respectable 3.74 with a 1.22 WHIP. He allowed a below average .300 wOBA and he did a good job limiting hard contact last season. As far as the matchup goes, the Seattle lineup certainly isn’t a walk in the park (just ask Chris Sale) but the lefty killer, better known as Nelson Cruz, is no longer a member of the Mariners. They still have some strong bats but nobody had an ISO over .180 against left-handed pitching last season. I wouldn’t go here in cash but I think Rodriguez makes sense for tournaments today.

Yu Darvish, CHC @TEX – DK: $8.9K, FD: $8.6K

When I took a first look at this slate, Darvish stood out to me right away for his name value but as somebody I’d like to take a wait and see approach with. He missed most of last season with injuries and his health is still a question mark going into today, as he’s been dealing with a blister on his pitching hand. After realizing that pitching was pretty ugly on this slate though, I’m starting to reconsider if Darvish is worth a look. The Cubs say he is good to go after he threw a successful bullpen session on Thursday. We also have a revenge narrative here for those of you into those things. Darvish has admitted that he’s excited for his first start to be against his former team. He is the all-time leader in strikeouts with 509 in this ballpark and he still resides in Texas during the offseason. I believe the masses will flock to Kenta Maeda today, given that he’s the largest favorite on the board. But I have some concerns about him that we’ll get to later in the article. If Darvish is truly healthy and can give us five to six innings, there’s room for him to pay off his current price tag. He has a career 29.5% strikeout rate with a 3.27 SIERA and a 1.19 WHIP. The Rangers, meanwhile, are historically a strikeout heavy team led by Joey Gallo and his 34.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching last season. Mathis (30.9%), Guzman (28.9%), Pence (25.9%), DeShields (24%), and Odor (24%) all have very high strikeout rates against right-handed pitching as well. The health is a concern but he is a comfortable -144 favorite and the matchup provides a ton of upside. I like taking a shot here today.

Felix Pena, LAA @OAK – DK: $5.6K, FD: $6.4K

Hear me out on this one because I’m guessing a lot of you are turning your nose up at Pena today. For starters, let’s be honest, there is no perfect solution to pitching on this main slate, so we are going to need to plant our flag somewhere and see what happens. That’s baseball DFS at its best. Pena is a perfect example of why paying attention to splits in baseball is so important. His numbers against left-handed batters are awful: 4.59 xFIP, 1.52 WHIP, 17.5% strikeouts, and a .338 wOBA allowed. Against right-handed hitters though, he’s borderline elite: 3.42 xFIP, 0.99 WHIP, 26.2% strikeouts, and just a .270 wOBA allowed. The A's have a couple of dangerous left-handed hitters to worry about, especially with the recent addition of Kendrys Morales. But for the most part, their power comes from the right-handed bats, especially Khris Davis. I think Pena can limit the damage from these guys and get through this fairly right-handed heavy lineup tonight. He’s an underdog in this matchup but not by much at +105 and this game is in the very pitcher friendly Oakland Coliseum, which finished as the third most pitcher friendly park in baseball last season.

Team Stacks to Target

Boston Red Sox vs. Mike Leake, SEA

A low strikeout, high contact pitcher against this powerful Boston lineup should spell trouble even in a poor hitter’s park. Mike Leake had just a 14.9% strikeout rate last season and when he did allow contact, only 16% of it was soft. Boston should be primed to take advantage of this today. Just about anyone in this order is in play. Leake had a 4.35 xFIP and 11.6% strikeouts against left-handed hitting and a 3.99 xFIP with 18.2% strikeouts against right-handed hitting last season, so you could give an edge to the left-handed batters. Benintendi, with his .877 OPS, .376 wOBA, and .184 ISO but only 13.3% strikeouts against right-handed pitching is standing out. The usual suspects are clearly in play as well. Mookie will be doing Mookie things. He had a 1.037 OPS, .436 wOBA, and .271 ISO against right-handed pitching last season. JD Martinez had a 45.2% hard-hit rate and a ridiculous 31.8% HR/FB in 2018. A sneakier option that could go under the radar is Jackie Bradley Jr. He had a respectable .329 wOBA, .186 ISO, and 42.8% hard-hit rate against righties.

Chicago Cubs vs. Edinson Volquez, TEX

The Cubs face off against Edinson Volquez today who hasn’t pitched in the majors since July 5, 2017. He missed all of last season after Tommy John surgery. Interestingly enough, he’s 8-0 with a 3.10 ERA in 12 career starts against the Cubs. I can’t explain why that would be, because his overall numbers paint a much different picture. In 2017, he had a 5.19 SIERA with an average 20.4% strikeout rate and an ugly 1.42 WHIP. He has a career 4.39 SIERA with below average 19.6% strikeouts and a still ugly 1.44 WHIP. Despite his inexplicable success against the Cubs, I’m going to side with the larger sample sizes here that show Volquez as a pitcher we should be comfortable attacking. Strengthening our case even further is the ballpark situation. It’s not summer yet, so we aren’t dealing with triple digit Texas heat, but Globe Life Park still graded out as the most favorable ballpark in baseball last season for offense. The middle part of the order has strong power numbers against right-handed pitching including Rizzo (.211 ISO), Baez (.263 ISO), and Schwarber (.261 ISO). Kris Bryant had a big opening day and it would be great to see him get back to form. It should come as no surprise that this game has the highest total on the board at 9.5 runs with Chicago currently -144 favorites.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kenta Maeda, LAD

Surprised by this one? Kenta Maeda had a 3.42 SIERA and a 28.5% strikeout rate last season. If you’re playing on DraftKings, he’s the most expensive pitcher on the slate. He’s also the heaviest favorite at -175 in the game with the lowest total at just 7.5. My assumption is that Maeda will be popular tonight and I think this could give us an opportunity to gain leverage on the field. Admittedly, I was drawn to Maeda at first as well and even started writing him up for the pitcher section, but the deeper I got into the numbers, the less about him I was liking. What really stands out to me is his numbers against left-handed hitting. In 2018, against lefties, he had a 4.16 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, 10% walks, a 40% hard-hit rate, and allowed a .348 wOBA. Despite a significantly watered down lineup in Arizona this season compared to last season, the one thing they are still able to do is go very left-handed heavy (something I took advantage of quite often last year). Their projected lineup for tonight’s game includes six left-handed bats and I think this could give Maeda some trouble. David Peralta is one of my favorite bats on this slate with his .398 wOBA, .251 ISO, and 52.2% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching last season. Eduardo Escobar is right up there as well with a .351 wOBA and .255 ISO against righties. Throw in a healthy Jake Lamb and you have a very dangerous group of lefties against a pitcher who has historically struggled in those situations. They are all priced under $4K on DraftKings as well, making them affordable. This will be my under the radar stack for today.

Value Bats

Want to fit in an ace pitcher and some big bats? Here are a few guys that may help you do just that.

David Peralta, ARI (DK: $3.9K, FD: $3.9K)

At this point, I guess I'll keep my love for David Peralta going. He is an absolute steal on DraftKings tonight at $3.9K. He’s the same price on FanDuel, making him less of a value over there, but he’s still in play. Peralta mashes right-handed pitching, as we talked about just a minute ago. In his last 150 bats against righties he has a .946 OPS, .658 wOBA+ISO and only 18% strikeouts.

Paul DeJong, STL (DK: $3.4K, FD: $3.1K)

DeJong feels incredibly underpriced for someone who will be batting in the middle of this very powerful Cardinals lineup. He’ll be up against Brandon Woodruff today who posted solid numbers last season including a 3.26 SIERA but the sample size was small with only 42.1 innings pitched in the majors. DeJong had a respectable .333 wOBA and showed some power upside including a .206 ISO and 39% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Kyle Schwarber, CHC (DK: $4.8K, FD: $3.3K)

Schwarber’s price on FanDuel is a joke at just $3.3K. That’s $1500 less than his price on DraftKings, which is much more appropriate. I mentioned Schwarber earlier in the stack section as a player to keep an eye on today and that was before I noticed the price on FanDuel. He had a .859 OPS, .353 wOBA, and .261 ISO against right-handed pitching last season. He gets a ballpark bump today in Texas and he’s facing a pitcher who hasn’t thrown in the majors for a year and a half. Sign me up.