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- Top MLB DFS Plays 3/29 | Eyes On West Coast Match-Ups
Top MLB DFS Plays 3/29 | Eyes On West Coast Match-Ups
Hopefully everyone enjoyed Opening Day and had a profitable DFS outing! If not, well don’t sweat it friend. Just saddle back up and let’s see if we can’t knock today’s slate out of the park! To my delight, tonight’s eight game slate begins at the more traditional time, just after 7:00 ET -- I don’t know how all you West Coast people deal with the 4 o’clock start times on a regular basis! Much respect. We also don’t have any issues with discrepancies in game selection between DraftKings and FanDuel, as all eight games are included on both sites' main slates. I’m a fan of how tonight’s games are divided right down the middle between four early games and four night games. This should give us plenty of time throughout the slate to make any adjustments where needed for our late night bats and pitchers. But don't overthink your initial research or else you may wind up tinkering yourself out of the money!
Here are our match-ups and Vegas lines for this evening:
As far as weather is concerned, five of the eight games tonight will be played in a dome, so there’s no reason to sweat there. The other three games have forecasts for cool temperatures and clear skies with no major advantages or disadvantages involving wind at this time. As always, keep an eye on the most up-to-date forecasts later in the day.
Pitchers to Consider
German Marquez (DK: $9.2k | FD: $9.8k) | RHP | COL @ MIA
Gerrit Cole is the clear-cut ace of this slate and I have no problem rolling him out anywhere, particularly in cash. However, for $2,000 (DK) and $1,500 (FD) in salary savings, Marquez certainly looks like an ultra appealing option as a reverse splits RHP against a super right-handed heavy Marlins team. Last season, the Marlins had the lowest ISO (.121) in the MLB against right handed pitchers and the second-lowest wOBA (.291). They also landed on the lower half of the league with a 22.9% kRate. Marquez had a stellar second half to 2018 and had a tendency to demolish right handed batters. His 35% kRate versus RH bats trailed only Max Scherzer and Chris Sale. He also had the second best xFIP (2.36) versus righties and held them to a .255 wOBA. The Rockies are just about the strongest favorite of the night (-155) and the Marlins only have an implied total of 3.1 runs.
Joey Lucchesi (DK: $7.9k | FD: $7.6k) | LHP | SD vs. SF
Maybe it’s too early to tell for certain but you can probably expect a bunch of pitchers facing the Giants to be highlighted this season. San Francisco, who scored the second fewest runs in 2018, didn’t look to buck that trend on Opening Day after getting shut out by Eric Lauer and the Padres bullpen. Lucchesi (26.5% kRate in 2018) will look to take on this Giants offense that had a 23.3% kRate against lefties last year (8th worst) and a .285 wOBA (2nd worst). With just 3.4 implied runs for the Giants, the Padres and Lucchesi are set up to be another one of the stronger favorites on the slate with -150 odds. The main knock for Lucchesi is his tendency to only stay on the mound for about five innings. Hopefully he can do enough against a weaker lineup in order to stay out there for at least six frames. For DraftKings, where you need two pitchers, there aren’t many promising cheap SP2’s today, so this might be my preferred option as a secondary pitcher that falls more in the mid-range of pricing.
Matthew Boyd (DK: $6.6k | FD: $7.7k) | LHP | DET @ TOR
Boyd is more of a GPP salary saving play for me today due primarily to the strikeout upside he can provide at a cheaper price tag. He threw several 7+ strikeout games last season, one which came against Toronto. On the season he had a 22.4% kRate, which is the exact same kRate the Blue Jays had as a team versus lefties. Boyd gave up 1.43 HR/9 last year so there’s a strong risk he gives up one or two long balls today. But if he stays out of early trouble, he’ll rack up some quick K’s. Hopefully he gets at least two chances at the bottom of the Blue Jays order for some easy outs and he could turn this into a nice outing. Toronto has the highest implied team total today (4.8 runs) so they will likely be a popular offense to stack making Boyd an even more intriguing leverage play in tournaments.
Team Stacks to Target
Los Angeles Angels vs. Marco Estrada (RHP - Oakland Athletics)
The Angels putting up a goose egg on the scoreboard was one of the surprises of Opening Day. I’m completely fine going back to stacking them up today against Estrada. Estrada had a pretty bleak 16.4% kRate last year and an even bleaker xFIP (5.79) and SIERA (5.45). I believe virtually every Angel towards the top of the order is in play but especially the right-handed bats, as Estrada has terrible reverse splits. Against righties, he gives up 2.04 HR/9, .389 wOBA, and has a 5.98 xFIP. In his season debut last week, he gave up three earned runs, including two home runs, against just one strike out across five innings pitched. In a team stack, I’d prioritize RHB (Mike Trout, Andrelton Simmons, Albert Pujofs, Zack Cozart) first but Kole Calhoun and Justin Bour are a couple lefties I don’t mind either.
Oakland Athletics vs. Matt Harvey (RHP - Los Angeles Angels)
Yes, sticking in the same game, an A’s stack looks just about as appealing as the Angels and I’m somewhat surprised this game total is only at 8.5 runs right now. Perhaps the guess is we’ll see a bullpen battle early on. Regardless, Oakland’s offense should take full advantage early on with their match-up against Matt Harvey. Harvey had a couple of decent stretches last year where, at times, he looked like the pitcher he once was but for now I’m subscribing to the fact that he’s just not a great pitcher anymore. His numbers were pretty equally bad against both LHBs and RHBs so I think you can just take your pick on what Athletics to stack but target the power hitters first. Harvey gave up 1.57 HR/9 on 38.9% Hard Contact last year. The A’s also had the fourth highest ISO (.191) versus RHPs last season and the fifth highest wOBA (.333). Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, and Jurickson Profar are my favorite of the bunch while Robbie Grossman possibly batting leadoff would be worth a look to save a bit of salary as well.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Robbie Ray (LHP - Arizona Diamondbacks)
A very California-centric set of stacks today, eh? Robbie Ray is a great pitcher capable of slinging double-digit strikeouts against virtually any team but that doesn’t mean he’s immune to getting touched up. You can probably guess that this is primarily a GPP stack but we saw how much the Dodgers mashed a talented pitcher yesterday when they forced an early exit for Zack Greinke (3.2 IP, 4 HR, 7 H, 7 ER, 3 K). Ray is about as stout as it gets against lefty bats (.208 wOBA, 34.2% kRate, 2.72 xFIP, .145 BABIP in 2018) but he can definitely be had by righties (.342 wOBA, 30.6% kRate, 4.13 xFIP, .337 BABIP). The following Dodger RHBs carry some nice appeal for a tournament stack: Justin Turner, Kike Hernandez, AJ Pollock, and David Freese. LAD’s implied total of 3.9 runs is about as high as you would ever expect for any team facing a strikeout specialist like Robbie Ray.
Value Bats
Want to fit in an ace pitcher and some big bats? Here are a few guys that may help you do just that.
Brandon Drury (DK: $2.9k | FD: $2.3k) | 3B | TOR vs. DET
Drury was injured for nearly all of last year but appears to be set to be the Blue Jays lead-off man and he checks in with a cheap price tag for the team with the highest implied total on the slate. While I did highlight Matthew Boyd as a viable GPP pitching option today, there’s still the strong possibility that the Jays can pile on some runs against him. Versus lefties, Drury has a career .320 wOBA, .311 BABIP, and .182 ISO. Not astonishing numbers but certainly serviceable from someone who is dirt cheap in a lead-off spot.
Michael Brantley (DK: $3.5k | FD: $3.5k) | OF | HOU @ TB
Brantley is a better value on DK but certainly worth a look on FD. Despite facing a quality pitcher in Charlie Morton, Brantley is capable of producing against the right hander. Against RHPs last year, Brantley sported a .380 wOBA, .325 BABIP, and .187 ISO. With Brantley batting cleanup, he should see his fair share of RBI producing opportunities behind the likes of George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman in the order.
Ji-Man Choi (DK: $3.2k | FD: $3k) | 1B | TB vs. HOU
Targeting hitters facing Gerrit Cole is rarely a safe proposition, so take this play for what it is: a Hail Mary home run upside punt. Choi could easily strikeout a couple times today, as he did yesterday, but he’ll slot in towards the top of the order and has a ton of power against RHPs. Last season, Choi had a .256 ISO against righties to go along with a .384 wOBA and .333 BABIP. Worth a shot as a one-off hitter in tournaments or, if you’re feeling really ballsy, a piece of a contrarian Rays stack.
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Good luck out there today!