Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

Hello again, my friends. We’re here bringing you a special MLB playoff edition of the LineStar Daily Ledger! As mentioned in the final regular-season MLB newsletter last Friday, the plan is to provide a slate break down whenever there are four games on any given day in the postseason. We’re also going to send out single-game showdown write-ups for each game of the World Series. I hope everyone has been enjoying the postseason so far and, of course, things are only just getting started! Game one of both National League Division Series’ start-up today (Go Braves!) alongside game two of both ALDS match-ups. Keep in mind that these games will be staggered today and the first game of the slate will get going at 2:07 ET!

This won’t be a terribly long read since there is only so much to cover across four games. Do remember that postseason baseball is much different from the regular season. Managers are often very quick to pull their starting pitchers at the slightest hint of trouble in favor of their top bullpen arms. You’re rarely going to see a game total of more than 8.0 or 8.5 runs in the playoffs, so getting the bats correct is more difficult than ever. Everyone has their own risk tolerance, but I personally limit my bankroll on postseason slates to about half of what I would normally spend on regular-season slates. During the regular season, I’m grinding MLB DFS for profits and the occasional GPP takedown. In the postseason, while winning cash is still the main goal, I mostly just play to add a bit more personal intrigue to some already enthralling high-intensity playoff games. To each their own! Without further ado, let’s get into it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Nothing to sweat here. Three of the four games are indoors and the LAD @ SF game has 0% chance of seeing any rain. There will be 10-15 mph winds blowing out to center/left in San Francisco but, remember, Oracle Park mitigates much of the wind impact which the Bay Area often provides.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL | DK: $9.1k, FD: $10.4k | vs. ATL

As much as it pains me to target my Braves, Burnes does stand out above all of these insanely good pitchers today as the arm with the most upside. The Braves had a barely above average 103 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last month while providing a high 26.8% kRate to opposing righties. Burnes ended the season red hot with an elite 40.5% kRate over his last five starts. Burnes only pitched against Atlanta once this season (July 30th) and had perhaps his worst outing of the year as he lasted only 4.0 IP across 96 pitches and allowed five earned runs on nine hits and two walks. It’s unlikely he fails his second time around against Atlanta.

Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9k | @ MIL

I believe most baseball fans would agree that, while the Brewers have an incredibly formidable pitching staff, their offense is pretty easily the weakest of any playoff team. On the season they've hit only .233 (ranked 27th) while posting a 91 wRC+ (23rd) and 24% kRate (8th highest). They didn’t really end the regular season on a high note either -- their .228 batting average since the beginning of September ranked 28th in the MLB. I’d say for around 90% of the season, Morton has been a rock solid starter regardless of who he's going up against. He isn’t the most talented pitcher on this slate, or even the most talented pitcher in this game, but he draws the most favorable match-up on the slate. Also, for the BvP believers, in 120 PA against the current Brewers roster, Morton has held them to a .174 AVG and .219 wOBA while striking out 26.7% of Milwaukee hitters. Not too shabby!

Shane Baz (RHP), TB | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.8k | vs. BOS

Perhaps it was a stroke of gamesmanship with Tampa Bay calling Baz up to the big leagues just 18 days ago… to be utilized as a 'secret' postseason weapon? Ah, who knows. The Rays were certainly in need of some starting pitching so it is no surprise to see Baz, their top overall prospect, on the postseason roster. In 10 starts and 46.0 IP at the triple-A level this year, Baz posted an extremely sharp 1.76 ERA to go along with a 2.98 xFIP, 0.85 WHIP, and a lofty 36% kRate. In a much smaller sample size since being called up (13.1 IP), those numbers have translated very well at the MLB level: 2.03 ERA, 2.86 xFIP, 0.68 WHIP, 36.7% kRate. Now, due to his lack of MLB experience and, obviously the high-stakes nature of this specific game, we can expect Baz to have a very short leash this evening. If he continues to deal as he has been, it’s certainly possible he can record 5.0+ innings of work. But if Boston even touches Baz up a moderate amount, expect Rays manager Kevin Cash to lead him off the mound early. Regardless, as the cheapest SP option on the slate who happens to have excellent strikeout upside, Baz is firmly in play.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chris Sale (LHP), BOS

The Rays offense has been a scrappy bunch all year and I believe their game one performance against Boston yesterday was a strong indication of how this series may continue to play out. Even something like Randy Arozarena stealing home shows us that Tampa Bay almost certainly did their homework on Boston LHP Josh Taylor, who was on the mound at the time. With Arozarena’s speed, the Rays likely knew the odds to successfully steal home against Taylor were favorable enough to take the risk. Again, postseason baseball is just a completely different game so stuff like that is what it takes sometimes to put runs up on the board. The Rays also have a good track record versus Sale, historically. In 121 PA against Sale, the current Rays roster is hitting .306 with a .366 wOBA. The Red Sox bullpen has also been around middle-of-the-pack over the last month as well.

Houston Astros vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

I have the utmost respect for Giolito as a pitcher but he seems to have lost a bit of his “x-factor” and has, in my mind, gone from an ace-level pitcher to simply just a “really good” pitcher. While his 3.53 ERA and 3.75 xFIP are super solid figures, they still check in as the worst metrics among today’s starters. Gio posted some concerning statcast numbers down the final stretch of the season. Meanwhile, despite various injuries to key players, Houston has held up as a dominant offense basically the entire season. Their 123 wRC+ since the start of September also checks in 2nd in the MLB.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Atlanta Braves vs. Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL

I’m mostly leaning towards BvP numbers here which, admittedly, aren’t always the best data points to fall back onto. But in 42 PA against Burnes, the Braves have hit .333 against him with a stout .443 wOBA. Over the final month of the season, Milwaukee’s bullpen was also statistically a bottom 10 relief unit and they’ll be without one of their top relievers, Devin Williams, due to a broken hand he suffered from punching a wall a little over a week ago (seriously, why is this such a common issue with pitchers?).

One-Off Bats ☝️

1B/OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB

2B Jose Altuve | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

SS Wander Franco | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Chris Sale (LHP), BOS

3B Justin Turner | DK: $4.6k, $3.1k | vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

3B Austin Riley | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL

Salary Savers 💸

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Michael Brantley | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

OF Alex Verdugo | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB

1B/2B/3B Wilmer Flores | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs.Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

OF Tyrone Taylor | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Austin Riley | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL