Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

What a wild weekend in the world of sports! If this time of year isn’t the absolute best for a sports fan, I don’t know what is. My only regret is not having more sets of eyeballs to watch everything that’s worth tuning into. Since we have all four division series match-ups going today, we’re hitting ya with another MLB newsletter. There won’t be any further four-game playoff slates scheduled after today, so enjoy it while ya can! (And here's to hoping they can actually play today out in Chicago)

This will be the final full slate MLB newsletter we send out this year but, as a reminder, we will be providing some showdown write-ups for each game of the World Series (beginning 10/26)! Enjoy the MLB action today and do remember, if you’re looking to play this four-game slate, the first match-up will begin at 1:07 ET!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

🚨HOU @ CWS (3:37 ET, O/U TBD):🚨 There is some legitimate concern here in Chicago. It looks like they’ll have to contend with some rainstorms which may bring some lightning into play as well. This is an afternoon game so in many situations, a lengthy ‘delay and play’ could be in the cards. However, the forecast doesn’t really appear to clear up until around 10 PM local time. On top of this, stiff sustained winds around 20 mph will be blowing in from center. It would not surprise me in the least if they opt to push this game back to tomorrow, which will provide far more favorable weather conditions.

Note: While I hate to cut out an entire game when only four are in play on the slate, for the sake of this newsletter, I am leaning towards avoiding any mention of players from this match-up. We should know much more on this situation in a few hours.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Scherzer (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.9k | vs. SF

Scherzer has undoubtedly not performed like his usual dominant self over his last few starts but, if history has shown us anything, he can turn it on at any moment. In 122 PA versus this Giants roster, Scherzer has held them to a .168 AVG and .259 wOBA while striking out 38.5% of San Fran batters. While Scherzer was pulled after only 4.1 innings of work in the Wild Card game last Wednesday, he still threw a healthy 94 pitches. The Giants offense has been dominant against RHPs with a league-best 128 wRC+ since the start of September. But this is playoffs, baby, and the Dodgers are heavy -200 favorites going into tonight, playing in their home ballpark. One would expect Mad Max to have something to prove after showing some indifference towards being pulled off the mound early last week.

Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.2k | vs. MIL

I believe most would agree that the Brewers continue to possess the least intimidating offense in the playoffs. They’re hitting only .232 with an 85 wRC+ versus RHPs since September 1st and have only managed three runs through the first two games of this series. Anderson looked very sharp down the stretch of the regular season -- across his final four starts (23.2 IP), Anderson acquired a 3.42 ERA, 3.78 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, 28% kRate, and a .176 opp AVG/.273 opp wOBA. He did give up five home runs in that stretch, which is where the majority of run damage came against him. Fortunately, for him, the Brewers ranked inside the bottom 10 with a .146 ISO vs. RHPs since the start of September and their 22 home runs ranked them 22nd in the MLB in that span as well. Anderson has also been better when pitching at home this season. His 0.88 HR/9 Rate at home in 2021 is hardly a poor stat line.

Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), BOS | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.4k | vs. TB

The Red Sox can punch their ticket to the ALCS with a win over Tampa Bay today. After a 13-inning marathon yesterday, both bullpens head into tonight in depleted conditions. Even Nick Pivetta, who was originally penciled in as today’s starter, was forced into action yesterday and threw 67 pitches across four innings. The expectation is that Boston will be relying heavily on a combination of ERod and Chris Sale (out of the bullpen) in this game. Rodriguez is pitching on just four days rest but he didn’t have his best stuff last Thursday which led to him only tossing 41 pitches. The Rays are excellent against lefty pitching so holding them in check is going to be a big ask from Rodriguez. But, with limited options, he stands out as an intriguing value arm against a Rays team that does often provides a high amount of strikeouts.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Boston Red Sox vs. To Be Announced, TB

The Rays were forced to eat even further into their bullpen than Boston in yesterday’s 13-inning game. I could end up being completely wrong here, but my guess is that they’ll try to get a few innings out of LHP Shane McClanahan, who would be pitching on four days rest. McClanahan threw 82 pitches last Thursday but that’s been his normal workload for pretty much the entire season. With limited options and this being an elimination game for the Rays, they really don’t have many other routes to take here. The Red Sox have racked up 20 runs over their last two games and will get to bat in the best hitting environment on the slate. I believe riding the hot bats against a drained Rays pitching staff makes plenty of sense on this short playoff slate.

Atlanta Braves vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL

Peralta has not pitched in a game since Sept. 26th. His first taste of MLB action in over two weeks will test him immediately in what will be a high-pressure playoff scenario on the road. After an incredible 2021 campaign, Peralta did look a bit unlike himself at times since returning from a shoulder injury that he suffered back in August. In the 23.0 IP since returning from that injury, Peralta acquired a lackluster 4.70 ERA and a 1.60 HR/9 Rate. I don’t believe it’s overly likely he gets blown up, but I do imagine the Braves can find some moderate success against him if he comes out with some rust to shake off. Hits and runs don’t often come easy in the postseason and Peralta will be supported by some great Milwaukee relievers. But the Braves have some capable power hitters all throughout their lineup which ranked 2nd in the MLB with a .224 ISO vs. RHPs going back to the start of September.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), LAD

Despite his recent struggles, Scherzer is pretty likely to be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate. In return, that should place low ownership on most Giants bats (by four-game slate standards). As mentioned above, the Giants did post a league-leading 128 wRC+ versus RHPs since the start of September alongside a .277 AVG (1st), .360 wOBA (2nd), and .204 ISO (5th). They can simply be an incredibly pesky team to put away. I would consider running some 2-to-4 man Giants stacks if you’re looking for some small slate GPP leverage.

One-Off Bats ☝️

SS/2B Trea Turner | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Alex Wood (LHP), SF

1B/OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. TBA, TB

SS Wander Franco | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), BOS

C/1B Buster Posey | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), LAD

3B Austin Riley | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL

Salary Savers 💸

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B/3B Yandy Diaz | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), BOS

1B Rowdy Tellez | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL

OF Eddie Rosario | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL

2B Christian Arroyo | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.1k | vs. TBA, TB

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B/OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.4k | vs. TBA, TB