Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

🔊 10/1 On Deck Podcast w/ KC Bubba & Scott Bogman

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Welcome back for the final regular-season edition of the LineStar Daily Ledger! After such a long, grinding season and around 120 MLB newsletters written, this is always a bittersweet time of year! I would like to extend a major “thank you” to everyone who has been reading these newsletters throughout the season along with all of the subscribers who hang out and joke around in the LineStar chat, making these slates even more fun. We do plan on providing some postseason content. Currently, we’ll be looking to send out an MLB newsletter on days where there are four games being played and we’ll also be looking to return for the World Series with some single game showdown content. We’re open to feedback on this as well.

For now, we have one last massive Friday slate to tackle with 14 games waiting in the wings this evening. Let’s close out the season on a high note! Good luck!

MLB Playoff Standings

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

We’ll see nearly pristine conditions on this massive 14-game slate with only a couple of games in jeopardy of running into problems..

MIN @ KC (8:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Low-coverage rainstorms in the area will present slight delay risk.

CHC @ STL (8:15, O/U TBD): Things could be a bit sloppy here with moderate rain chances before, during, and after the three hour window in which this game is scheduled to play. It’s currently expected that they’ll be able to get this game in but do be aware of the current delay risk. I’d say run a final check on this forecast prior to lock.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9k | @ MIA

It feels like a good slate to live more towards the mid-range when it comes to starting pitchers. Suarez has been nothing but steady across the last five weeks. He’s really made an excellent transition from bullpen reliever to starting rotation pitcher -- a journey that began in early August. Across his last seven starts (44.0 IP), Suarez has pitched his way to an incredible 1.43 ERA which is backed up by a strong 3.10 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, 26.5% kRate, 52.6% Ground Ball Rate, 0.20 HR/9 Rate and .217 AVG/.234 wOBA. Simply dominant numbers. For his final start of the season, he’ll get perhaps the best match-up a lefty could ask for right now. Over the last month versus LHPs, Miami has a league-worst .182 AVG, .238 wOBA, .105 ISO, and 50 wRC% -- so, take your average MLB offense (e.g. the Nationals have a 100 wRC+ vs. LHPs during that same span) and the Marlins have been 50% *worse* at producing runs. I wouldn’t be surprised if Suarez is the highest owned pitcher on the slate, but he’s a tough play to pass on.

Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.1k | vs. LAA

Marco isn’t really the sort of pitcher I usually target in DFS but I’ll make an exception today. His 18.3% kRate stinks, and he’s facing an Angels team that has only struck out 18.2% of the time versus lefties across the last month. But LAA is also hitting only .232 in that stretch with a fairly low .298 wOBA, .133 ISO, and 88 wRC+. The real appeal of Gonzales today is the hope that he can eat up 7.0+ innings of work. He’s averaging just under 100 pitches/gm over his last five starts and has routinely gone six or seven innings deep and did throw a complete game back on August 12th. Seattle is in a dead heat with Boston for the second AL Wild Card bid. A lack of motivation should be a non-issue for Gonzales and the Mariners tonight. They’ll step foot on the diamond in front of their home crowd as solid -165 favorites while the Angels carry a low 3.3 implied run total.

Dakota Hudson (RHP), STL | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.5k | vs. CHC

*Watch out for weather concerns in this game

Taking much more of a risk with Hudson here as he looks to make his first official start of the MLB season after the completion of his rehab from Tommy John surgery. Against this same Cubs team last Friday, Hudson threw 61 pitches across 3.2 innings of bulk relief, allowing 4 H, 0 BB, 2 ER, 2 K, and ended up qualifying for the win. It wasn’t a pretty outing but also wasn’t terrible… perhaps he improves a bit more today. Hudson covered five innings in each of his last two rehab starts in the minor leagues so we could probably expect him to hit around 80+ pitches as the Cardinals look to have him stretched out heading into their potential playoff run (assuming they get past the Dodgers or Giants in the NL Wild Card game). If you played much of MLB DFS this season, you’re aware how strikeout-prone the Cubs have been. Not much has changed. They’re still rocking a 27.2% kRate vs. RHPs over the last month, the 2nd highest strikeout rate in the MLB behind only the Marlins. They are hitting the ball well in that same span (.275 AVG, .353 wOBA, .208 ISO, 119 wRC+) which adds more risk on Hudson. But he’ll be worth a shot in contrarian GPP lineup builds. Historically, he has pitched better at home in Busch Stadium where he has a career 2.49 ERA (4.05 ERA on the road).

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Some of the more obvious teams to give stack consideration to based on appealing match-ups and implied Vegas run totals:

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Thomas Eshelman (RHP), BAL

> TOR: 5.9 implied runs, leads the slate

> Eshelman: 7.20 ERA, 6.28 xFIP, 1.64 WHIP, .381 opp wOBA

> When in doubt, attacking the O’s pitching staff often pans out

> TOR vs. BAL this season: .307 AVG, .395 wOBA, .248 ISO, 150 wRC+

> TOR: Nearing “must-win” territory sitting one game back from SEA/BOS for the second AL Wild Card bid with three games to play

Chicago White Sox vs. Wily Peralta (RHP), DET

> CWS: 4.9 implied runs

> CWS: 6.5 runs/gm over their last four

> CWS: 118 wRC+ L2Wks

> Peralta: solid 3.08 ERA which is backed up by a poor 4.92 xFIP

> CWS in 58 PA vs. Peralta: .358 AVG, .424 wOBA, 10.2% kRate

> DET Bullpen: Ranks bottom five over the last 30 days

Secondary Stacks ✌️

Boston Red Sox vs. Josh Rogers (LHP), WAS

> BOS: 5.3 implied runs

> BOS: 119 wRC+ L2Wks

> Rogers: his 2.73 ERA is thinly veiled by a poor 5.57 xFIP (due for regression)

> Rogers vs. RHBs: .376 wOBA, 6.07 xFIP, 2.25 HR/9

> WAS Bullpen Last 30 Days: 6.16 ERA, 4.89 xFIP, 1.70 WHIP, 1.82 HR/9 (all bottom 10 metrics)

> BOS: Fighting for postseason life

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), SD

> LAD: 4.6 implied runs

> LAD: 17 HRs over the last week with a league-best 145 wRC+

> Lauer: Honestly, he’s been rock solid and has historically pitched well against the Dodgers. He is showing some concerning Statcast data, however (bottom 20% in avg exit Velo & bottom 10% in avg distance in last 30 days)

> LAD: If they can knock Lauer out early, they’ll face an SD bullpen that has a 5.24 ERA, 4.92 xFIP, and 1.72 HR/9 Rate over the last month -- all bottom five metrics

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA

> Not super sneaky but, on a 14-game slate, they should carry low ownership

> SEA: Fighting for their postseason life

> SEA in 72 PA vs. Suarez: .281 AVG, .367 wOBA, 18.1% kRate

> Angels Bullpen Last 30 Days: Checks in bottom 10 in most key metrics

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF Luis Robert | DK: $5.8k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Wily Peralta (RHP), DET

SS Bo Bichette | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4k | vs. Thomas Eshelman (RHP), BAL

SS Corey Seager | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4k | vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), SD

1B Freddie Freeman | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Jon Heasley (RHP), KC

2B/SS Gleyber Torres | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Huascar Ynoa (RHP), ATL

Salary Savers 💸

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B/OF Frank Schwindel | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.7k | Dakota Hudson (RHP), STL

2B/OF Ian Happ | DK: $3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), STL

OF Jose Siri | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), OAK

OF Kole Calhoun | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Jon Gray (RHP), COL

3B/SS Santiago Espinal | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Thomas Eshelman (RHP), BAL

OF Willie Calhoun | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Eli Morgan (RHP), CLE

2B/3B Matt Duffy | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), STL

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Jon Heasley (RHP), KC

Home run potential aside, you won’t find many hitters who are crushing the stat sheet as hard as Buxton has been recently. He’s averaging 17 DKFP/23.7 FDFP over the last week and has hit four homers in his last 20 at-bats, including two last night. A healthy Byron Buxton is just a straight-up problem for opposing pitchers. Jon Heasley is making just his third MLB start so there’s not much of a sample size to go off of with him, but he did struggle with a 1.54 HR/9 Rate across 105.1 IP in double-A ball this year and gave up a couple of home run blasts in his MLB debut a couple of weeks ago against Seattle. Even if Buxton doesn’t happen to go yard, he should continue to produce elsewhere in the box score.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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