Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

The Braves couldn’t close things out over the weekend in Atlanta so the World Series now travels back to Houston for game six and (if necessary) game seven! Unfortunately, I was too busy to send out World Series newsletters over the weekend for games four and five, so before we get into some plays to consider tonight, let’s run through a quick recap of the perfect lineups from the last three games:

Game 3: In a game that ended with a score of 2-0 with eight combined hits, to no surprise we see a very pitcher-centric perfect lineup with hurlers occupying 4-of-6 spots -- both starters and two Braves relievers. Of course, the games between these two highly capable offenses are more often than not going to produce a good number of hits and runs but if you’re going into these single game slates with the intention of building around 20+ lineups, keep the “pitcher-heavy” builds in mind!

Game 4: A 4-2 Houston stack ended up at the optimal route in this one, despite the Braves winning 3-2 thanks to back-to-back solo shots in the 7th inning from Swanson and Soler (pinch hit). While I am continuing to stay on board with the strategy to use relief pitchers, banking on a big hit from a pinch hitter is too contrarian for my blood and obviously no one should have been expected to play Soler since he wasn’t in the starting lineup. Of course, now that the series returns to Houston, the DH is back in play so this isn’t really much of a worry for tonight’s game either way. Houston continues to rely on the bat and production from Jose Altuve, and he has now landed as the optimal captain twice this series.

Game 5: Atlanta squandered a 1st inning grand slam from Adam Duvall and proceeded to get outscored 9-1 through the remainder of the game. This led to a 5-1 Houston (batters only) stack being the optimal route to take with Duvall slotted in at captain. This was the first time in the series where a pitcher (starter or reliever) didn’t at least come away as a perfect lineup FLEX play.

Note: These WS newsletters will be geared towards DraftKings MLB single-game DFS contests -- GPPs, specifically. Plenty of information below should be helpful for building FanDuel lineups as well, but the overall format and pricing differences between FD and DK simply don’t allow for an all-inclusive article to cover the single-game slate for both sites sufficiently.

Two major differences exist between DK and FD single-game MLB contests:

1. FanDuel doesn’t include pitchers within the player pool, DraftKings does (both starting pitchers and relievers)

2. FanDuel doesn’t adjust salaries for its “MVP (2x Points)” and “Star (1.5x Points)” roster positions. DraftKings does adjust salaries by 1.5x for its “Captain (1.5x Points)” roster position.

Alright, let’s jump into some plays to consider for game six!

General Single Game MLB DFS Strategy

As many baseball fans know, postseason games can play out much differently than a regular-season game would. Managers are much less hesitant to pull their starters at the first sign of trouble and hitters also adjust their strategy and approach at the plate given their situation in postseason at-bats. As to how that transfers to single game DFS lineup construction on DraftKings, it means we’re almost always going to use the captain slot on a hitter instead of a starting pitcher. The starting pitchers will often be at, or near, the very top of DFS pricing and will not come away as the optimal captain play all too often. As you can see in the perfect lineups from the six ALCS and six NLCS games (pictured below), only once was a pitcher the optimal captain selection (Luis Garcia, ALCS Game 6). For that reason, I’m almost always going to recommend playing a hitter at the captain for DraftKings GPPs.

You’ll also notice in the perfect lineups from the ALCS/NLCS that relief pitchers often came away as optimal FLEX plays. Playing a reliever in your lineups is very much a high risk/high reward approach, but I will be sure to include a few relievers towards the end of these newsletters that could be worth considering.

Perfect DraftKings Lineups from the ALCS/NLCS

Captains & Core FLEX Plays:

Jose Altuve, HOU | $10,200 (CPT: $15,300)

The Astros go as Altuve goes and, as mentioned above, he has already cracked two perfect lineups this series as the optimal captain selection. Max Fried took a few innings to settle in when he started game two. If he follows a similar path tonight, Altuve may be one of the Astro bats that takes advantage.

Jorge Soler, ATL | $7,600 (CPT: $11,400)

Soler has already had two incredibly big momentum swinging home runs in this series (game one and game four) and won’t break the bank if you roll with him as captain. The Braves have shaken up their lineup a bit with a struggling Ozzie Albies moving from 3rd to 7th in the order leaving room for Soler to move up the 2nd as the DH. Soler almost always has one thing in mind when he’s at the plate, and that’s to go yard. If he gets his pitch, he’s not a bad bet to go deep once again tonight.

Austin Riley, ATL | $8,000 (CPT: $12,000)

Riley is getting the bat on the ball and is putting it in play quite a bit while making some high exit velocity contact, but he hasn’t mashed the big hit out yet this series. I’m going with a less statistically driven approach with these picks today and more with a gut feeling. While nothing is easily prognosticated in the sport of baseball, Riley seems like he’s due for a monster performance either today or (if necessary) tomorrow’s game seven.

Others Captains to Consider: Freddie Freeman ($10,400 - CPT: $15,600), Kyle Tucker ($9,800 - CPT: $14,700), Yuli Gurriel ($7,800 -- CPT: $14,700)

FLEX Plays & Leverage Captain Options:

Note: All players highlighted above (and listed in the “Other Captains to Consider” section) fall into this category as well.

Max Fried, ATL | $10,600 (CPT: $15,900)

If the Braves want to win this game, they’ll need five or six strong innings out of Fried. While his game two start wasn’t abysmal, it wasn’t great… though he did settle in across his later innings. Fried adjusted his pitch selection following a four-run second inning in game two and, at one point, retired 10 Astros in a row. He dialed back on the fast balls (four-seamer and sinker) and utilized more breaking balls (see image below) which led to some Ks and a decent amount of outs and, ultimately, he helped spare the bullpen (which was needed following the loss of Charlie Morton to injury in game one). Will Fried and the Braves take a similar approach from the get-go tonight? Time will tell. But if I’m targeting a starting pitcher in this game, I’d lean Fried considering Luis Garcia will be pitching on short rest.

Michael Brantley, HOU | $6,600 (CPT: $9,900)

Brantley isn’t likely to send one over the fence but his spot high in the order (2nd) and pure ability to simply hit and get on base will make him an appealing value FLEX option at $6,600. With the hitters he has around him, he’s usually going to have a couple RBI and run-scoring opportunities each game. Brantley also came away as an optimal FLEX play in both of the first two games of this World Series which, of course, were played in Houston where they return tonight.

Eddie Rosario, ATL | $5,800 (CPT: $8,700)

Rosario has lost a bit of the magic that he had in the NLCS but he’s still carrying a .411 AVG to the plate this postseason with a 198 wRC+. He continues to be underpriced on DraftKings and will be hitting out of the lead-off spot this evening.

Others FLEX Plays to Consider: Adam Duvall ($7,200 - CPT: $10,800), Yordan Alvarez ($9,400 - CPT: $14,700), Jose Siri ($4,000 - CPT: $6,000)

Relief Pitcher Dart Throws 🎯 (GPP FLEX Only):

As mentioned above, it’s not all too uncommon for a relief pitcher to show up as an optimal FLEX play in the perfect lineup, especially in the postseason where bullpens are often used judiciously and with more consistency than the regular season. You may only hope to get a handful of fantasy points out of a relief pitcher, but given their price points and potential for lower scoring games, that may be all you need in order for them to come away as an optimal play.

Note: This is obviously very risky and probably not an approach that should be utilized if you’re only rolling out less than a handful of lineups. Depending on the game script, certain relievers mentioned below may not even step foot on the mound tonight.

Tyler Matzek, ATL | $4,000

Luke Jackson, ATL | $4,000

Ryan Pressly, HOU | $4,000

Ryne Stanek, HOU | $4,000

Good luck tonight guys and enjoy the World Series!