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- LineStar® Daily Ledger - World Series Game #5 | MLB DFS Strategy & Plays! 🏆
LineStar® Daily Ledger - World Series Game #5 | MLB DFS Strategy & Plays! 🏆
Top DFS Plays & Strategy for Wednesday's World Series Game Five!
Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat
The D-Backs didn’t go out without a fight but, ultimately, a pair of five-run frames in the 2nd and 3rd innings from the Rangers proved to be too much to overcome in an eventual 11-7 game four decision. Texas now has the chance to finish the job by becoming 2023 World Series champs with a game-five win tonight. We’ll have a re-match on the mound between both game one starters, Nathan Eovaldi and Zac Gallen. The drama is real and the D-Backs will need to play mistake-free baseball from here on out if they wish to keep their World Series hopes alive! The Rangers will be without OF Adolis Garcia and SP Max Scherzer for the remainder of this series -- the former of which is the major blow to the Rangers’ offensive firepower. Onto game five we go!
Note: Today’s WS newsletter will be a bit abbreviated due to time constraints. And, should the Rangers win tonight, cheers to a fun (and hopefully profitable) 2023 MLB season! See you guys either for game six on Friday (if the D-Backs can get it done tonight) or in about five months for the 2024 MLB season!
For a quick rundown on MLB showdown tips and strategy, feel free to refer back to the top segments from the game one newsletter.
Note: These WS newsletters will be geared towards DraftKings MLB single-game DFS contests – GPPs, specifically. Plenty of information below should be helpful for building FanDuel lineups as well, but the overall format and pricing differences between FD and DK simply don’t allow for an all-inclusive article to cover the single-game slate for both sites sufficiently.
Two major differences exist between DK and FD single-game MLB contests:
1. FanDuel doesn’t include pitchers within the player pool, DraftKings does (both starting pitchers and relievers).
2. FanDuel doesn’t adjust salaries for its “MVP (2x Points)” and “Star (1.5x Points)” roster positions. DraftKings does adjust salaries by 1.5x for its “Captain (1.5x Points)” roster position.
Perfect DraftKings Lineups Through Four Games
Captains & Core FLEX Plays:
Corey Seager, TEX | $9,800 (CPT: $14,700)
Seager just continues to mash -- four home runs in the past five games. Arizona keeps pitching to him, for some reason. They may finally choose to pitch around Seager tonight and just let the rest of the Rangers lineup (this is without Adolis Garcia) try to beat them. For now, he remains a go-to captain option and he’s rocking a 200 wRC+ in this postseason. Essentially, Seager has been worth two league-average players by himself in these playoffs.
Marcus Semien, TEX | $8,800 (CPT: $13,200)
Semien hasn’t necessarily been “awful” in the playoffs but, prior to yesterday’s game, he was failing to have any significant impact out of the lead-off spot. That all changed with a game four performance where Semien opened things up with a 2nd inning two-RBI triple which he then followed up with a 3-RBI home run in the very next inning. Based on his regular season tendencies, Semien’s big games often come in quick succession of one another so we’ll see if he keeps the big bat rolling tonight.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI | $6,200 (CPT: $9,300)
Gurriel has been arguably the most productive D-Backs hitter across the last several games. He picked up two hits, including a homer, and four RBI last night. He now either has a homer, multiple hits, or both in four of the previous six games. Gurriel also owns some strong BvP history against Rangers’ starter Nathan Eovaldi. In 20 career at-bats versus Eovaldi, Gurriel has hi .350 with a .447 wOBA, .300 ISO, and a pair of home runs.
Other Captains & Core FLEX Plays to Consider
Nathan Eovaldi, TEX | $11,400 (CPT: $17,100)
Ketel Marte, ARI | $9,400 (CPT: $14,100)
Evan Carter, TEX | $8,400 (CPT: $12,600)
FLEX Plays & Leverage Captain Options:
Mitch Garver, TEX | $7,000 (CPT: $10,500)
Garver gets the nod as the Rangers’ clean-up man, batting 4th in the order tonight. He went 0-for-4 with a walk and three Ks in last night’s match-up, but having that clean-up spot behind three capable hitters (Semien, Seager, Carter) will provide Garver with some strong RBI upside. He’s been quiet in the last couple of games but he’s rocking a .221 ISO in the playoffs and has 13 RBI in 13 games. Garver has also had some previous success against Zac Gallen, albeit in a small sample size (2-for-7 with an HR and .375 OBP).
Tommy Pham, ARI | $6,600 (CPT: $9,900)
Pham contributed a hit and an RBI yesterday and, generally, he’s been very productive out of the five hole. He has nine hits in the last six games, five of which have gone for extra bases (three doubles, two home runs). Pham also homered off of Eovaldi in game one and has a career .375 AVG against him. He appeared as an optimal FLEX play across the first three games of this World Series.
Travis Jankowski, TEX | $5,200 (CPT: $7,800)
Jankowski is the second-cheapest hitter in this game and will continue to fill in in place of the injured Adolis Garcia. He contributed in a big way yesterday, going 2-for-4 with a double, two runs, and two RBI. He’s also a stolen base threat and stole 19 bases in 107 regular season games this year. Jankowski will bat 9th and try to turn the lineup over to the big hitters at the top of the Rangers order. If you need a value bat, he’s a go-to option in this one.
Other FLEX/Contrarian Captain Plays to Consider
Zac Gallen, ARI | $11,600 (CPT: $17,400)
Gabriel Moreno, ARI | $6,800 (CPT: $10,200)
Geraldo Perdomo, ARI | $5,800 (CPT: $8,700)
Relief Pitcher Dart Throws (GPP FLEX Plays Only):
As mentioned above, it’s not uncommon for a relief pitcher to show up as an optimal FLEX play in the perfect lineup, especially in the postseason where bullpens are often used judiciously and with more consistency than the regular season. You may only hope to get a handful of fantasy points out of a relief pitcher, but given their lower DFS price points and the potential for lower-scoring games in a World Series atmosphere, that may be all you need in order for them to come away as an optimal play.
This is obviously very risky and probably not an approach that should be utilized if you’re only rolling out one or two lineups.
Note: You will need to unselect “Remove Non Probables” to view relief pitching options on DraftKings.
Game Five Bullpen Notes: Since the D-Backs were playing from behind all game yesterday, they did not burn their best relievers (Ginkel, Sewald, Thompson) so, if you’re throwing any darts with relievers today, I would side with those top three Arizona guys out of the bullpen. Besides, Arizona can’t afford to lose this game so I imagine they’ll be quick to turn to their premiere bullpen arms at the first sign of major trouble. The Rangers did end up using six relief pitchers yesterday, primarily late in the game when Arizona was doing their best to mount a comeback. However, they didn’t have to burn top reliever Josh Sborz or Aroldis Chapman. Closer Jose Leclerc did come in and throw 10 pitches and has now pitched the last two days (26 total pitches). I imagine he’ll still be available for any save situation, but Sborz would be my favorite Rangers reliever if you’re looking to go there.
Top D-Backs Relievers
Kevin Ginkel, ARI | $4,000
Paul Sewald, ARI | $4,000 (Closer)
Ryan Thompson, ARI | $4,000
Top Rangers Relievers
Josh Sborz, TEX | $4,000
Jose Leclerc, TEX | $4,000 (Closer)
Aroldis Chapman, TEX | $4,000
Good luck and enjoy the World Series!