Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

The Phillies had no regard for Lance McCullers Jr.'s well-being last night. They absolutely teed off on him to the tune of five home runs en route to a lopsided 7-0 game three victory. Was he tipping his pitches? It's been a hot debate in the baseball world today, but we now set our sights on game four. The Astros now sit behind the eight ball, and they will look to avoid dropping to a 3-1 series deficit and one loss away from World Series elimination. Before we get into today’s strategy and plays, let’s get a quick look at the perfect lineups from the first three games of the series:

To no surprise, a 5-1 Phillies stack made up last night’s perfect lineup, and the lone Astros player to check in as an optimal play was relief pitcher Ryne Stanek. If you can ever predict those sorts of blowout game scripts, a 5-1 stack remains a strong GPP strategy on these single-game slates and utilizing a relief pitcher also continues to be a viable GPP approach. Due to the blowout factor, both bullpens had no reason to roll out their top relief pitchers last night so, assuming we get a competitive game tonight, be sure to keep RPs like Seranthony Dominguez and Bryan Abreu in mind for DFS lineups tonight!

For some quick tips on single-game MLB DFS strategy, feel free to refer back to the info provided in the World Series Game #1 newsletter.

Note: These WS newsletters will be geared towards DraftKings MLB single-game DFS contests – GPPs, specifically. Plenty of information below should help build FanDuel lineups as well, but the overall format and pricing differences between FD and DK simply don’t allow for an all-inclusive article to cover the single-game slate for both sites sufficiently.

Two major differences exist between DK and FD single-game MLB contests:

1. FanDuel doesn’t include pitchers within the player pool; DraftKings does (both starting pitchers and relievers)

2. FanDuel doesn’t adjust salaries for its “MVP (2x Points)” and “Star (1.5x Points)” roster positions. DraftKings adjust salaries by 1.5x for its “Captain (1.5x Points)” roster position.

Captains & Core FLEX Plays:

Bryce Harper, PHI | $10,000 (CPT: $15,000)

Harper has to be in captain consideration for the remainder of this World Series. After losing an 11-game hit streak in game two (0-for-4, 1 K), Harper led the home run charge with a first-inning two-run shot off of Lance McCullers Jr. last night. Harper’s insane 2022 postseason numbers now look like this: .382 AVG, .515 wOBA, .436 ISO, 238 wRC+ with 6 HR, 13 RBI, and 12 R. Absolutely bonkers. He’ll face a heavy strikeout specialist in RHP Cristian Javier tonight but it is worth noting that Javier’s kRate goes from 38.8% against RHBs to 27.9% against LHBs (like Harper). Harper also has just a 17.6% kRate vs. RHPs this season and Javier is known for giving up quite a bit of hard contact when he’s unable to strike out a batter.

Kyle Schwarber, PHI | $9,400 (CPT: $14,100)

Schwarber has also had a stellar postseason for the Phillies but he’s been a bit overshadowed by Harper’s ludicrous performances. Schwarber’s numbers from these 14 postseason games: .222 AVG, .366 wOBA, .267 ISO, 136 wRC+ with 4 HR, 6 RBI, and 8 R. Obviously, Schwarbs is not hitting for a great average but four of his 10 postseason hits have left the ballpark. 36 of Schwarber’s 46 home runs this season have come at the expense of RHPs and he has a monstrous 26.5% HR/FB Rate against righties. As mentioned above with Harper, Javier’s strikeout rate declines against LHBs (like Schwarber) and he has allowed a high 54.1% Flyball% to LHBs this season. If Schwarber gets under one against Javier, we could witness another Schwarbomb.

Kyle Tucker, HOU | $9,200 (CPT: $13,800)

The Astros find themselves in what is nearly a must-win game and I would not expect them to go down without a fight. While Houston was unable to hang on for the win, it was Tucker that was the catalyst to their offense in game one where he blasted a pair of home runs with four RBI. Tucker has hit for a strong .306 AVG against RHPs on the road this season and he has homered off of Aaron Nola before. Nola also just hasn’t looked himself in his last two postseason starts (9.0 IP, 13 H, 4 HR, 11 ER) so if his struggles continue, Tucker is one of the more likely candidates to do some damage against him.

Other Captains & Core FLEX Plays to Consider:

Yordan Alvarez, HOU | $9,600 (CPT: $14,400)

Jeremy Pena, HOU | $8,600 (CPT: $12,900)

FLEX Plays & Leverage Captain Options:

Cristian Javer, HOU | $11,200 (CPT: $16,800)

With both teams’ top relievers being fresh, I believe we should tread carefully when it comes to rostering the starting pitchers tonight. As usual, both SPs check in as the most expensive players on the slate. With that in mind, I do prefer Javier over Nola in this match-up. Javier posted an elite 33.2% kRate this season and in his lone start this postseason (Oct. 22nd @ NYY) he threw 5.1 one-hit innings with five strikeouts and he earned the win. It was a performance good for 23.6 DKFP. Several Phillies bats are on fire heading into this game but I do like Javier’s chances of pitching around five strong innings while racking up 5-to-8 strikeouts along the way.

Alex Bregman, HOU | $8,800 (CPT: $13,200)

Bregman has had a terrific postseason where, in 10 games, he is hitting .293 with a .401 wOBA, .293 ISO, and167 wRC+. He has struck out just four times in 41 postseason at-bats this year, leading to a basement-level 8.9% kRate. He has home run power and will have multi-RBI upside as he bats clean-up tonight.

Alec Bohm, PHI | $7,200 (CPT: $10,800)

Bohm took an interesting spot in the history books last night. His second-inning solo blast in game three was the 1,000th home run hit in World Series history. That propelled Bohm into the perfect lineup for the third consecutive game, making him the only player to appear in all three World Series perfect lineups. His overall postseason performance has been rather “so-so” but he has picked a great time to start heating up. He is still cheap enough to where he doesn’t necessarily need to hit a home run or multiple XBH. Another double with one or two RBI or runs scored could be enough to give him a strong chance at cracking the optimal lineup once again.

Other FLEX/Contrarian Captain Plays to Consider:

Yuli Gurriel, HOU | $7,600 (CPT: $11,400)

Brandon Marsh, PHI | $6,000 (CPT: $9,000)

Relief Pitcher Wildcards (GPP FLEX Plays Only):

As mentioned above, it’s not uncommon for a relief pitcher to show up as an optimal FLEX play in the perfect lineup, especially in the postseason where bullpens are often used judiciously and with more consistency than the regular season. You may only hope to get a handful of fantasy points out of a relief pitcher, but given their lower DFS price points and the potential for lower-scoring games, that may be all you need in order for them to come away as an optimal play.

This is obviously very risky and probably not an approach that should be utilized if you’re only rolling out less than a handful of lineups.

Neither team’s top bullpen arms have pitched since Saturday so they’ll be well-rested coming into game four. Barring another early blowout, at least three or four of the guys listed below should make an appearance tonight. Dominguez and Abreu are the most likely candidates to pitch more than one inning.

Seranthony Dominguez, PHI | $4,000

Bryan Abreu, HOU | $4,000

Ryan Pressly, HOU | $4,000

Jose Alvarado, PHI | $4,000

David Robertson, PHI | $4,000

Good luck tonight guys and enjoy the World Series!