Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

The World Series heads to Phoenix for game three with the series tied 1-1! The Diamondbacks have stolen home-field advantage from the Rangers by splitting the first two games in Texas and now we’ll have a pivotal game three to look forward to tonight! The pitching match-up is an intriguing one. Grizzled veteran Max Scherzer takes the mound for the Rangers and will face off with rookie Brandon Pfaadt. Scherzer has failed to impress in his two 2023 postseason starts, rocking a 9.45 ERA through 6.2 innings of work. He made it through just 2.2 innings in his ALCS start against the Astros last Monday but will look to bounce back tonight. Meanwhile, Pfaadt has exceeded all expectations with a 2.70 ERA in 16.2 IP this postseason. The D-Backs have won in all four of his starts, which is a trend they’ll hope to continue this evening. This may not be the World Series match-up that the more casual baseball fans hoped for but I personally find it to be an incredible match-up between two teams that have found success in different, and exciting ways.

We’ll hammer out a quick newsletter for those of you dabbling in the showdown contests tonight. For a quick rundown on MLB showdown tips and strategy, feel free to refer back to the top segments from the game one newsletter.

Note: These WS newsletters will be geared towards DraftKings MLB single-game DFS contests – GPPs, specifically. Plenty of information below should be helpful for building FanDuel lineups as well, but the overall format and pricing differences between FD and DK simply don’t allow for an all-inclusive article to cover the single-game slate for both sites sufficiently.

Two major differences exist between DK and FD single-game MLB contests:

1. FanDuel doesn’t include pitchers within the player pool, DraftKings does (both starting pitchers and relievers).

2. FanDuel doesn’t adjust salaries for its “MVP (2x Points)” and “Star (1.5x Points)” roster positions. DraftKings does adjust salaries by 1.5x for its “Captain (1.5x Points)” roster position.

Let’s quickly look back at the perfect (DraftKings) lineups from games one and two of this World Series:

While Merrill Kelly pitched a gem in game two, we’ll still want to lean toward hitters as our captain selections. And, if you’re feeling very risky, relief pitchers remain in play as FLEX fliers. We saw at least one reliever pop up as an optimal play in 8-of-14 LCS games and Rangers’ closer Jose Leclerc hit the optimal in game one of the WS. Also, it’s much more likely that we’ll see a 4-2 or 5-1 stack finish as the optimal approach, as opposed to a 3-3 balanced lineup. These are just small reminders to think about when building lineups for game three!

After also covering NBA and Monday Night Football today, I’ll try to keep things short in this newsletter to get this out as soon as possible. Let’s get into it, shall we?

Captains & Core FLEX Plays:

Corey Seager, TEX | $9,800 (CPT: $14,700)

Seager went 0-for-4 in game two but nothing was really clicking for a potent Rangers offense that mustered just one run on four hits. Sometimes you just run into a buzzsaw and Merrill Kelly (7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 1 ER, 9 K) was the buzzsaw on Saturday. It shouldn’t take away from Seager’s marvelous postseason that he has going -- in 14 games, he is hitting .302 with a .456 OBP, .447 wOBA, .321 ISO, and 188 wRC+. Rookie right-handed sensation Brandon Pfaadt has been lights out this postseason and, for the most part, he does own neutral splits. However, he has allowed a touch more power to left-handed hitters this season and Seager has dominated RHPs all year (.448 wOBA, .338 ISO, 183 wRC+). Seager has also found plenty of success at the plate in this ballpark. In 45 career games at Chase Field, Seager has hit .298 with a .397 wOBA, .257 ISO, and 151 wRC+ while striking out just 15.7% of the time. Out of his 51 career hits at Chase Field, nearly half have gone for extra bases -- 13 doubles, two triples, and nine home runs!

Adolis Garcia, TEX | $9,600 (CPT: $14,400)

To the same point made with Seager, we’ll scrap Garcia’s dud performance from game two (0-for-3 with a walk) and look for him to bounce back in Phoenix tonight. His postseason run has been well documented but just as a reminder of just how dominant Garcia has been in the playoffs, he has racked up a .339 AVG, .477 wOBA, .424 ISO, 210 wRC+, and he’s blasted 11 HRs with a postseason record 22 RBIs. His 22nd RBI was as clutch as it gets, coming by way of a walk-off home run in the 11th inning of game one. Garcia posted a 22.1% HR/FB vs. RHPs this season and he doesn’t really have drastically different splits when it comes to facing RHPs or LHPs. He’ll remain a go-to captain candidate tonight.

Ketel Marte, ARI | $9,000 (CPT: $13,500)

These same three players were the captain candidates that I spotlighted in the game one newsletter but it’s hard to find any reason not to feature these specific players. Marte broke the MLB’s postseason hit streak record with his 18th consecutive base hit in Saturday’s game two. In 14 playoff games this postseason, he is now hitting .333 with a .385 wOBA, .222 ISO, and 143 wRC+. Not only does he bring home run and XBH upside to the table, but he’s a stolen base threat and his switch-hitting capability gives him some added protection from the Rangers’ bullpen strategy. Marte also hit for a .303 AVG at home this season with a 139 wRC+ compared to a .250 AVG and 115 wRC+ on the road, so we’ll look for him to continue making a big impact in front of the home crowd tonight.

Other Captains & Core FLEX Plays to Consider

Brandon Pfaadt, ARI | $10,600 (CPT: $15,900)

Corbin Carroll, ARI | $9,200 (CPT: $13,800)

Evan Carter, TEX | $8,400 (CPT: $12,600)

FLEX Plays & Leverage Captain Options:

Christian Walker, ARI | $8,000 (CPT: $12,000)

Walker has not come through with any massive offensive performances in the NLCS or World Series yet, but I have a feeling that things will “click” at the plate soon enough. Despite a paltry .167 AVG in this postseason, Walker is still working counts and living up to his namesake, earning walks and getting on base at a respectable .339 OBP clip. He has also stolen five bases in the playoffs, something he’s not typically known for (11 SBs in the regular season). A big reason for optimism around Walker tonight is his tendency to play better offensively at home. Walker posted a .271 AVG and 131 wRC+ at home this season versus a .246 AVG and 111 wRC+ on the road. Six of the D-Backs’ last nine games have been on the road and, looking back to Walker’s one 2023 postseason home run, that happened to come at home against the Dodgers in game three of the NLDS series. Walker is not overly cheap but I do believe that will help him go overlooked and under-owned tonight due to his lack of huge games as of late. He’ll continue to bat clean-up, so he brings ample RBI and run-scoring upside to the table.

Jonah Heim, TEX | $6,000 (CPT: $9,000)

Heim gets a solid spot in this dangerous Rangers order, batting out of the 6th hole tonight. He’s another hitter who gets an added advantage from his switch-hitting versatility and, though he’s hitting just .222 in the playoffs, two of his 12 hits have left the park. And, while we really shouldn’t place too much weight on such a small sample size, Heim has homered off of Brandon Pfaadt in one of the two at-bats he’s had against him before. Heim is a bit of a streaky player but he has looked more comfortable at the plate in recent games and he won’t be ultra popular in DFS lineups tonight.

Alek Thomas, ARI | $5,600 (CPT: $8,400)

Thomas has been one of the bigger postseason surprises for the D-Backs and he heads into this game having homered, recorded multiple hits, or has a hit plus stolen base in five of his last six games -- the one game he failed to do any of that was when he only had one at-bat in a pinch-hit scenario. Thomas was one of the top prospects in baseball before being called up to the big leagues last season so it’s not like he’s all of a sudden showing off some unexpected talent… it just happens to be on display at the right time. Given Thomas’ cheap salary combined with his home run power and stolen base potential, he makes for one of the better DFS plays on the evening.

Other FLEX/Contrarian Captain Plays to Consider

Mitch Garver, TEX | $6,800 (CPT: $10,200)

Tommy Pham, ARI | $6,400 (CPT: $9,600)

Geraldo Perdomo, ARI | $5,800 (CPT: $8,700)

Relief Pitcher Dart Throws (GPP FLEX Plays Only):

As mentioned above, it’s not uncommon for a relief pitcher to show up as an optimal FLEX play in the perfect lineup, especially in the postseason where bullpens are often used judiciously and with more consistency than the regular season. You may only hope to get a handful of fantasy points out of a relief pitcher, but given their lower DFS price points and the potential for lower-scoring games in a World Series atmosphere, that may be all you need in order for them to come away as an optimal play.

This is obviously very risky and probably not an approach that should be utilized if you’re only rolling out one or two lineups.

Note: You will need to unselect “Remove Non Probables” to view relief pitching options on DraftKings.

Both bullpens come in fresh. None of the top arms have pitched since Friday due to the blowout D-Backs win on Saturday.

Top D-Backs Relievers

Kevin Ginkel, ARI | $4,000

Paul Sewald, ARI | $4,000 (Closer)

Ryan Thompson, ARI | $4,000

Top Rangers Relievers

Josh Sborz, TEX | $4,000

Jose Leclerc, TEX | $4,000 (Closer)

Good luck and enjoy the World Series!