Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

The World Series is proving to feature two evenly matched opponents as the series now heads to Atlanta for game three with things all tied up 1-1. Before we get into some DFS plays for tonight, let’s review the World Series game two perfect DraftKings lineup.

Well, in Wednesday’s newsletter, we had the right idea with Altuve as one of the preferred captain options. While Altuve has shown up at times, overall he has had a fairly underwhelming postseason but he has proven to be a batter that doesn’t stay down for long and that was the case in game two. Unfortunately, in the last newsletter, I chose to highlight the wrong pitcher as a FLEX option. Fried and the Braves defense settled in later in the game but enough damage was done early to knock Fried out of any chance at landing in the optimal lineup. It was Urquidy’s night to shine on the mound as he put together five strong 2-run innings which featured seven strikeouts. Also, once again, we’ve got a relief pitcher that shows up as an optimal play. Kyle Wright wasn’t really on my radar as a RP dart throw but that just goes to show the risk/reward factor of going with bullpen arms in single game DFS lineups. It’s still a strategy I fully endorse (for GPPs) but if a game gets out of hand, neither team is going to feel forced to put their top relievers on the mound (which are the relief pitchers we’re usually going to target).

Even though the first two games haven’t been particularly close on the scoreboard, given how well these teams seem to match-up I believe we want to continue targeting balanced 3-3 builds and 4-2 builds, in favor of both teams. Any sort of 5-1 ‘smash’ build seems unlikely to come away as the optimal approach… at least not for tonight’s game three.

Note: These WS newsletters will be geared towards DraftKings MLB single-game DFS contests -- GPPs, specifically. Plenty of information below should be helpful for building FanDuel lineups as well, but the overall format and pricing differences between FD and DK simply don’t allow for an all-inclusive article to cover the single-game slate for both sites sufficiently.

Two major differences exist between DK and FD single-game MLB contests:

1. FanDuel doesn’t include pitchers within the player pool, DraftKings does (both starting pitchers and relievers)

2. FanDuel doesn’t adjust salaries for its “MVP (2x Points)” and “Star (1.5x Points)” roster positions. DraftKings does adjust salaries by 1.5x for its “Captain (1.5x Points)” roster position.

Alright, let’s jump into some plays to consider for game three!

Quick Weather Note: There could be a few showers in ATL tonight but rain won't be a major threat. Cooler temperatures and 8 mph winds blowing in will make hitting it over the fence a bit more difficult, however.

General Single Game MLB DFS Strategy

As many baseball fans know, postseason games can play out much differently than a regular season game would. Managers are much less hesitant to pull their starters at the first sign of trouble and hitters also adjust their strategy and approach at the plate given their situation in postseason at-bats. As to how that transfers to single game DFS lineup construction on DraftKings, it means we’re almost always going to use the captain slot on a hitter instead of a starting pitcher. The starting pitchers will often be at, or near, the very top of DFS pricing and will not come away as the optimal captain play all too often. As you can see in the perfect lineups from the six ALCS and six NLCS games (pictured below), only once was a pitcher the optimal captain selection (Luis Garcia, ALCS Game 6). For that reason, I’m almost always going to recommend playing a hitter at the captain for DraftKings GPPs.

You’ll also notice in the perfect lineups from the ALCS/NLCS that relief pitchers often came away as optimal FLEX plays. Playing a reliever in your lineups is very much a high risk/high reward approach, but I will be sure to include a few relievers towards the end of these newsletters that could be worth considering.

Perfect DraftKings Lineups from the ALCS/NLCS

Captains & Core FLEX Plays:

Kyle Tucker, HOU | $9,200 (CPT: $13,800)

There is no such thing as a “floor play” in MLB DFS like there is in, say, NBA or even NFL DFS. But Tucker is as close to a floor play as you may get in this series. He’s batting .298 this post season with four HRs, three doubles, and four stolen bases. He’s scored double-digit fantasy points in 8-of-12 postseason games in 2021 and has only “goose egged” in two. For the third game in a row, Tucker will land on my radar as a captain option.

Freddie Freeman, ATL | $10,000 (CPT: $15,000)

Freeman is the most expensive bat on the slate but he has crushed righties at home this season, hitting .327 with a .403 wOBA, .207 ISO, 12 HRs, and a 151 wRC+. Luis Garcia is a RHP who possesses traditional splits, meaning he’s less effective against lefty bats -- .280 AVG, .360 wOBA, .200 ISO, 1.61 HR/9. He has also struggled more on the road this season where his 4.24 ERA is nearly two runs higher than his 2.39 ERA at home. Freddie will need a huge game, which would likely have to include a home run, in order to come away as the optimal captain tonight, but that’s certainly doable.

Yordan Alvarez, HOU | $8,600 (CPT: $12,900)

Ian Anderson has allowed a higher average to RHBs (.232) than LHBs (.206), like Alvarez… however, he’s more prone to giving up big hits and home runs to LHBs and has a .165 ISO and 1.44 HR/9 Rate to that side of the plate this year (compared to a .129 ISO and 0.82 HR/9 to RHBs). As many are aware, Yordan Alvarez is the definition of a power hitter who has muscled out 33 HRs this year (20 HRs vs. RHPs). He brings a huge .395 wOBA and .258 ISO vs. RHPs to the table tonight. If Anderson gets taken deep tonight, Alvarez is the most likely guy in this Astros lineup to be responsible for such a hit.

Other Captains to Consider: Jose Altuve ($9,800 - CPT: $14,700), Ozzie Albies ($9,600 - CPT: $14,400), Eddie Rosario ($7,200 - CPT: $10,800)

FLEX Plays & Leverage Captain Options:

Note: All players highlighted above (and listed in the “Other Captains to Consider” section) fall into this category as well.

Michael Brantley, HOU | $6,400 (CPT: $9,600)

The lack of power keeps Brantley’s home run chances low and thus is more of a FLEX candidate than a captain candidate. But the guy just hits. He’s now 5-for-9 in this series with a pair of doubles and has a .342 AVG versus RHPs in his last 20 games. His 2021 postseason average also sits at a stunning .352. He continues to be super affordable and will maintain his spot batting second in the Houston order.

Yuli Gurriel, HOU | $7,600 (CPT: $11,400)

He hasn’t shown much power against RHPs this season, so I don’t see much home run upside with Gurriel… at least not while Ian Anderson is on the mound. But he has come away with at minimum 6 DKFP in nine straight games. Gurriel has some stolen base potential as well with two stolen bags in his last three games.

Jorge Soler, ATL | $8,400 (CPT: $12,600)

Since coming over to the Braves, Soler has absolutely raked in Truist Park. In 24 home games (since August 1st), Soler hit for a .330 AVG with a .436 wOBA, .261 ISO, and 170 wRC+. He’ll bat in the heart of the order at 5th tonight so he has some healthy RBI potential and he’s always a threat to send one over the fence as well.

Other FLEX Plays to Consider: Alex Bregman ($7,800 - CPT: $11,700), Austin Riley ($9,000 - CPT: $13,500), Ian Anderson ($10,400 - CPT: $15,600)

Relief Pitcher Dart Throws 🎯 (GPP FLEX Only):

As mentioned above, it’s not all too uncommon for a relief pitcher to show up as an optimal FLEX play in the perfect lineup, especially in the postseason where bullpens are often used judiciously and with more consistency than the regular season. You may only hope to get a handful of fantasy points out of a relief pitcher, but given their price points and potential for lower scoring games, that may be all you need in order for them to come away as an optimal play.

Note: This is obviously very risky and probably not an approach that should be utilized if you’re only rolling out less than a handful of lineups.

Yimi Garcia, HOU | $4,000

Tyler Matzek, ATL | $4,000

Brooks Raley, HOU | $4,000

Luke Jackson, ATL | $4,000

Good luck tonight guys and enjoy the World Series!