Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Game one of the World Series is in the books -- time to gear up for game two! Hopefully, you guys found some success in the realm of single-game MLB DFS yesterday. Let’s get a quick look at the perfect lineup (DraftKings) from game one!

Soler earned a mention in yesterday’s newsletter as a “FLEX play and leverage captain option.” It certainly helped his chances of landing in the optimal lineup when he hit the first-ever lead-off home run in the first at-bat of the World Series! He came away around 2%-4% owned in the captain slot, so if you landed on him there, great work!

Also, as mentioned, with the short leash on starting pitchers (or, unfortunately in Charlie Morton’s case, when an injury comes into play), relief pitchers are often making the optimal lineups in single game contests much more often in the postseason than they would in the regular season. Yesterday we saw not one, but two “relief” pitchers come away as optimal plays. I but “relief” in quotation marks because Jake Odorizzi was priced as a starter ($9,400) so there’s no realistic shot that many people should have considered him in DFS yesterday. After Morton’s injury, AJ Minter was called upon to cover 2.2 innings and throw a career high in pitches (43) which led to 3 K, 3 H, 1 ER, and he put himself in line to earn the win -- good for 12.2 DKFP. At a price of $4,000 (as almost all relief pitchers are priced at on DK), that was enough to land him in the perfect lineup. From a GPP perspective, I would recommend keeping the strategy to play relievers in play because they’re almost always going to be under around 5% owned -- that is major leverage on a single game MLB slate!

Note: These WS newsletters will be geared towards DraftKings MLB single-game DFS contests -- GPPs, specifically. Plenty of information below should be helpful for building FanDuel lineups as well, but the overall format and pricing differences between FD and DK simply don’t allow for an all-inclusive article to cover the single-game slate for both sites sufficiently.

Two major differences exist between DK and FD single-game MLB contests:

1. FanDuel doesn’t include pitchers within the player pool, DraftKings does (both starting pitchers and relievers)

2. FanDuel doesn’t adjust salaries for its “MVP (2x Points)” and “Star (1.5x Points)” roster positions. DraftKings does adjust salaries by 1.5x for its “Captain (1.5x Points)” roster position.

Alright, let’s jump into some plays to consider for game two!

General Single Game MLB DFS Strategy

As many baseball fans know, postseason games can play out much differently than a regular season game would. Managers are much less hesitant to pull their starters at the first sign of trouble and hitters also adjust their strategy and approach at the plate given their situation in postseason at-bats. As to how that transfers to single game DFS lineup construction on DraftKings, it means we’re almost always going to use the captain slot on a hitter instead of a starting pitcher. The starting pitchers will often be at, or near, the very top of DFS pricing and will not come away as the optimal captain play all too often. As you can see in the perfect lineups from the six ALCS and six NLCS games (pictured below), only once was a pitcher the optimal captain selection (Luis Garcia, ALCS Game 6). For that reason, I’m almost always going to recommend playing a hitter at the captain for DraftKings GPPs.

You’ll also notice in the perfect lineups from the ALCS/NLCS that relief pitchers often came away as optimal FLEX plays. Playing a reliever in your lineups is very much a high risk/high reward approach, but I will be sure to include a few relievers towards the end of these newsletters that could be worth considering.

Perfect DraftKings Lineups from the ALCS/NLCS

Captains & Core FLEX Plays:

Austin Riley, ATL | $8,000 (CPT: $12,000)

In his lone 2021 postseason start, Urquidy got rocked by Boston where he allowed five earned runs on five hits (one HR) and two walks across only 1.2 IP. He’s not a bad starting pitcher whatsoever but he’s posted some poor reverse splits this season which has led to more power and production to RHBs (.318 wOBA, .214 ISO, 1.82 HR/9). Over the course of the season, Riley has been Atlanta’s most consistent power hitter versus RHPs -- .307 AVG, .396 wOBA, .249 ISO. Riley scorched two baseballs off of Houston pitching last night; one with an exit velo of 115.8 mph (!), which resulted in an RBI double, and another with an exit velo of 107.2 mph, which resulted in a 360 foot flyout. I believe he’s one of the better bets to have a big game today with the potential to go yard.

Jose Altuve, HOU | $9,800 (CPT: $14,700)

Following an 0-for-5 night (with 3 Ks), Altuve is only hitting .178 this postseason. However, he’s usually not a batter who stays down long and he has as much potential as anyone to have a multi-hit night that could net him 20+ DKFP. Max Fried doesn’t give up much of anything to either side of the plate, but Houston’s offense as a whole tends to respond to Altuve’s success so I would expect him to come out aggressive tonight as the Astros look to even the series. Given his high price and recent struggles, I doubt many will look to pay up for Altuve as captain as well so there could be some decent leverage to be had here.

Kyle Tucker, HOU | $9,600 (CPT: $14,400)

Tucker will likely fall within captain consideration every game of this postseason so, to no surprise, he’ll earn a mention in this section for a second consecutive day. Despite hitting closer to the back of the lineup at 6th, he’s usually going to be presented with plenty of RBI opportunities, and the lefty-on-lefty match-up with Fried doesn’t concern me all too much. In his last 20 games versus LHPs (33 PA), Tucker is batting .323 with a .464 wOBA, .452 ISO, four HRs, and a 201 wRC+. He’s the hottest power bat in this lineup right now.

Other Captains to Consider: Freddie Freeman ($10,000 - CPT: $15,000), Eddie Rosario ($6,000 - CPT: $9,000), Yordan Alvarez ($9,200 - CPT: $13,800)

FLEX Plays & Leverage Captain Options:

Note: All players highlighted above (and listed in the “Other Captains to Consider” section) fall into this category as well.

Adam Duvall, ATL | $7,200 (CPT: $10,800)

Duvall doesn’t really hit for batting average (.237 AVG vs. RHPs) but he very clearly hits for power and his .268 ISO vs. RHPs this season is the highest among Braves batters. This should give him a boost against Urquidy who, as mentioned above with Riley, does surrender more power and home runs to right-handed bats. While his aggression at the plate has resulted in a high 29.5% kRate this postseason, he’s almost always swinging for the fences when he’s out there.

Yuli Gurriel, HOU | $7,800 (CPT: $11,700)

Gurriel has a .351 AVG against LHPs this season to go along with a strong .415 wOBA and .206 ISO. He was a couple of feet short of homering off of LHP Tyler Matzek in game one with a 107.0 mph single that bounced high off the outfield wall (and led to him getting thrown out at second). He’s making plenty of contact this postseason and has a .349 AVG across 43 at-bats so he should be one of the better mid-range floor plays and has some contrarian captain upside as well.

Max Fried, ATL | $10,800 (CPT: $16,200)

With the injury to Charlie Morton, which will end his postseason, the Braves will feel some pressure to preserve their bullpen as much as possible for the remainder of the World Series. That should allow for Fried’s leash to be extended a bit more than his counterpart Jose Urquidy, so if you’re going to roster a starting pitcher, Fried feels like the preferred play. Despite struggling in his previous postseason start, which was on the road against the Dodgers in game five of the NLCS, he’s actually been a bit better on the road this season where he has posted a 24.6% kRate, 3.23 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, and averaged 18.2 DKFP. Atlanta will want to get, at minimum, six full innings out of Fried tonight so even if he gets into a bit of trouble, he may be left out there to battle his way out of any potential jam.

Others to Consider: Carlos Correa ($8,600 - CPT: $12,900), Jorge Soler ($7,600 - CPT: $11,400), Dansby Swanson ($7,400 - CPT: $11,100), Jose Siri ($4,000 - CPT: $6,000)

Relief Pitcher Dart Throws 🎯 (GPP FLEX Only):

As mentioned above, it’s not all too uncommon for a relief pitcher to show up as an optimal FLEX play in the perfect lineup, especially in the postseason where bullpens are often used judiciously and with more consistency than the regular season. You may only hope to get a handful of fantasy points out of a relief pitcher, but given their price points and potential for lower scoring games, that may be all you need in order for them to come away as an optimal play.

Note: This is obviously very risky and probably not an approach that should be utilized if you’re only rolling out less than a handful of lineups.

Ryan Pressly, HOU | $4,000

Tyler Matzek, ATL | $4,000

Brooks Raley, HOU | $4,000

Will Smith, ATL | $4,000

Good luck tonight guys and enjoy the World Series!