Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Welcome back to a special edition of the LineStar Daily Ledger! Game one of the World Series gets underway on Friday at 8:00 p.m. ET, so we thought we’d throw out a quick newsletter for those who wish to dabble in some single-game DFS contests! There are some hefty tournaments posted for each World Series game, so why not try to go for one more final MLB takedown before the off-season arrives?!

Note: These WS newsletters will be geared towards DraftKings MLB single-game DFS contests – GPPs, specifically. Plenty of information below should be helpful for building FanDuel lineups as well, but the overall format and pricing differences between FD and DK simply don’t allow for an all-inclusive article to cover the single-game slate for both sites sufficiently.

Two major differences exist between DK and FD single-game MLB contests:

1. FanDuel doesn’t include pitchers within the player pool, DraftKings does (both starting pitchers and relievers).

2. FanDuel doesn’t adjust salaries for its “MVP (2x Points)” and “Star (1.5x Points)” roster positions. DraftKings does adjust salaries by 1.5x for its “Captain (1.5x Points)” roster position.

Without further ado, let’s hop into some strategy and plays for tonight’s inaugural game one of The Fall Classic!

General Single-Game MLB DFS Strategy

As many baseball fans know, postseason games can play out much differently than regular-season games. Managers tend to be less hesitant to pull their starters at the first sign of trouble and hitters also adjust their strategy and approach given the situation at the plate in postseason at-bats. As to how that transfers to single-game DFS lineup construction on DraftKings, it means we’re usually going to use the captain slot on a hitter instead of a starting pitcher. The starting pitchers will often be at, or near, the very top of DFS pricing, and it can be more difficult for them to come away as the optimal captain. As you can see in the perfect lineups from the NLCS and ALCS games (pictured below), a hitter ended up as the optimal captain in 12 of the combined 14 games. Depending on the starting pitcher(s), they could absolutely fall under captain consideration, but I would tend to recommend playing a hitter at the captain for DraftKings GPPs.

You’ll also notice in the perfect lineups from the ALCS/NLCS that relief pitchers came away as optimal FLEX plays in 8-of-14 games. Playing a reliever in your lineups is very much a high-risk approach because there is no guarantee that a specific reliever will even make an appearance in a particular game. With that said, I will be sure to list off a few relievers towards the end of these newsletters that could be worth considering as “dart throw” plays.

One final note to make, using the ALCS and NLCS results as a reference, is the frequency in which the perfect lineup consisted of a 5-1 stack -- meaning, five players from one team were optimal plays while only one player from the opposing team cracked the optimal. This tends to happen when a game is very lopsided, and 5-1 optimal lineups occurred seven times in the 14 LCS games. I point this out to say that you should not hesitate to go extremely one-sided with some 5-1 builds if you believe any particular game could turn into a one-sided affair.

Captains & Core FLEX Plays:

Corey Seager, TEX | $9,600 (CPT: $14,400)

Seager went yard twice in the ALCS during games four and seven, but his biggest impacts came during the Wild Card round against the Rays and in the ALDS versus the Orioles. Seager scored at least 14 DKFP in four of those five games. In total, across 12 postseason games, Seager is getting on base at an absurd .483 clip while hitting .333 with a .466 wOBA, .311 ISO, and 202 wRC+. What that massive 202 wRC+ tells us is that, offensively, Seager has essentially been worth two league-average players by himself. Seager could continue to make a statement against D-Backs game one starter RHP Zac Gallen. Gallen has not looked sharp in these playoffs, posting a 5.24 ERA, 5.28 xFIP, and 1.48 WHIP in four starts (22.1 IP). Gallen also has traditional splits, so he is less effective against LHBs, such as Seager, who has a career .333 AVG against Gallen in 21 at-bats.

Adolis Garcia, TEX | $9,200 (CPT: $13,800)

There is not a hotter hitter heading into this World Series than Adolis Garcia. In this postseason, Garcia is hitting .327 with a monstrous .457 wOBA, .423 ISO, and 195 wRC+. He has accounted for 20 RBI while blasting seven home runs. Five of his postseason home runs came in the Rangers’ final four games in the ALCS. It was simply a jaw-dropping series performance that made Garcia the most no-brainer ALCS MVP selection in recent memory. D-Backs starter Zac Gallen has been plagued by the long ball, giving up six HRs in his four 2023 postseason starts, resulting in a lofty 2.42 HR/9 Rate. As long as Arizona doesn’t elect to pitch around Garcia, he sets up as a go-to captain play in game one.

Ketel Marte, ARI | $9,000 (CPT: $13,500)

There was a stretch there where Marte really looked like the only productive hitter in the D-Backs lineup. Some other guys finally stepped up but Marte has played a massive role in this postseason run while consistently getting on base and keeping the D-Backs in some of those close games with some crucial runs and RBIs. In 12 postseason games, Marte is hitting .358 with a .416 wOBA, .245 ISO, and 164 wRC+, adding two stolen bases. Switch hitters, like Marte, always have a touch of an added advantage in the playoffs since managers are often quick to turn to their bullpens at the first sign of significant trouble to set up favorable righty/righty or lefty/lefty match-ups. Marte is more immune to those bullpen strategies.

Other Captains & Core FLEX Plays to Consider

Nathan Eovaldi, TEX | $11,000 (CPT: $16,500)

Corbin Carroll, ARI | $9,400 (CPT: $14,100)

Evan Carter, TEX | $8,200 (CPT: $12,300)

FLEX Plays & Leverage Captain Options:

Gabriel Moreno, ARI | $7,200 (CPT: $10,800)

Barring any surprise shakeup in the D-Backs order, Moreno will bat either 3rd or 5th in the lineup as he has done in every 2023 postseason game. That makes him one of the cheapest hitters with a premium batting order position. Moreno has had some quiet games but he has been on base in 11-of-12 playoff games while hitting for a respectable .279 AVG, .364 wOBA, .233 ISO, and 129 wRC+. Moreno has knocked out three postseason home runs with nine RBI. He owns one of the better ceilings among the non-stud players in this inaugural World Series match-up.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI | $6,400 (CPT: $9,600)

Gurriel had been having a fairly ho-hum postseason run up until game three of the NLCS. Across the final five games of the NLCS, Gurriel contributed seven hits, including three extra-base hits (two 2B, one HR) and two stolen bases while averaging 10.4 DKFP/gm. Gurriel possesses arguably the most home run power among the cheaper hitters and he should see some RBI opportunities in his typical 6th spot in the batting order. If you’ve read any of my regular season MLB newsletters, you’ll know that I don’t lean on BvP very often, however, Gurriel owns the best BvP of any player in this game. In 18 at-bats against Rangers game one starter Nathan Eovaldi, Gurriel has seven hits (.389 AVG) with a .450 OBP and a pair of home runs.

Alek Thomas, ARI | $5,600 (CPT: $8,400)

With a righty starting for Texas (Eovaldi), lefty batter Alek Thomas should find himself in the game one starting lineup. There is a very real possibility that the D-Backs would not be in this World Series without the clutch factor of Alek Thomas, who knocked an equalizer pinch-hit two-run homer in the 8th inning of the NLCS game four, in which Arizona went on to win 6-5 and tied the series at 2-2 instead of falling 3-1. Thomas is hitting only .212 in the playoffs but he has hammered four home runs, scored seven runs, and put up six RBI while tacking on a stolen base. He’ll set up as one of the more appealing value targets in this game.

Other FLEX/Contrarian Captain Plays to Consider

Marcus Semien, TEX | $8,800 (CPT: $13,200)

Nathaniel Lowe, TEX | $6,800 (CPT: $10,200)

Geraldo Perdomo, ARI | $5,200 (CPT: $7,800)

Relief Pitcher Dart Throws (GPP FLEX Plays Only):

As mentioned above, it’s not uncommon for a relief pitcher to show up as an optimal FLEX play in the perfect lineup, especially in the postseason where bullpens are often used judiciously and with more consistency than the regular season. You may only hope to get a handful of fantasy points out of a relief pitcher, but given their lower DFS price points and the potential for lower-scoring games in a World Series atmosphere, that may be all you need in order for them to come away as an optimal play.

This is obviously very risky and probably not an approach that should be utilized if you’re only rolling out one or two lineups.

Note: You will need to unselect “Remove Non Probables” to view relief pitching options on DraftKings.

Neither team’s top bullpen arms have pitched since Monday (Rangers) and Tuesday (D-Backs), so they’ll be well-rested coming into game one. Barring an early blowout, at least three or four of the guys listed below should make an appearance on Friday.

Top D-Backs Relievers

Kevin Ginkel, ARI | $4,000

Paul Sewald, ARI | $4,000 (Closer)

Ryan Thompson, ARI | $4,000

Top Rangers Relievers

Josh Sborz, TEX | $4,000

Jose Leclerc, TEX | $4,000 (Closer)

Aroldis Chapman, TEX | $4,000

Good luck and enjoy the World Series!