Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Welcome back to a special edition of the LineStar Daily Ledger! Game one of the World Series is just hours away so we thought we’d throw out a quick newsletter for those who wish to dabble in some single-game DFS contests! There are some huge tournament prize pools posted for each World Series game, so why not try to go for one more final MLB takedown before the off-season arrives?

As a Braves fan, my excitement is through the roof, but I will be putting my bias aside and focusing on highlighting some of the most favorable DFS plays on both sides for each World Series game.

Note: These WS newsletters will be geared towards DraftKings MLB single-game DFS contests -- GPPs, specifically. Plenty of information below should be helpful for building FanDuel lineups as well, but the overall format and pricing differences between FD and DK simply don’t allow for an all-inclusive article to cover the single-game slate for both sites sufficiently.

Two major differences exist between DK and FD single-game MLB contests:

1. FanDuel doesn’t include pitchers within the player pool, DraftKings does (both starting pitchers and relievers)

2. FanDuel doesn’t adjust salaries for its “MVP (2x Points)” and “Star (1.5x Points)” roster positions. DraftKings does adjust salaries by 1.5x for its “Captain (1.5x Points)” roster position.

Without further ado, let’s hop into some plays for tonight’s inaugural game one of The Fall Classic!

General Single Game MLB DFS Strategy

As many baseball fans know, postseason games can play out much differently than a regular season game would. Managers are much less hesitant to pull their starters at the first sign of trouble and hitters also adjust their strategy and approach at the plate given their situation in postseason at-bats. As to how that transfers to single game DFS lineup construction on DraftKings, it means we’re almost always going to use the captain slot on a hitter instead of a starting pitcher. The starting pitchers will often be at, or near, the very top of DFS pricing and will not come away as the optimal captain play all too often. As you can see in the perfect lineups from the six ALCS and six NLCS games (pictured below), only once was a pitcher the optimal captain selection (Luis Garcia, ALCS Game 6). For that reason, I’m almost always going to recommend playing a hitter at the captain for DraftKings GPPs.

You’ll also notice in the perfect lineups from the ALCS/NLCS that relief pitchers often came away as optimal FLEX plays. Playing a reliever in your lineups is very much a high risk/high reward approach, but I will be sure to include a few relievers towards the end of these newsletters that could be worth considering.

Perfect DraftKings Lineups from the ALCS/NLCS

Captains & Core FLEX Plays:

Kyle Tucker, HOU | $9,600 (CPT: $14,400)

Tucker has been raking in the 2021 postseason, hitting for a .275 AVG, .388 wOBA, .350 ISO, and 151 wRC+. He’s hit four homers in these playoffs while driving in 15 and stealing three bases. Charlie Morton has actually held LHBs to a lower average this season but does give up more power to that side of the plate. The Astros are fairly intent on keeping him slotted in at 6th or 7th in the batting order (if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it) so, while that may not be ideal, he’s been producing great all-around numbers despite hitting towards the back half of the lineup.

Freddie Freeman, ATL | $9,800 (CPT: $14,700)

After starting off the two games of the NLCS in a major funk (0-for-8 with 7 Ks), Freeman rallied the final four games of the series going 6-for-13 with a pair of homers, a double, four RBIs, six walks, and even added in a stolen base. Thus far in the postseason, Freddie is hitting .294 with a .455 OBP and a massive 178 wRC+. People may be turned off by the lefty-on-lefty match-up with Valdez, but Valdez has actually been slightly worse against LHBs this season. Valdez also relies heavily on ground ball outs (70.3% GB% in the regular season, 72.1% in the 2021 postseason), and Freeman has only hit into a 31.8% GB% this postseason.

Eddie Rosario, ATL | $6,200 (CPT: $9,300)

I’m not sure how you could rule the NLCS MVP out of captain consideration given the postseason he has stitched together. In 38 at-bats this postseason, Rosario is hitting an absurd .474 with a .545 wOBA, .316 ISO, .524 OBP, 243 wRC+ and he’s striking out only 11.9% of the time. Again, some may worry about the lefty-on-lefty match-up with Valdez, but when a hitter is this hot, you throw most traditional logic and reason out of the window. Rosario was the optimal captain play on DraftKings in three of the six NLCS games. It certainly helps that DraftKings has refused to raise his salary, for some reason.

Other Captains to Consider: Yordan Alvarez ($9,400 - CPT: $14,100), Austin Riley ($8,600 - CPT: $12,900), Jose Altuve ($10,000 - CPT: $15,000)

FLEX Plays & Leverage Captain Options:

Charlie Morton, ATL | $10,800 (CPT: $16,200)

I don’t believe you have to force in either starting pitcher tonight, but Morton would seemingly be the preferred DFS option. If either guy gets into trouble, Morton’s leash should simply be a bit longer than Valdez’s. Morton also allowed a mere .200 batting average to opposing hitters this season, the 5th lowest AVG among qualified starters in the entire MLB. He has 15 postseason starts under his belt across 75.2 IP in which he has come away with a 3.45 ERA, 3.56 xFIP, and .218 opp AVG. In 121 PA versus the current Astros lineup, Morton has allowed a respectable .250 AVG and .307 wOBA while posting a 27.3% kRate.

Michael Brantley, HOU | $6,400 (CPT: $9,600)

Brantley has just eight home runs this season, so he’s not the best guy to target at captain since we usually want hitters with some high-end power rostered there. But he makes for a strong FLEX candidate due to his straightforward hitting prowess. He’s batting .311 this postseason and, assuming he continues to bat 2nd in the order, he’ll carry some moderately strong run/RBI upside as well. Brantley will rarely give you a goose egg and won’t break the bank in DFS lineups either.

Jorge Soler, ATL | $8,200 (CPT: $12,300)

After missing nearly the entire NLCS due to testing positive for COVID, Soler is back in the starting lineup and draws the leadoff honors for the Braves tonight. Since August 1st, Soler has hit .262 with a .372 wOBA, .262 ISO, 131 wRC+ and 14 HRs. He actually hasn’t been great against LHPs but he’s pretty much going to home runs nearly every time he’s at the plate (#SolerPower) and he doesn’t hit into an incredibly high amount of ground balls, which should come in handy against ground ball specialist Framber Valdez.

Others to Consider: Alex Bregman ($7,600 - CPT: $11,400), Joc Pederson ($7,000 - CPT: $10,500), Carlos Correa ($7,800 - CPT: $11,700), Martin Maldonado ($4,000 - CPT: $6,000)

Relief Pitcher Wildcards (GPP FLEX Plays Only):

As mentioned above, it’s not all too uncommon for a relief pitcher to show up as an optimal FLEX play in the perfect lineup, especially in the postseason where bullpens are often used judiciously and with more consistency than the regular season. You may only hope to get a handful of fantasy points out of a relief pitcher, but given their price points and potential for lower scoring games, that may be all you need in order for them to come away as an optimal play.

Note: This is obviously very risky and probably not an approach that should be utilized if you’re only rolling out less than a handful of lineups.

Tyler Matzek, ATL | $4,000

Ryan Pressley, HOU | $4,000

AJ Minter, ATL | $4,000

Kendall Graveman, HOU | $4,000

Good luck tonight guys and enjoy the World Series!