Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

Welcome back to a special edition of the LineStar Daily Ledger! Game one of the World Series is just hours away, so we thought we’d throw out a quick newsletter for those who wish to dabble in some single-game DFS contests! There are some huge tournament prize pools posted for each World Series game, so why not try to go for one more final MLB takedown before the off-season arrives?!

Note: These WS newsletters will be geared towards DraftKings MLB single-game DFS contests – GPPs, specifically. Plenty of information below should be helpful for building FanDuel lineups as well, but the overall format and pricing differences between FD and DK simply don’t allow for an all-inclusive article to cover the single-game slate for both sites sufficiently.

Two major differences exist between DK and FD single-game MLB contests:

1. FanDuel doesn’t include pitchers within the player pool, DraftKings does (both starting pitchers and relievers)

2. FanDuel doesn’t adjust salaries for its “MVP (2x Points)” and “Star (1.5x Points)” roster positions. DraftKings does adjust salaries by 1.5x for its “Captain (1.5x Points)” roster position.

Let’s hop into some plays for tonight’s inaugural game one of The Fall Classic without further ado!

General Single Game MLB DFS Strategy

As many baseball fans know, postseason games can play out much differently than a regular season game would. Managers tend to be less hesitant to pull their starters at the first sign of trouble and hitters also adjust their strategy and approach given the situation at the plate in postseason at-bats. As to how that transfers to single-game DFS lineup construction on DraftKings, it means we’re usually going to use the captain slot on a hitter instead of a starting pitcher. The starting pitchers will often be at, or near, the very top of DFS pricing and it can be more difficult for them to come away as the optimal captain. As you can see in the perfect lineups from the five NLCS and four ALCS games (pictured below), a hitter was the optimal captain in five of the combined nine games. Depending on the starting pitcher(s), they could absolutely fall under captain consideration, but I will tend to recommend playing a hitter at the captain for DraftKings GPPs.

You’ll also notice in the perfect lineups from the ALCS/NLCS that relief pitchers came away as optimal FLEX plays in all nine games. Playing a reliever in your lineups is very much a high-risk/high-reward approach because there is no guarantee that a specific reliever will even make an appearance in a particular game. With that said, I will be sure to list off a few relievers towards the end of these newsletters that could be worth considering.

Perfect DraftKings Lineups from the NLCS/ALCS

Captains & Core FLEX Plays:

Justin Verlander, HOU | $10,800 (CPTN: $16,200)

JV brings 197.2 innings of postseason pitching experience to the mound tonight. This season, he posted a career-best 1.75 ERA en route to an 18-4 record. The Mariners managed to jump on him early in game one of the ALDS, though it was a game that the Astros managed to come back and win. He bounced back with a monster performance in game one of the ALCS where he held the Yankees to one run on three hits while striking out 11 across 6.0 IP. The Phillies bats come into this series with a ton of momentum and should be able to do much more at the plate than what the Yankees managed in the ALCS. However, in Verlander’s lone appearance against the Phillies this season, he threw five no-hit innings (77 pitches), allowing just one walk and striking out 10 batters. If this ends up being a low-scoring opening World Series match-up, Verlander has a great chance to come away as the optimal captain. However, due to his high DFS salary, if you roll with him at CPTN you may need to get a little risky by also rostering a relief pitcher (in GPPs) within the same lineup.

Bryce Harper, PHI | $10,000 (CPTN: $15,000)

Postseason pitching is supposed to be much more difficult for hitters, but Bryce Harper didn’t get that memo. In 11 games this October, Harper has mashed for an otherworldly .419 AVG, .564 wOBA, and .488 ISO, with five HRs, 11 RBI, and a 271 wRC+. There is no question that Harper has been the offensive catalyst to this unlikely Phillies’ World Series run. You can guarantee that Harper will be swinging for the fences as he hunts for his first career World Series ring.

Jeremy Pena, HOU | $7,400 (CPTN: $11,100)

Pena is another slugger that has put on an incredible postseason, and he’s doing it as a rookie! In seven postseason games, Pena has hit .303 with a .418 wOBA, .364 ISO, and 179 wRC+, with three HRs, five RBI, and seven runs scored. He had noticeably better offensive splits at home this season so Pena’s postseason success could continue. He’ll draw a high upside spot in the lineup and slot in at second in the order. He’ll also bring home run upside in this game without costing nearly as much as some of the other preferred captain candidates.

Other Captains to Consider:

Yordan Alvarez, HOU | $9,800 (CPTN: $14,700)

Kyle Schwarber, PHI | $9,600 (CPTN: $14,400)

Rhys Hoskins, PHI | $7,600 (CPTN: $11,400)

FLEX Plays & Leverage Captain Options:

Aaron Nola, PHI | $10,600 (CPTN: $15,900)

Verlander is going to be the preferred SP option tonight, but there are plenty of reasons why Aaron Nola is taking the mound as the Phillies' game one World Series starter. Nola posted a 29.1% kRate and a career-low 0.96 WHIP this season while allowing just 0.83 HR/9. The Padres were able to do some damage against him in the NLCS but in Nola’s other two postseason performances this October, he pitched well enough to earn himself 28 DKFP (NLWC Game 2 @ STL) and 25.3 DKFP (NLDS Game 3 vs. ATL). In Nola’s only start against the Astros this season, he pitched 6.2 pristine innings allowing no runs on two hits and striking out nine -- a performance that netted him 35.8 DKFP. If the Phillies get the early momentum going, Nola has it in him to pitch 6+ strong innings tonight.

JT Realmuto, PHI | $8,800 (CPTN: $13,200)

Realmuto has hit .244 this postseason with a .319 wOBA, .146 ISO, and 104 wRC+. Not incredible results, but by postseason standards, that’s some solid production. He has blasted a couple of HRs and scored 10 runs for the Phillies in this World Series run. And, in 11 postseason games, he has posted just one goose egg fantasy performance. So, you can feel pretty good that Realmuto won’t leave you with a big fat zero when you throw him into a lineup. Given Realmuto’s speed, he’s also a candidate to steal bases in this series. Hitting just ahead of the red-hot Bryce Harper is also a nice plus.

Yuli Gurriel, HOU | $6,000 (CPTN: $9,000)

Gurriel should be a popular source of value in DFS lineups tonight. In his seven games this postseason, he has not struck out a single time and is hitting .367 with a pair of HRs and a 168 wRC+. Gurriel has proven to be a tough out this October, and he has scored at least five DKFP in 6-of-7 postseason games. That may not seem too remarkable, but bases do not come easy this time of year.

Others to Consider:

Alex Bregman, HOU | $9,200 (CPTN: $13,800)

Bryson Stott, PHI | $6,400 (CPTN: $9,600)

Chas McCormick, HOU | $6,200 (CPTN: $9,300)

Relief Pitcher Wildcards (GPP FLEX Plays Only):

As mentioned above, it’s not uncommon for a relief pitcher to show up as an optimal FLEX play in the perfect lineup, especially in the postseason where bullpens are often used judiciously and with more consistency than the regular season. You may only hope to get a handful of fantasy points out of a relief pitcher, but given their lower DFS price points and the potential for lower-scoring games, that may be all you need in order for them to come away as an optimal play.

Note: This is obviously very risky and probably not an approach that should be utilized if you’re only rolling out less than a handful of lineups.

Seranthony Dominguez, PHI | $6,400

Ryan Pressly, HOU | $5,600

Jose Alvarado, PHI | $5,400

Hector Neris, HOU | $4,000

Good luck tonight guys and enjoy the World Series!